NHL · resolved market
Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38df813b4095c26874fd74944e5cf80e66469b3ff1deb5a7e2d13c1f6a69d654
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Maple Leafsof Maple Leafs, Devils
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,648
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,648
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,648 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d2d…395ebacked Maple Leafs | 24c | 799.88$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.91 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9904…c488backed Devils | 76c | 197.37$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd53…a861backed Devils | 75c | 173$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.75 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…5e22backed Devils | 74c | 123$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.02 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…af43backed Devils | 74c | 118$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.32 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…5526backed Devils | 75c | 106$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa225…ffa6backed Devils | 76c | 78.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Maple Leafs | 24c | 73.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.72 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9882…6a79backed Maple Leafs | 27c | 70.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.37 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +123%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Devils | 73c | 70.37$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.37 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…c4e5backed Devils | 74c | 60$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f0…327cbacked Devils | 74c | 55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -4.9wins | -0.21per pick | 56cpaid | -35%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8092…494abacked Devils | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f3…f96dbacked Devils | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25c3…eb62backed Maple Leafs | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…3d1cbacked Maple Leafs | 25c | 47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8587…acaabacked Devils | 76c | 46.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9171…aba5backed Devils | 76c | 46.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81da…421bbacked Devils | 76c | 46.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…6070backed Maple Leafs | 26c | 46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4a…86d4backed Devils | 76c | 41.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…d253backed Maple Leafs | 26c | 41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.34 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e97…d3b6backed Devils | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 64cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70bd…1b9ebacked Devils | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfafb…6de6backed Devils | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f9…e537backed Devils | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb355…9986backed Devils | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91c6…33e3backed Devils | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Devils | 73c | 18.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…cd92backed Devils | 76c | 14.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)this page
- Devils vs. Maple LeafsMaple Leafs won
- Devils vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5Under won
- Devils vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Devils (-1.5)Maple Leafs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.