NBA · resolved market
Hawks vs. Thunder: O/U 235.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61c2cceff893d981d06aaeda4850be80e7c9022e9b254a550c482874d78c2394
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $88,227
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,417
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,227 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf42…d698backed Under | 50c | 60,000$29,981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,980.82 | 170 | 31.8%54 W · 116 L | -24.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcccc…dbddbacked Over | 50c | 28,570$14,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,285 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 50c | 10,389$5,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,200 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Under | 50c | 10,000$4,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,994.98 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6184…79a2backed Over | 50c | 5,340$2,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,670 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Over | 50c | 4,174$2,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,087 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…0888backed Over | 50c | 3,717$1,859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,858.5 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x535b…25a9backed Over | 54c | 3,674$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,673.64 | 125 | 55.2%69 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26eb…22d0backed Over | 50c | 2,478$1,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,239.2 | 277 | 35%97 W · 180 L | -30.7wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…32c2backed Under | 55c | 2,455$1,348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,348.06 | 415 | 53.3%221 W · 194 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89bd…3f72backed Over | 50c | 2,374$1,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,187 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xece7…6979backed Over | 52c | 1,796$935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860.26 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 50c | 1,546$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$778.46 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 1,390$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.15 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4278…0e92backed Over | 52c | 1,365$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655 | 416 | 52.2%217 W · 199 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Over | 50c | 1,310$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.07 | 715 | 47.7%341 W · 374 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Under | 46c | 1,070$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.2 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…4547backed Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 193 | 51.8%100 W · 93 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51b…9606backed Over | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.39 | 105 | 41%43 W · 62 L | -11.1wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…530fbacked Over | 50c | 749.05$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.53 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -12.3wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Over | 51c | 676.39$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.43 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 51c | 588$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.12 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9519…3b2ebacked Over | 54c | 555.56$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.56 | 178 | 56.2%100 W · 78 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Over | 50c | 370$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 45c | 277.82$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.8 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 55c | 215$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.25 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 237 | 48.1%114 W · 123 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15a3…718ebacked Over | 52c | 150$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 113 | 51.3%58 W · 55 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83fc…13ccbacked Over | 50c | 149.15$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.16 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 47c | 143.56$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.86 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46bd…37e8backed Under | 49c | 142.86$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 168 | 37.5%63 W · 105 L | -20.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…0742backed Under | 50c | 140$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over | 48c | 125$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Over | 51c | 121.5$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.54 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Over | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 334 | 42.8%143 W · 191 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d29…4083backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 173 | 41%71 W · 102 L | -10.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Over | 50c | 72.33$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.17 | 734 | 45.5%334 W · 400 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 50c | 66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b69…c932backed Over | 51c | 65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +90.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 49c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb3…c801backed Over | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Over | 49c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de1…2d12backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 169 | 68.6%116 W · 53 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec94…931ebacked Under | 50c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…5196backed Under | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 103 | 37.9%39 W · 64 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 38c | 32.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa64b…1e4bbacked Over | 47c | 30.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea0e…a5dabacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…259dbacked Over | 52c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 50c | 20.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Over | 50c | 20.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hawks vs. Thunder: O/U 235.5this page
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds Over 9.5Yes won
- Hawks vs. ThunderThunder won
- Hawks vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineHawks won
- Hawks vs. Thunder: O/U 232.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Thunder: O/U 233.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Thunder: O/U 236.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Thunder: O/U 237.5Over won
- Spread: Thunder (-12.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Thunder (-15.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Thunder (-16.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Thunder (-17.5)Hawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.