NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-15.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x888bb84db5a89c309a91c658f4150e55d6f0b0a9c27c98de75e0e4afeb28ccbc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hawksof Thunder, Hawks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,126
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,386
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,126 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Thunder | 55c | 2,916$1,611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,610.81 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Thunder | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Thunder | 56c | 1,699$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945.33 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4236…7c19backed Hawks | 45c | 1,123$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Thunder | 47c | 795.58$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.32 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Thunder | 56c | 589$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.84 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69db…283abacked Hawks | 52c | 575.72$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.72 | 150 | 34.7%52 W · 98 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Hawks | 44c | 565.11$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.46 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ea…f625backed Thunder | 52c | 464.92$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.76 | 243 | 30.9%75 W · 168 L | -11.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Thunder | 55c | 422.98$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.64 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Hawks | 45c | 391.46$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.47 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Hawks | 49c | 348.65$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.24 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Thunder | 51c | 310$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.1 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Hawks | 47c | 204$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.22 | 446 | 48%214 W · 232 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Thunder | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Hawks | 44c | 157$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.92 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Hawks | 59c | 140$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.4 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7b…a23cbacked Hawks | 64c | 140$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Thunder | 54c | 129.63$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 818 | 45.7%374 W · 444 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked Hawks | 56c | 107.68$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.68 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | +9.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Hawks | 50c | 89.18$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.82 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Thunder | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa4…5332backed Hawks | 45c | 73$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +109.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Hawks | 44c | 67.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.65 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Thunder | 51c | 65.29$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…152cbacked Hawks | 48c | 54.42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.3 | 484 | 51.2%248 W · 236 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Hawks | 22c | 54.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.47 | 144 | 38.9%56 W · 88 L | +32.5wins | +0.23per pick | 16cpaid | +228.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xfcba…d962backed Thunder | 57c | 53.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…5196backed Hawks | 59c | 52.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 103 | 37.9%39 W · 64 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fc…13ccbacked Hawks | 45c | 49.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.37 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc86f…341dbacked Thunder | 56c | 48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Thunder | 35c | 43.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Hawks | 46c | 39.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa64b…1e4bbacked Hawks | 45c | 38.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Hawks | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x715c…78c0backed Thunder | 55c | 36.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…2473backed Thunder | 51c | 36.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…d4f2backed Thunder | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Thunder | 53c | 34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…3de3backed Hawks | 44c | 34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9430…97cebacked Thunder | 56c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e8e…1ef0backed Hawks | 51c | 30.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked Thunder | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 114 | 64.9%74 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e02…c5f2backed Thunder | 56c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.7wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x279b…7d84backed Thunder | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60dc…9a3ebacked Thunder | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +4.3wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x41e8…5394backed Thunder | 53c | 22.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -67%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Hawks | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 183 | 47.5%87 W · 96 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…a51abacked Hawks | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 296 | 52.7%156 W · 140 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3a…9bdbbacked Thunder | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-15.5)this page
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds Over 9.5Yes won
- Hawks vs. ThunderThunder won
- Hawks vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineHawks won
- Hawks vs. Thunder: O/U 232.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Thunder: O/U 233.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Thunder: O/U 235.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Thunder: O/U 236.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Thunder: O/U 237.5Over won
- Spread: Thunder (-12.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Thunder (-16.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Thunder (-17.5)Hawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.