NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-12.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95d4cb67cd1722bc89f99c260859ee727b4230656e18d886a5efc2214e361b1e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hawksof Thunder, Hawks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,596
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,776
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,596 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hawks | 43c | 392$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.5 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Thunder | 46c | 300$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Thunder | 65c | 249.87$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.42 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Hawks | 37c | 185.84$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.08 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Hawks | 50c | 150.24$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.45 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…0ba4backed Thunder | 63c | 110.31$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 165 | 47.3%78 W · 87 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Thunder | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a32…0188backed Thunder | 59c | 73.17$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.17 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9419…a40fbacked Thunder | 65c | 70$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd6…6202backed Hawks | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b8…ef60backed Thunder | 60c | 46.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Hawks | 40c | 46.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.68 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Hawks | 35c | 43.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…f8a3backed Hawks | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…5196backed Hawks | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 103 | 37.9%39 W · 64 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Hawks | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b14…e641backed Thunder | 63c | 16.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e8…5394backed Thunder | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -67%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2c…352cbacked Hawks | 74c | 15.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-12.5)this page
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds Over 9.5Yes won
- Hawks vs. ThunderThunder won
- Hawks vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineHawks won
- Hawks vs. Thunder: O/U 232.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Thunder: O/U 233.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Thunder: O/U 235.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Thunder: O/U 236.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Thunder: O/U 237.5Over won
- Spread: Thunder (-15.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Thunder (-16.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Thunder (-17.5)Hawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.