NBA · resolved market
Hawks vs. Thunder: O/U 237.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf228041eda299c03bf5ffd8e760644e5904c02cadc12c828b8f03560b68fc6ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,912
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,405
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,912 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1117…3532backed Under | 52c | 4,155$2,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,160.57 | 1,024 | 50.8%520 W · 504 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 3,761$1,805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,955.77 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 53c | 1,554$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$823.86 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Under | 54c | 940.62$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.93 | 435 | 43.4%189 W · 246 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Under | 53c | 860.81$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.23 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 55c | 576.98$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.15 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.53 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…3c6abacked Under | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | -18.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 47c | 262.23$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.53 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 43c | 185.4$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.75 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Under | 58c | 164$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.12 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 48c | 153.95$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.64 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over | 43c | 125$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.25 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…c20dbacked Over | 44c | 114.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.47 | 170 | 35.9%61 W · 109 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffb8…3d6ebacked Under | 54c | 114$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 46c | 105.07$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.1 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 477 | 38.2%182 W · 295 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0a…3518backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 55c | 94.68$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.3 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 45c | 75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7802…d5b4backed Under | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4050…6265backed Over | 47c | 59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…47a4backed Under | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8356…36cdbacked Over | 47c | 55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +69%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4e…e3a4backed Over | 42c | 44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf33d…1969backed Over | 42c | 43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 53c | 35.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa64b…1e4bbacked Over | 46c | 33.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb256…3058backed Under | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hawks vs. Thunder: O/U 237.5this page
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds Over 9.5Yes won
- Hawks vs. ThunderThunder won
- Hawks vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineHawks won
- Hawks vs. Thunder: O/U 232.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Thunder: O/U 233.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Thunder: O/U 235.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Thunder: O/U 236.5Over won
- Spread: Thunder (-12.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Thunder (-15.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Thunder (-16.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Thunder (-17.5)Hawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.