NBA · resolved market
Hawks vs. Thunder: O/U 236.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4bc1e320654b3f964f86b55674a2f3c061e02a8770e3971832375d70c672b6eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,769
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,769
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,769 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Under | 51c | 6,000$3,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,059.99 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Under | 49c | 2,366$1,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,159.36 | 1,024 | 50.8%520 W · 504 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 53c | 2,286$1,214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,213.88 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 49c | 2,249$1,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,146.98 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 47c | 1,830$851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$978.72 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 44c | 1,500$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$835 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a9…45ffbacked Over | 49c | 852.04$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.54 | 238 | 50%119 W · 119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 49c | 732.19$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.65 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 47c | 723.61$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.51 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 47c | 718.62$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.87 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Over | 49c | 597.01$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.48 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 54c | 428.72$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.43 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Under | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 155 | 43.2%67 W · 88 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x890a…093cbacked Over | 49c | 284$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.84 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Over | 44c | 204$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.24 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa64b…1e4bbacked Over | 49c | 199.97$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.34 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…38cbbacked Under | 52c | 150$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83fc…13ccbacked Over | 47c | 146.81$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.19 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d62…5dc7backed Under | 52c | 134$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 50c | 130.44$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.37 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 61c | 125$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over | 46c | 125$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed Under | 57c | 118$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.26 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 47c | 101.07$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.77 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58e0…ebecbacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 50c | 90$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…2041backed Under | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 195 | 48.7%95 W · 100 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed Under | 57c | 71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.47 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2378…a8dbbacked Over | 49c | 69$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7256…5c68backed Over | 49c | 65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 48c | 62.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.72 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77ed…53f7backed Over | 43c | 47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f19…e03ebacked Over | 44c | 42.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.72 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ad…5a42backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a9…f72ebacked Over | 43c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62e6…f251backed Over | 43c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc840…0650backed Over | 47c | 25.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b40…93f4backed Over | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hawks vs. Thunder: O/U 236.5this page
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds Over 9.5Yes won
- Hawks vs. ThunderThunder won
- Hawks vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineHawks won
- Hawks vs. Thunder: O/U 232.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Thunder: O/U 233.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Thunder: O/U 235.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Thunder: O/U 237.5Over won
- Spread: Thunder (-12.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Thunder (-15.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Thunder (-16.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Thunder (-17.5)Hawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.