NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-17.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96e3e5fc60dd1967777df83399fffd2a9e85e74e7f4a6578c8f4f996c8045eeb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hawksof Thunder, Hawks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $174,991
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $175,957
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $174,991 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Thunder | 50c | 72,353$35,841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,840.98 | 874 | 51.5%450 W · 424 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…28adbacked Hawks | 53c | 43,521$22,932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,589.87 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Hawks | 51c | 34,169$17,426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,742.66 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Hawks | 50c | 10,590$5,312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,278.52 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Thunder | 48c | 10,158$4,876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,875.81 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Hawks | 50c | 8,737$4,405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,331.73 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Thunder | 46c | 5,851$2,719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,718.7 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed Hawks | 51c | 5,002$2,551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,451.01 | 488 | 45.3%221 W · 267 L | +18.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Hawks | 51c | 4,996$2,548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,447.94 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…a0fbbacked Thunder | 48c | 2,981$1,431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,430.95 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Thunder | 47c | 1,748$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$821.56 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Hawks | 51c | 1,200$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.21 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Hawks | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a0…35b6backed Hawks | 53c | 964.21$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.2 | 153 | 48.4%74 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa60…556cbacked Hawks | 52c | 800$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Hawks | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 220 | 53.6%118 W · 102 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cf…2d96backed Hawks | 53c | 483.09$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.07 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb900…c4c7backed Thunder | 49c | 477.55$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Hawks | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87ea…f625backed Hawks | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 243 | 30.9%75 W · 168 L | -11.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Hawks | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Hawks | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 235 | 53.6%126 W · 109 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hawks | 53c | 158$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.26 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Hawks | 53c | 141.51$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.51 | 824 | 40.4%333 W · 491 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Thunder | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 745 | 47.2%352 W · 393 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cac…f75cbacked Hawks | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69db…283abacked Hawks | 53c | 41.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 150 | 34.7%52 W · 98 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce3e…2f24backed Hawks | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 250 | 56.8%142 W · 108 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe43b…f955backed Hawks | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Hawks | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 184 | 40.8%75 W · 109 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Thunder | 45c | 36.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Thunder | 49c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Hawks | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-17.5)this page
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds Over 9.5Yes won
- Hawks vs. ThunderThunder won
- Hawks vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineHawks won
- Hawks vs. Thunder: O/U 232.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Thunder: O/U 233.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Thunder: O/U 235.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Thunder: O/U 236.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Thunder: O/U 237.5Over won
- Spread: Thunder (-12.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Thunder (-15.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Thunder (-16.5)Hawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.