TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Lions vs. Vikings

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Vikingsof Lions, Vikings
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,201,638
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,352,417

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,201,638 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,188 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4259…936fbacked Lions73c630,880$460,626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460,625.946248.4%30 W · 32 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c16…09cbbacked Vikings23c357,013$82,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274,900.364955.1%27 W · 22 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+21.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0bc…af98backed Lions76c332,708$252,858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252,858.07944.4%4 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.22per pick67cpaid-33%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Vikings34c272,080$92,953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179,126.9686547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Vikings36c167,598$60,061 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107,536.6516955%93 W · 76 L+15.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5350…2fdabacked Vikings23c125,000$28,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96,249.874250%21 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Vikings24c115,000$27,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87,40010333%34 W · 69 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7c…357dbacked Lions63c107,479$67,658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67,658.011662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Vikings24c103,968$24,952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79,015.416764.2%43 W · 24 L+9.7wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+35.3%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Vikings37c100,021$36,795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63,225.5573651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Lions63c82,678$52,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52,399.6230043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Lions75c70,000$52,554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52,553.6927454.7%150 W · 124 L+13.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1894…9720backed Vikings25c62,984$15,746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47,238.04728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31c5…ede4backed Lions75c62,281$46,471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46,471.4216545.5%75 W · 90 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed Lions6c60,665$3,833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,833.2310026%26 W · 74 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Vikings23c57,055$13,123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43,932.6711544.3%51 W · 64 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-7.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Lions61c57,031$34,993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,993.143056.7%17 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60d0…2e36backed Vikings24c47,003$11,281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,722.262437.5%9 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Lions6c46,664$2,971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,970.7620026%52 W · 148 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Lions22c45,575$10,138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,138.0212748%61 W · 66 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff7a…4c4cbacked Vikings75c43,523$32,776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,746.42633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-41.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c74…bd4ebacked Vikings25c40,000$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,000.272657.7%15 W · 11 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+35.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Lions75c40,000$30,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,00024652%128 W · 118 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5da4…e203backed Vikings36c40,000$14,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,599.973548.6%17 W · 18 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+21.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Lions75c38,765$29,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,073.6520755.1%114 W · 93 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2232…f6fabacked Lions73c33,669$24,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,503.982470.8%17 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick68cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa21…1438backed Vikings75c33,654$25,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,502.476459.4%38 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x88a2…d974backed Vikings24c33,519$8,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,388.6713142%55 W · 76 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc3e…37efbacked Lions29c29,656$8,547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,546.917736.4%28 W · 49 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5eb7…05f6backed Lions72c28,039$20,181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,180.6510144.6%45 W · 56 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd89e…35fabacked Vikings49c26,615$13,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,550.012045%9 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Lions43c26,457$11,374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,373.8450242.4%213 W · 289 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Vikings41c24,293$9,927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,366.275852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Lions23c21,962$4,974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,974.3831543.2%136 W · 179 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d3b…c46bbacked Lions75c20,540$15,405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,404.7211145.9%51 W · 60 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Lions73c20,000$14,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,599.994358.1%25 W · 18 L+4.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+33.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Vikings24c20,000$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,199.9814342%60 W · 83 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5ba6…0f07backed Lions63c20,000$12,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,599.935446.3%25 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27cb…169ebacked Vikings23c17,882$4,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,769.115431.5%17 W · 37 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Vikings25c17,579$4,395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,184.5418650%93 W · 93 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x264c…8250backed Lions61c16,673$10,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,092.15850%4 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-29.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87b6…4ababacked Lions62c16,129$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0004452.3%23 W · 21 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4487…1ec1backed Lions77c15,584$12,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,0002218.2%4 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-45.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbd0…103abacked Lions63c15,106$9,543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,542.72333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe965…6559backed Lions77c14,988$11,597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,597.426149.2%30 W · 31 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x96ca…5a71backed Lions77c14,286$11,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,0005044%22 W · 28 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e0b…9e5cbacked Vikings24c14,195$3,399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,796.43922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick15cpaid-39.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4534…f867backed Vikings32c13,475$4,292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,182.992941.4%12 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4992…6f5cbacked Lions80c13,434$10,747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,747.251136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.22per pick59cpaid-45%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Vikings43c11,516$5,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,515.1927644.2%122 W · 154 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Vikings37c11,034$4,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,974.1227348.7%133 W · 140 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Lions75c10,753$8,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,088.041,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd776…ffebbacked Lions76c10,300$7,828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,8283560%21 W · 14 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7509…4b9dbacked Vikings19c10,295$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,295.463630.6%11 W · 25 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-24.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Vikings27c10,000$2,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,3008164.2%52 W · 29 L+12.1wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+137.5%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Vikings24c10,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,599.975236.5%19 W · 33 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5677…2ce9backed Lions75c9,998$7,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,498.251866.7%12 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick63cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Lions67c9,676$6,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,484.9818435.9%66 W · 118 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe76f…1eacbacked Vikings41c9,244$3,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,493.672070%14 W · 6 L+4.0wins+0.20per pick50cpaid+60.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Lions75c9,000$6,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,77026650.8%135 W · 131 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Vikings52c8,794$4,591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,202.772450%12 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Lions43c8,619$3,727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,727.4523244.4%103 W · 129 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d58…9a15backed Vikings29c8,555$2,483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,072.122740.7%11 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdddc…ced2backed Vikings41c8,464$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,963.543138.7%12 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6919…5effbacked Lions76c8,321$6,345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,344.994852.1%25 W · 23 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa96b…5875backed Lions65c8,125$5,281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,281.24250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Lions47c8,112$3,821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,821.211643.1%50 W · 66 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Lions1c8,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8033328.5%95 W · 238 L+16.7wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+19.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Lions73c7,833$5,721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,720.821254.2%115 W · 97 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27f2…702cbacked Lions72c7,595$5,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,500.229359.1%55 W · 38 L-6.8wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-12.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8b8c…9390backed Lions63c7,500$4,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,729.847558.7%44 W · 31 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+16.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x240c…bd0dbacked Lions76c7,400$5,624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,624757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+20.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc374…46f4backed Vikings24c7,318$1,756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,561.41742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3450…6793backed Lions76c7,309$5,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,5557255.6%40 W · 32 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x490e…73adbacked Lions36c7,086$2,557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,557.051241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Lions76c6,928$5,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,254.361,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Vikings25c6,669$1,651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,018.4814641.8%61 W · 85 L-10.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-12.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8935…837dbacked Lions76c6,579$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0007147.9%34 W · 37 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9dd…3cc5backed Lions43c6,568$2,848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,847.561931.6%6 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+28.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef45…1905backed Lions76c6,500$4,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,939.99922.2%2 W · 7 L-3.0wins-0.34per pick56cpaid-64.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x573c…1b61backed Vikings25c6,322$1,601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,720.72425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-1.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Vikings24c6,300$1,516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,78453253%282 W · 250 L+19.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb68…a240backed Vikings32c6,250$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,2501637.5%6 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+65.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x187b…26bfbacked Lions57c6,000$3,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,4203447.1%16 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+112.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9445…3b31backed Lions76c5,797$4,426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,425.78540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-36.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d7d…ec26backed Lions62c5,688$3,527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,526.621936.8%7 W · 12 L-3.8wins-0.20per pick57cpaid-41.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7690…74e1backed Lions76c5,658$4,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,3002343.5%10 W · 13 L-5.3wins-0.23per pick66cpaid-38.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xc29e…a2cabacked Lions54c5,602$2,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,998.52161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+16.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Vikings32c5,246$1,679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,567.2783147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Vikings24c5,100$1,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,8764226.2%11 W · 31 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c0c…7c83backed Lions64c5,000$3,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,2154266.7%28 W · 14 L+6.8wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+30.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe948…ff23backed Lions73c5,000$3,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,6505352.8%28 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Vikings23c4,929$1,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,795.2614951%76 W · 73 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Vikings22c4,775$1,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,723.079359.1%55 W · 38 L+10.2wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+22.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Vikings59c4,750$2,815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,934.991163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.21per pick43cpaid+29.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9981…dec4backed Vikings75c4,700$3,531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1695472.2%39 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Vikings34c4,600$1,576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,02411139.6%44 W · 67 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8da…f944backed Vikings24c4,554$1,103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,451.046750.7%34 W · 33 L+6.6wins+0.10per pick41cpaid+25.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4f4b…bb93backed Lions51c4,500$2,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,295771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick65cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ed…2d39backed Lions76c4,250$3,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,229.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.