NFL · resolved market
1H Spread: Lions (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96dfd38354261355fa6674ebdc81c0bb6575e71d6a1003e3be2adeee4c2b1c3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Vikingsof Lions, Vikings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,842
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,947
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,842 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Vikings | 45c | 769.47$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.21 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Vikings | 47c | 546.94$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.38 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…9f15backed Lions | 55c | 500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.89 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | -8.2wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x93a2…5181backed Lions | 48c | 331.72$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.23 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -6.8wins | -0.32per pick | 47cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Lions | 55c | 290$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.5 | 175 | 47.4%83 W · 92 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7c…8eabbacked Lions | 55c | 254.55$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 136 | 52.2%71 W · 65 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Vikings | 49c | 222.62$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.24 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2af…e3bcbacked Lions | 55c | 180$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf5…6638backed Lions | 55c | 178.56$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.21 | 116 | 37.9%44 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Vikings | 45c | 153.91$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.65 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf994…49d5backed Vikings | 48c | 150$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60f…74dabacked Vikings | 46c | 150$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Vikings | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73eb…26fcbacked Vikings | 49c | 99.81$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84f0…327cbacked Vikings | 47c | 95$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.35 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d76…b50ebacked Lions | 54c | 55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57db…e312backed Lions | 54c | 55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6132…7665backed Vikings | 48c | 53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Lions | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…1594backed Vikings | 48c | 48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed Vikings | 45c | 41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1050…aa88backed Lions | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1de9…34b8backed Lions | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91a2…cc98backed Lions | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Vikings | 46c | 32.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3475…eea8backed Lions | 55c | 31.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…d0c8backed Vikings | 49c | 30.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e4…24c2backed Lions | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed Lions | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e26…c672backed Lions | 53c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f06…2614backed Lions | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6061…1ff7backed Lions | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.41per pick | 55cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa029…c912backed Lions | 53c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1H Spread: Lions (-3.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Lions (-4.5)Vikings won
- Lions Team Total: O/U 15.5Under won
- Lions vs. VikingsVikings won
- Lions vs. Vikings: 1H O/U 21.5Under won
- Lions vs. Vikings: 1H O/U 22.5Under won
- Lions vs. Vikings: 1H O/U 23.5Under won
- Lions vs. Vikings: O/U 43.5Under won
- Lions vs. Vikings: O/U 44.5Under won
- Lions vs. Vikings: O/U 46.5Under won
- Lions vs. Vikings: O/U 47.5Under won
- Spread: Lions (-2.5)Vikings won
- Spread: Lions (-5.5)Vikings won
- Spread: Lions (-6.5)Vikings won
- Spread: Lions (-7.5)Vikings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.