NFL · resolved market
Spread: Lions (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31d56938877323c365da0115eab15bb3589ccfa6996059a9aa354215fe448079
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Vikingsof Lions, Vikings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,222
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,225
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,222 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Lions | 58c | 6,091$3,541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,540.89 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Vikings | 40c | 4,365$1,752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,613.86 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Vikings | 37c | 3,111$1,152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,958.29 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Vikings | 37c | 878.16$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.51 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc649…91c4backed Lions | 75c | 770.2$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Lions | 60c | 657.03$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.98 | 356 | 48%171 W · 185 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked Vikings | 26c | 645.73$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.84 | 148 | 37.2%55 W · 93 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Lions | 75c | 478.95$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0be…e6c2backed Lions | 46c | 445.5$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Lions | 74c | 399$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.48 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Vikings | 75c | 310$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.5 | 315 | 43.2%136 W · 179 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Lions | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Lions | 68c | 300$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Vikings | 53c | 225$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.9 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Vikings | 46c | 222.79$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.09 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Lions | 59c | 207.74$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.52 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8df…6df7backed Lions | 57c | 186.72$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.32 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaddb…51adbacked Vikings | 32c | 167.34$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.34 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf987…6ea7backed Vikings | 29c | 156.29$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.67 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…b1dcbacked Lions | 64c | 140.63$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd53…a861backed Vikings | 27c | 109$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.57 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Vikings | 25c | 98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +4.0wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9827…6c61backed Vikings | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.91 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Lions | 25c | 90$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 182 | 45.6%83 W · 99 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Lions | 60c | 83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 314 | 50%157 W · 157 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Lions | 73c | 79.74$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.36 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8104…3128backed Lions | 59c | 76.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.27 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked Vikings | 29c | 71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.41 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Lions | 56c | 70.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x363a…b79ebacked Vikings | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f8…ac7bbacked Lions | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fed…0d78backed Vikings | 27c | 65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.45 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Vikings | 26c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…3de3backed Vikings | 27c | 56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.88 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Lions | 49c | 56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Vikings | 27c | 54.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.78 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Lions | 47c | 53.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -5.2wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x54f6…1fd0backed Lions | 55c | 45.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x102f…9b6ebacked Vikings | 27c | 45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Vikings | 25c | 44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Vikings | 27c | 42.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 163 | 49.7%81 W · 82 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Vikings | 27c | 41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.93 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf9…1abfbacked Vikings | 27c | 39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.47 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fef…a3d3backed Lions | 73c | 34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Lions | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaac…1045backed Lions | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…2f86backed Lions | 73c | 29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Lions | 71c | 28.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 199 | 54.8%109 W · 90 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…ab38backed Lions | 70c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480a…e3c9backed Lions | 73c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.2wins | -0.35per pick | 57cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd647…9c8fbacked Lions | 71c | 26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -3.1wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked Lions | 60c | 25.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…9f8dbacked Lions | 75c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f6…9cdabacked Lions | 73c | 23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x749b…48d8backed Lions | 73c | 23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…dcaabacked Lions | 71c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00c0…4523backed Lions | 73c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb780…e7a2backed Lions | 73c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4f…73a6backed Lions | 73c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5d…be79backed Lions | 73c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86a…9ed1backed Lions | 75c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b1…cac1backed Lions | 73c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.33per pick | 55cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x83d7…f2d1backed Lions | 75c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43a…f530backed Lions | 73c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38dc…4c5fbacked Lions | 75c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…8f17backed Lions | 75c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.6wins | -0.45per pick | 58cpaid | -75%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a9…f72ebacked Lions | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2999…50bcbacked Lions | 73c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52cc…9998backed Lions | 73c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lions (-2.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Lions (-3.5)Vikings won
- 1H Spread: Lions (-4.5)Vikings won
- Lions Team Total: O/U 15.5Under won
- Lions vs. VikingsVikings won
- Lions vs. Vikings: 1H O/U 21.5Under won
- Lions vs. Vikings: 1H O/U 22.5Under won
- Lions vs. Vikings: 1H O/U 23.5Under won
- Lions vs. Vikings: O/U 43.5Under won
- Lions vs. Vikings: O/U 44.5Under won
- Lions vs. Vikings: O/U 46.5Under won
- Lions vs. Vikings: O/U 47.5Under won
- Spread: Lions (-5.5)Vikings won
- Spread: Lions (-6.5)Vikings won
- Spread: Lions (-7.5)Vikings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.