NFL · resolved market
Lions vs. Vikings: O/U 46.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d6996023a0278c4502ab977f860b8c0e80863074036e7266a65bda58e931e9f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,539
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,173
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,539 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7bbb…4a56backed Over | 47c | 841.71$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.75 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 45c | 817$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.09 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11e2…26ccbacked Under | 55c | 626.88$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.1 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Under | 56c | 600$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Under | 59c | 560$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.4 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24da…9561backed Under | 53c | 484.43$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.68 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd65…fcfabacked Over | 44c | 455.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 43c | 336.89$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.86 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 57c | 268.27$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.36 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 41c | 242.44$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.28 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Over | 45c | 240$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Under | 56c | 237.55$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.52 | 117 | 58.1%68 W · 49 L | +9.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Over | 44c | 235.09$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.09 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 55c | 222.22$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 57c | 202.49$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.51 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 57c | 166.53$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.61 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 44c | 163.9$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.9 | 356 | 48%171 W · 185 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Under | 59c | 130$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.3 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…b4a3backed Under | 61c | 120$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e56…35cbbacked Over | 44c | 108.68$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.82 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68e0…a3a6backed Under | 59c | 106$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.46 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…c71fbacked Under | 61c | 104$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 112 | 60.7%68 W · 44 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…71e4backed Under | 57c | 96$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.28 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…3a8abacked Under | 62c | 92$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.96 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Under | 59c | 92$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84f0…327cbacked Under | 61c | 91$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…94febacked Over | 44c | 90.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…086ebacked Under | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Under | 59c | 87$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.67 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +4.0wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed Under | 59c | 83$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.03 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked Under | 61c | 69$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fed…0d78backed Under | 62c | 66$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Under | 61c | 65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc856…0aa5backed Over | 41c | 61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…5e22backed Under | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +22%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e48…c958backed Over | 40c | 57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf263…e9c1backed Over | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 51c | 55.65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.27 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed Under | 62c | 54$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf33d…1969backed Over | 42c | 53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3e…390fbacked Over | 42c | 46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2614…1000backed Over | 39c | 46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bd…0da6backed Over | 41c | 42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x971c…f72cbacked Under | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f96…92e0backed Over | 41c | 38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 51cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe13a…6bb5backed Over | 40c | 37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2f…ef1abacked Over | 43c | 35.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 105 | 55.2%58 W · 47 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…4c2cbacked Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56d2…e5f5backed Over | 39c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd568…655ebacked Over | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a6…bbd5backed Over | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96d2…dc9bbacked Over | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51e5…9fcabacked Over | 39c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f57…6d41backed Over | 38c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12af…0730backed Over | 41c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6393…dde9backed Over | 41c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38dc…4c5fbacked Over | 41c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x60ee…f2d4backed Over | 39c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -59%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a9…f72ebacked Over | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lions vs. Vikings: O/U 46.5this page
- 1H Spread: Lions (-3.5)Vikings won
- 1H Spread: Lions (-4.5)Vikings won
- Lions Team Total: O/U 15.5Under won
- Lions vs. VikingsVikings won
- Lions vs. Vikings: 1H O/U 21.5Under won
- Lions vs. Vikings: 1H O/U 22.5Under won
- Lions vs. Vikings: 1H O/U 23.5Under won
- Lions vs. Vikings: O/U 43.5Under won
- Lions vs. Vikings: O/U 44.5Under won
- Lions vs. Vikings: O/U 47.5Under won
- Spread: Lions (-2.5)Vikings won
- Spread: Lions (-5.5)Vikings won
- Spread: Lions (-6.5)Vikings won
- Spread: Lions (-7.5)Vikings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.