NFL · resolved market
Lions vs. Vikings: O/U 47.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb15de81c02f843010a97767a1d414265845bffe9e6916b12488b6e925581a443
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,168
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,133
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,168 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 43c | 540$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.6 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Under | 59c | 500$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Over | 41c | 490.12$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.95 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -9.1wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f85…7e17backed Over | 43c | 348.84$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 57c | 348.84$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Under | 57c | 300$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 169 | 57.4%97 W · 72 L | +15.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Under | 56c | 240$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.6 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +9.7wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Over | 32c | 185$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.95 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41a0…4dbbbacked Under | 68c | 175$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.75 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -61%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 40c | 101.67$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Under | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a4…3c66backed Under | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Under | 62c | 94.74$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 143 | 66.4%95 W · 48 L | +13.0wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 34c | 88.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…9c50backed Over | 38c | 68.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lions vs. Vikings: O/U 47.5this page
- 1H Spread: Lions (-3.5)Vikings won
- 1H Spread: Lions (-4.5)Vikings won
- Lions Team Total: O/U 15.5Under won
- Lions vs. VikingsVikings won
- Lions vs. Vikings: 1H O/U 21.5Under won
- Lions vs. Vikings: 1H O/U 22.5Under won
- Lions vs. Vikings: 1H O/U 23.5Under won
- Lions vs. Vikings: O/U 43.5Under won
- Lions vs. Vikings: O/U 44.5Under won
- Lions vs. Vikings: O/U 46.5Under won
- Spread: Lions (-2.5)Vikings won
- Spread: Lions (-5.5)Vikings won
- Spread: Lions (-6.5)Vikings won
- Spread: Lions (-7.5)Vikings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.