NBA · resolved market

Spread: Nuggets (-2.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x611aff4efdc8b28ca546fae58d8b7282d3555377e9a6ffa5ed27ab5a6e07c9be

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Heatof Nuggets, Heat
Resolved: Dec 30, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $82,435
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $82,569

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,435 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9165…5b98backed Heat	55c	34,052$18,853 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15,198.63	252	48.4%122 W · 130 L	-5.9wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Nuggets	46c	13,464$6,161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,160.83	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Heat	51c	13,402$6,835 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,566.95	1,374	50.1%689 W · 685 L	+34.9wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbde3…4a49backed Nuggets	49c	13,332$6,533 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,532.68	272	51.1%139 W · 133 L	+10.4wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Nuggets	44c	10,180$4,479 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,479.2	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Nuggets	46c	8,000$3,680 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,680	2,153	51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L	+76.7wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Nuggets	46c	7,267$3,321 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,321.45	1,139	48.3%550 W · 589 L	+3.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Heat	53c	6,101$3,231 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,870.1	1,820	52.1%948 W · 872 L	+48.5wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Heat	52c	4,273$2,222 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,051.08	767	46.4%356 W · 411 L	-16.7wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Nuggets	48c	4,200$2,016 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,016	156	53.8%84 W · 72 L	+5.9wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x29e4…4982backed Heat	54c	3,926$2,120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,805.93	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Heat	50c	3,812$1,915 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,896.92	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked Nuggets	44c	2,000$880 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$880	446	54.3%242 W · 204 L	+21.5wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b23…e20fbacked Nuggets	51c	1,800$918 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$918	499	38.9%194 W · 305 L	-23.4wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Nuggets	44c	1,591$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700.04	1,451	49.7%721 W · 730 L	+18.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe071…2d1abacked Heat	53c	1,480$790 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$690.39	489	57.5%281 W · 208 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x89bd…3f72backed Heat	49c	1,290$632 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$657.9	112	43.8%49 W · 63 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Nuggets	33c	1,226$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$399.64	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Nuggets	49c	1,212$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	672	52.7%354 W · 318 L	+15.8wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Nuggets	47c	1,000$470 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$470	409	47.7%195 W · 214 L	-13.0wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb03…d693backed Heat	52c	961.54$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$461.54	39	43.6%17 W · 22 L	-3.2wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x25f4…20e0backed Nuggets	50c	900$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450	152	44.1%67 W · 85 L	-14.4wins	-0.09per pick	54cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x09bf…e2c5backed Nuggets	50c	600$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-1.2wins	-0.09per pick	51cpaid	-15%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Heat	68c	518$352 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$165.76	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Nuggets	51c	500$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255	736	49.9%367 W · 369 L	-5.8wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Nuggets	49c	408.16$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	1,259	48.7%613 W · 646 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Nuggets	46c	358$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.68	1,667	52.7%878 W · 789 L	+45.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8f2…4adebacked Nuggets	47c	312.69$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.96	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-2.1wins	-0.35per pick	52cpaid	-65.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Nuggets	44c	300$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6909…36b5backed Heat	52c	288.46$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$138.46	53	50.9%27 W · 26 L	-3.5wins	-0.07per pick	58cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3e47…a7abbacked Nuggets	49c	203.92$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	498	52.4%261 W · 237 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked Nuggets	51c	200$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	1,661	50.3%836 W · 825 L	-14.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe05…b5a5backed Nuggets	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	332	46.1%153 W · 179 L	-12.1wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xefe8…fe1abacked Nuggets	32c	200$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.43	93	41.9%39 W · 54 L	-4.8wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a3c…93d7backed Nuggets	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	403	46.2%186 W · 217 L	+9.0wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e07…c0d4backed Nuggets	47c	181.19$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.16	134	56.7%76 W · 58 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e46…0742backed Heat	51c	137.25$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.25	239	48.5%116 W · 123 L	-4.2wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc468…530fbacked Heat	51c	129.01$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.21	94	43.6%41 W · 53 L	-12.3wins	-0.13per pick	57cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Nuggets	45c	124.99$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.24	807	44.1%356 W · 451 L	+6.2wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Nuggets	47c	122.84$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.73	1,294	48.1%623 W · 671 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcc63…f1c7backed Nuggets	48c	100$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	506	53.2%269 W · 237 L	+8.7wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e57…21cbbacked Heat	52c	100$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48	56	55.4%31 W · 25 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Heat	49c	100$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51	1,475	51.3%756 W · 719 L	+35.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e83…30dabacked Nuggets	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8cbb…acb2backed Nuggets	48c	95.96$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.06	890	50.4%449 W · 441 L	+4.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xea0e…a5dabacked Nuggets	45c	81.64$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	28	57.1%16 W · 12 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Heat	51c	78.43$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.43	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fbd…3d15backed Nuggets	45c	77.94$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.07	762	47.1%359 W · 403 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb0d6…14d9backed Heat	52c	76.92$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.92	139	46.8%65 W · 74 L	+11.6wins	+0.08per pick	38cpaid	+20.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xced1…3a74backed Nuggets	52c	76$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.52	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42bf…30f7backed Nuggets	47c	75.11$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.3	68	42.6%29 W · 39 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7802…d5b4backed Nuggets	49c	59.99$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.4	107	58.9%63 W · 44 L	+7.6wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Heat	51c	58.82$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.82	1,389	54.9%762 W · 627 L	+16.7wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0c7…5861backed Heat	52c	57.69$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.69	516	51.2%264 W · 252 L	-6.4wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81ea…21e1backed Nuggets	50c	52$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	119	30.3%36 W · 83 L	-8.5wins	-0.07per pick	37cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x04b3…ad8dbacked Nuggets	49c	51.02$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	118	48.3%57 W · 61 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Nuggets	49c	50.68$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	603	46.4%280 W · 323 L	-12.0wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e17…e4d4backed Nuggets	49c	46.8$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.93	160	61.3%98 W · 62 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	62cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Heat	51c	43.99$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.56	1,444	58.1%839 W · 605 L	+13.5wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc57a…fe9fbacked Nuggets	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	132	50%66 W · 66 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x370b…5009backed Nuggets	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	54	51.9%28 W · 26 L	-4.9wins	-0.09per pick	61cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3552…f07bbacked Nuggets	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	168	49.4%83 W · 85 L	+4.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc36…1b11backed Nuggets	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	99	43.4%43 W · 56 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x90aa…5f6cbacked Nuggets	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	218	49.5%108 W · 110 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a13…271dbacked Nuggets	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	44	50%22 W · 22 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4fc…8cc0backed Heat	49c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.4	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.0wins	+0.51per pick	49cpaid	+104.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f2a…165ebacked Heat	49c	36$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.36	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.13per pick	47cpaid	-32%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x715c…78c0backed Nuggets	49c	30.61$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6db2…9289backed Heat	51c	28.98$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.2	26	57.7%15 W · 11 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Nuggets	47c	28$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.16	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Nuggets	44c	25$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	2,657	49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L	+42.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1aa…071abacked Nuggets	50c	22$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	90	47.8%43 W · 47 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Heat	52c	21.25$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.2	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x57eb…3a67backed Nuggets	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	63	46%29 W · 34 L	+2.8wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb308…19debacked Nuggets	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	-4.5wins	-0.24per pick	50cpaid	-49.9%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Nuggets (-2.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event