NBA · resolved market

Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf61d6363c116cd5f905bf0ad6cb669c39fdefd5e3e7d3c01b8c62c472b099393

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Heatof Nuggets, Heat
Resolved: Dec 30, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $45,489
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $45,943

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,489 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x16b2…a881backed Heat	55c	25,548$14,063 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11,484.85	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Nuggets	44c	10,732$4,741 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,740.75	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Nuggets	45c	9,252$4,185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,185.45	446	48%214 W · 232 L	-12.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbde3…4a49backed Nuggets	45c	7,888$3,550 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,549.6	272	51.1%139 W · 133 L	+10.4wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Heat	57c	5,050$2,878 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,171.46	1,332	51.2%682 W · 650 L	+7.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Heat	54c	2,466$1,335 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,131.44	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Heat	53c	2,322$1,230 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,091.16	762	49.5%377 W · 385 L	-8.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Heat	54c	1,670$902 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$768.2	1,908	54.5%1,040 W · 868 L	+53.7wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f18…c9fdbacked Nuggets	44c	1,282$564 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$564	182	41.2%75 W · 107 L	-17.6wins	-0.10per pick	51cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	41-0.09 edge/pick
0x3de6…405cbacked Nuggets	45c	1,224$551 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$551	434	53.2%231 W · 203 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2c2…4de7backed Nuggets	45c	1,000$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450	491	42.6%209 W · 282 L	+12.1wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	+9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Heat	55c	685.74$377 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$308.58	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Nuggets	47c	302.73$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.28	1,910	54.3%1,038 W · 872 L	+25.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Nuggets	23c	289.98$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.99	553	16.5%91 W · 462 L	-10.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6365…df4ebacked Nuggets	46c	271.74$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125	36	50%18 W · 18 L	+5.2wins	+0.14per pick	36cpaid	+66.8%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x12c3…a470backed Nuggets	45c	222.22$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	66	31.8%21 W · 45 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7aed…38cbbacked Heat	55c	150$83 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.5	106	52.8%56 W · 50 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb2ca…d984backed Heat	58c	137.93$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.93	364	50.8%185 W · 179 L	-1.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Nuggets	44c	123.98$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.44	3,668	41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L	-70.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Nuggets	43c	114.5$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.24	1,667	52.7%878 W · 789 L	+45.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70df…bca8backed Nuggets	46c	108.7$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	327	50.2%164 W · 163 L	-10.2wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6b9…a373backed Nuggets	47c	100$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-2.3wins	-0.45per pick	45cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Nuggets	44c	100$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6f0…5701backed Nuggets	19c	99$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.06	311	44.4%138 W · 173 L	+6.2wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0cb…85babacked Nuggets	43c	93.02$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	522	42.7%223 W · 299 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x42bf…30f7backed Nuggets	45c	88.89$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	68	42.6%29 W · 39 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb052…7adabacked Nuggets	47c	85.11$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	290	46.9%136 W · 154 L	-9.0wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Nuggets	44c	82.76$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.41	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Heat	56c	71.43$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.43	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Heat	57c	67$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.68	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Heat	76c	59.95$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.09	1,786	53.2%950 W · 836 L	+52.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Heat	75c	59.95$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.69	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c17…0458backed Nuggets	43c	53.28$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	171	53.2%91 W · 80 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Heat	56c	40$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.6	637	45.8%292 W · 345 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5ff…af12backed Heat	56c	35.71$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.71	136	51.5%70 W · 66 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Heat	65c	32.22$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.35	888	45.7%406 W · 482 L	-12.2wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Heat	57c	31.5$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.55	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Heat	78c	30$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.6	2,630	36.7%966 W · 1,664 L	-119.1wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event