TailMyPicks
Menu
Market

NBA · resolved market

Nuggets vs. Heat

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Heatof Nuggets, Heat
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,443,633
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,420,192

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,443,633 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 963 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x33f6…e0debacked Nuggets53c800,000$424,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424,0003033.3%10 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-20.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d3b…c46bbacked Heat46c709,683$326,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383,228.727745.5%35 W · 42 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9165…5b98backed Heat48c567,339$270,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297,326.625248.4%122 W · 130 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5350…2fdabacked Nuggets54c344,327$184,994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184,993.5612147.9%58 W · 63 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaefe…1e4abacked Nuggets54c331,496$179,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179,0081040%4 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-25.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc2e7…be51backed Heat47c280,851$132,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148,851.0610049%49 W · 51 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Heat44c270,203$119,432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150,770.3387144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b6c…6305backed Nuggets56c216,826$120,572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120,572.477941.8%33 W · 46 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+20.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf11…8399backed Nuggets48c100,290$48,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,214.4937539.5%148 W · 227 L-1.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Heat44c62,995$27,718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,277.372,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x959a…7b64backed Nuggets56c58,868$32,748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,7483357.6%19 W · 14 L+5.3wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+42%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Nuggets56c57,405$32,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,083.542,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Nuggets56c55,741$31,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,247.652,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Heat54c54,928$29,901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,027.251,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Heat45c54,918$24,914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,003.91,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x060e…2384backed Heat45c50,000$22,689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,311.158037.5%30 W · 50 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-7.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Nuggets45c46,776$21,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,060.244,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Nuggets47c44,954$21,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,097.4919033.7%64 W · 126 L+8.3wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+32.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Heat44c43,172$18,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,176.4624650%123 W · 123 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Heat65c43,040$27,984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,055.715,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Heat55c40,458$22,343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,114.981,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Heat44c34,091$15,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,090.891,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Nuggets49c33,714$16,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,437.161,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde6d…0926backed Nuggets34c31,267$10,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,540.12352.2%12 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2725…a09cbacked Nuggets1c31,011$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.819364.5%60 W · 33 L+10.8wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+11.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Nuggets41c29,614$12,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,011.371,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Nuggets42c28,329$11,891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,891.168,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Nuggets22c25,079$5,559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,558.681,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc675…2ff3backed Nuggets55c23,060$12,683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,682.983240.6%13 W · 19 L-4.8wins-0.15per pick56cpaid-23.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x69b7…5c21backed Nuggets55c18,800$10,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,422.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0282…75b0backed Heat45c18,800$8,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,3401100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6a3…2f0dbacked Nuggets53c17,377$9,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,21019560%117 W · 78 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Heat77c16,740$12,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,920.253,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked Heat62c15,594$9,616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,977.2544654.3%242 W · 204 L+21.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc62a…c2c7backed Nuggets53c15,000$7,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,9503063.3%19 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6122…b8d5backed Nuggets55c14,593$8,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,026333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Heat60c12,774$7,664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,109.4952460.1%315 W · 209 L+35.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+32.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf00b…517cbacked Nuggets27c12,680$3,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,449.852638.5%10 W · 16 L+2.9wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+27.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Heat70c12,255$8,632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,623.11,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Nuggets53c11,551$6,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,081.281,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Nuggets2c11,187$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.7364517.1%110 W · 535 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Nuggets54c11,112$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,000.476746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeab7…ad23backed Nuggets16c10,896$1,779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,778.74850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x39fd…5a3fbacked Nuggets46c10,610$4,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,829.619958.3%116 W · 83 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7702…9791backed Nuggets31c9,397$2,892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,89224151.9%125 W · 116 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8323…ba89backed Nuggets56c9,348$5,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,23520%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Nuggets30c9,200$2,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,76059646.1%275 W · 321 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x439b…2c9abacked Nuggets21c9,093$1,949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,949.1412843.8%56 W · 72 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-10.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x88a2…d974backed Heat45c8,889$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,888.895947.5%28 W · 31 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x019d…2b01backed Nuggets37c8,684$3,188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,187.6229037.9%110 W · 180 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Nuggets44c8,550$3,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,8001,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Heat44c7,905$3,478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,426.892753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc63…f1c7backed Heat46c7,880$3,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,255.2150653.2%269 W · 237 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa849…c825backed Nuggets46c7,299$3,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,351.9516641%68 W · 98 L-12.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-17.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Nuggets55c7,000$3,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,83078445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55a1…db28backed Nuggets54c7,000$3,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,7805541.8%23 W · 32 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+1.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Heat46c7,000$3,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,749.981,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Heat52c6,635$3,421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,213.4337944.3%168 W · 211 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Heat46c6,558$3,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,542.982,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5555…2af1backed Heat56c6,389$3,574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,815.2421446.7%100 W · 114 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Nuggets52c6,111$3,189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,188.8476850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73d4…dbd6backed Nuggets56c6,079$3,404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,404.32763%17 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Nuggets34c6,029$2,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,047.533,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x68df…4815backed Nuggets46c6,025$2,772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,771.52240.9%9 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-21.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0ed4…4547backed Nuggets53c6,000$3,188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,187.5219351.8%100 W · 93 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-1.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4534…f867backed Nuggets45c6,000$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,70013625.7%35 W · 101 L+0.5wins0.00per pick25cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Nuggets54c5,998$3,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,230.554,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8366…21ebbacked Heat48c5,208$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,708.335352.8%28 W · 25 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Nuggets55c5,000$2,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,749.9435235.8%126 W · 226 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Nuggets13c4,975$647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$647.1881529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Nuggets36c4,934$1,777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,776.922,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Heat50c4,791$2,409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,381.9634456.7%195 W · 149 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x708d…8a09backed Nuggets10c4,669$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.121923.7%52 W · 167 L+0.5wins0.00per pick24cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc90b…f45dbacked Nuggets55c4,618$2,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,540650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cbb…acb2backed Heat48c4,605$2,202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,402.4589050.4%449 W · 441 L+4.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Nuggets1c4,573$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.418820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Heat52c4,557$2,373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,184.6273649.9%367 W · 369 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cb4…48e3backed Nuggets44c4,533$1,978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,97815547.1%73 W · 82 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x360d…5e0fbacked Nuggets55c4,360$2,398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3982454.2%13 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Heat47c4,358$2,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,31019351.3%99 W · 94 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e10…6a89backed Nuggets22c4,220$932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$931.766352.4%33 W · 30 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Heat46c4,216$1,939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,276.4647848.1%230 W · 248 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f16…0246backed Nuggets54c4,056$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,20038649.5%191 W · 195 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f5e…e7dbbacked Nuggets49c4,009$1,970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,969.728649.7%142 W · 144 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf93f…f94bbacked Heat47c4,000$1,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,12016633.7%56 W · 110 L-11.6wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-26.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7e33…1482backed Heat55c4,000$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8001225%3 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-54.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Nuggets55c4,000$2,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,204.3244459.7%265 W · 179 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd764…4b34backed Nuggets31c3,964$1,229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,228.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x219d…db61backed Nuggets32c3,808$1,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,220.843043.3%13 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Heat46c3,416$1,558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,858.422,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0328…28fabacked Nuggets15c3,398$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.622430.8%69 W · 155 L-0.5wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Heat43c3,205$1,378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,827.0874748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad69…b7a6backed Heat45c3,100$1,395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,704.98966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+23.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Nuggets1c3,093$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.997211%7 W · 714 L-2.6wins0.00per pick1cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12fd…90c0backed Heat45c3,086$1,389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,697.5228439.8%113 W · 171 L+0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9534…1fe8backed Heat45c3,033$1,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,653.5726247.7%125 W · 137 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Heat66c3,023$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,023.2247856.7%271 W · 207 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d43…bc5ebacked Nuggets54c3,000$1,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6209451.1%48 W · 46 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cf1…af48backed Nuggets58c2,917$1,692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,692.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xface…2115backed Nuggets55c2,850$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,560.461838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.