NBA · resolved market
Spread: Nuggets (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe48e2db962a3cad5cd638cf09d1ca86311252b744fde83231697902c7f1692b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heatof Nuggets, Heat
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,839
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,667
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,839 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Heat | 59c | 5,491$3,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,269.75 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbde3…4a49backed Nuggets | 42c | 4,444$1,866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,866.47 | 272 | 51.1%139 W · 133 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nuggets | 15c | 3,964$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.92 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Heat | 59c | 1,072$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.75 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Heat | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…dbc6backed Heat | 58c | 862.07$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.07 | 476 | 51.7%246 W · 230 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…7993backed Heat | 58c | 328$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.04 | 617 | 47.8%295 W · 322 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c3…0e32backed Nuggets | 42c | 238.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Heat | 59c | 105$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.05 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Heat | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Heat | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Nuggets | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5256…24a5backed Heat | 59c | 74.58$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.58 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Heat | 59c | 67.88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Heat | 59c | 62$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Heat | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Heat | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Heat | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 493 | 58.6%289 W · 204 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce3e…2f24backed Heat | 60c | 18.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 250 | 56.8%142 W · 108 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nuggets (-4.5)this page
- Nuggets vs. HeatHeat won
- Nuggets vs. Heat: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Heat: O/U 243.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Heat: O/U 244.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Heat: O/U 245.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Heat: O/U 246.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-1.5)Heat won
- Spread: Nuggets (-2.5)Heat won
- Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.