NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Heat: O/U 245.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37d13447010e613090dee6cd87b745c14b379fbee7093c9c72938d50e27e55bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,558
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,607
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,558 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 49c | 26,691$13,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,653.47 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Under | 52c | 24,180$12,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,473.76 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4278…0e92backed Under | 52c | 3,908$2,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,032.12 | 416 | 52.2%217 W · 199 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Over | 46c | 3,102$1,427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,675.21 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 49c | 2,234$1,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,131.74 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc31a…31d0backed Under | 51c | 2,100$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,071 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…d8febacked Under | 51c | 2,100$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,071 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42e9…80a8backed Over | 49c | 2,100$1,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,071 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8caf…13d0backed Over | 49c | 2,100$1,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,071 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde19…8e43backed Under | 51c | 2,100$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,071 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d30…c94fbacked Over | 49c | 2,100$1,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,071 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Under | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Under | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Under | 51c | 676.61$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.07 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0500…6158backed Under | 50c | 528$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 497.33$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.67 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 54c | 250$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 50c | 226.32$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.16 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 485 | 46.4%225 W · 260 L | -14.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 46c | 173.91$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.91 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b20…7c67backed Under | 52c | 152.42$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…530fbacked Over | 51c | 114.01$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.86 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -12.3wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Over | 46c | 108.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.44 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03c4…01bdbacked Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 51c | 103.92$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 493 | 58.6%289 W · 204 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70df…bca8backed Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 327 | 50.2%164 W · 163 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Over | 46c | 89.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 734 | 45.5%334 W · 400 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc59c…6c14backed Over | 51c | 74.22$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.37 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe56e…0bb4backed Under | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 242 | 48.3%117 W · 125 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a8…4bf7backed Under | 54c | 52.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa709…8d1dbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Under | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 230 | 47.4%109 W · 121 L | +19.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…0755backed Over | 48c | 27.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Heat: O/U 245.5this page
- Nuggets vs. HeatHeat won
- Nuggets vs. Heat: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Heat: O/U 243.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Heat: O/U 244.5Over won
- Nuggets vs. Heat: O/U 246.5Over won
- Spread: Nuggets (-1.5)Heat won
- Spread: Nuggets (-2.5)Heat won
- Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)Heat won
- Spread: Nuggets (-4.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.