College Football · resolved market
Spread: Clemson (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac5fb44adbb9d2c178b33125a5fc2a23afaff3854cb8e8b2b1d46c65d69166d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Penn Stateof Clemson, Penn State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $907,054
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,209,651
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $907,054 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Penn State | 53c | 160,186$84,548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75,638.14 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x801e…ad90backed Penn State | 52c | 145,189$75,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69,690.87 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +7.6wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +46%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed Clemson | 48c | 128,854$62,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62,169.57 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb889…a430backed Clemson | 51c | 100,000$50,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50,500 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +18%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Clemson | 47c | 84,156$39,553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39,553.13 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Penn State | 51c | 73,411$37,783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,627.74 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Penn State | 50c | 66,734$33,468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,266.08 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Clemson | 49c | 32,866$16,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,188.43 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Clemson | 49c | 18,197$8,871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,870.57 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf782…6849backed Clemson | 48c | 18,119$8,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,651.62 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Clemson | 49c | 15,366$7,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,515.4 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07c8…2696backed Clemson | 49c | 13,680$6,703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,703 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Clemson | 48c | 13,333$6,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,399.84 | 227 | 50.7%115 W · 112 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…f62dbacked Clemson | 50c | 10,158$5,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,080 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Penn State | 49c | 9,003$4,409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,593.53 | 385 | 46%177 W · 208 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Clemson | 49c | 7,211$3,566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,566.03 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Penn State | 80c | 5,240$4,192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,047.96 | 76 | 64.5%49 W · 27 L | +9.0wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Clemson | 49c | 4,002$1,961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,960.75 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Penn State | 80c | 3,505$2,804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.05 | 205 | 53.7%110 W · 95 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Clemson | 48c | 3,457$1,659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,659.36 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2734…6d9ebacked Penn State | 53c | 3,020$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,419.52 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Penn State | 49c | 2,902$1,422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,479.8 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Clemson | 50c | 2,500$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Clemson | 50c | 2,285$1,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,142.5 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Clemson | 48c | 1,600$773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$773 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Clemson | 47c | 923$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.81 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…aa68backed Clemson | 47c | 797.07$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.62 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb525…bdc7backed Penn State | 51c | 681.33$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.85 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Clemson | 49c | 545.82$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.45 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Penn State | 79c | 540$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.21 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Clemson | 49c | 510.2$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 174 | 50%87 W · 87 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Penn State | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Clemson | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.8wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Clemson | 50c | 418$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 94 | 57.4%54 W · 40 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8c…237dbacked Penn State | 80c | 402.98$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.6 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed Penn State | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Clemson | 50c | 400$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.88 | 422 | 44.5%188 W · 234 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Clemson | 48c | 367.73$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.51 | 89 | 48.3%43 W · 46 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa019…83c8backed Clemson | 47c | 357.77$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…dca3backed Clemson | 49c | 306.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c58…8c00backed Clemson | 49c | 305.57$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.73 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -5.1wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x397d…794fbacked Penn State | 50c | 300.1$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.1 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ade…e692backed Clemson | 50c | 268.12$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.06 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Penn State | 80c | 240$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e57…21cbbacked Penn State | 54c | 231.48$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.48 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.26per pick | 51cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x657c…0cc5backed Penn State | 50c | 205.9$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.95 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Clemson | 50c | 189.06$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.53 | 284 | 40.8%116 W · 168 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Clemson | 52c | 153.85$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Penn State | 49c | 144$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.44 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Clemson | 48c | 129.09$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.96 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f8…79a8backed Clemson | 48c | 128.26$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.87 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf492…29c2backed Clemson | 49c | 126.55$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.01 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c17…0458backed Clemson | 50c | 108.59$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Clemson | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Clemson | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 134 | 32.8%44 W · 90 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…39fdbacked Clemson | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7690…dfcebacked Clemson | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ad…1052backed Penn State | 51c | 91.12$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…0755backed Penn State | 51c | 86.75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.75 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Penn State | 80c | 82$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06f4…758dbacked Penn State | 49c | 80.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4465…baafbacked Clemson | 50c | 78.8$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Clemson | 48c | 61.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -5.1wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c7…ca6cbacked Clemson | 47c | 50.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Clemson | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -7.9wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Penn State | 51c | 45.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0f…09debacked Clemson | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Clemson | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Clemson | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea0e…a5dabacked Clemson | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…c123backed Penn State | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +29%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…530fbacked Penn State | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…7ca5backed Clemson | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b41…f624backed Clemson | 53c | 25.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…ca38backed Clemson | 51c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab2e…8b4bbacked Clemson | 51c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b33…8c31backed Penn State | 50c | 23.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb780…e7a2backed Clemson | 51c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 50cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0e…4049backed Penn State | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +136.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ad…5a42backed Clemson | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d7…f2d1backed Clemson | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Clemson (-2.5)this page
- O/U 48.5Under won
- Penn State vs. ClemsonPenn State won
- Penn State vs. Clemson: 1H MoneylinePenn State won
- Penn State vs. Clemson: O/U 47.5Under won
- Spread: Clemson (-3.5)Penn State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.