College Football · resolved market
Spread: Clemson (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31b5f2e7eff25fe6227e91855220dfd198a39d9c8c0ba143cae4867f68c5b72b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Penn Stateof Clemson, Penn State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,549
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,653
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,549 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Penn State | 58c | 6,098$3,534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,563.99 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Clemson | 42c | 4,679$1,965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,965.35 | 118 | 51.7%61 W · 57 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5f…1ae6backed Penn State | 55c | 907.25$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.39 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Penn State | 54c | 736.62$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.19 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Clemson | 43c | 650$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.5 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Penn State | 57c | 650$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.5 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | -10.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x17cd…7423backed Clemson | 42c | 557.12$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -50%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Clemson | 45c | 336.57$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.46 | 284 | 40.8%116 W · 168 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Clemson | 42c | 287.5$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.75 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Clemson | 41c | 250$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Clemson | 46c | 231.01$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.32 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Clemson | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed Penn State | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Clemson | 42c | 172.41$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.41 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5912…2fe0backed Penn State | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Clemson | 42c | 101$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.86 | 94 | 57.4%54 W · 40 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Clemson | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Clemson | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -7.9wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Penn State | 58c | 48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 290 | 55.2%160 W · 130 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Clemson | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Clemson | 33c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Clemson | 42c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Clemson | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Clemson | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b51…7292backed Penn State | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Clemson (-3.5)this page
- O/U 48.5Under won
- Penn State vs. ClemsonPenn State won
- Penn State vs. Clemson: 1H MoneylinePenn State won
- Penn State vs. Clemson: O/U 47.5Under won
- Spread: Clemson (-2.5)Penn State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.