NHL · resolved market
Penguins vs. Maple Leafs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0417c06f8edd73d43cd199a3cadb716b2ff424ca197f5b4a321b1abe8ed577e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Maple Leafsof Penguins, Maple Leafs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,139,495
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,193,912
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,139,495 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 680 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaefe…1e4abacked Penguins | 47c | 235,000$110,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110,450 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 52cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Maple Leafs | 53c | 192,730$102,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90,583.09 | 132 | 51.5%68 W · 64 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Maple Leafs | 58c | 183,558$106,266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77,292.76 | 1,345 | 54.8%737 W · 608 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Penguins | 45c | 181,369$82,508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82,507.77 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98f7…b3e4backed Maple Leafs | 53c | 136,522$72,357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64,165.24 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a8…a48ebacked Penguins | 47c | 104,118$48,936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48,935.56 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Maple Leafs | 54c | 36,133$19,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,782.51 | 333 | 45.6%152 W · 181 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Maple Leafs | 55c | 35,000$19,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,900 | 566 | 49.5%280 W · 286 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf152…64aabacked Penguins | 45c | 35,000$15,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,749.89 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Maple Leafs | 55c | 30,000$16,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,599.95 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cb…d096backed Maple Leafs | 67c | 17,551$11,707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,843.83 | 387 | 38%147 W · 240 L | -13.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Penguins | 46c | 15,287$6,992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,991.86 | 282 | 51.8%146 W · 136 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Maple Leafs | 54c | 15,232$8,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,006.72 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Maple Leafs | 55c | 15,000$8,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,750 | 425 | 52.2%222 W · 203 L | +25.0wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Penguins | 45c | 15,000$6,690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,689.95 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07c8…2696backed Penguins | 47c | 14,433$6,782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,782 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…6793backed Penguins | 27c | 13,471$3,664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,664 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Penguins | 46c | 13,066$5,993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,992.9 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Penguins | 45c | 12,529$5,638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,638.23 | 195 | 55.4%108 W · 87 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b90…2194backed Penguins | 46c | 10,000$4,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,599.99 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Maple Leafs | 54c | 10,000$5,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,599.98 | 329 | 46.8%154 W · 175 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d43…bc5ebacked Maple Leafs | 54c | 10,000$5,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,599.97 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Penguins | 46c | 9,726$4,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,520.44 | 301 | 52.5%158 W · 143 L | +17.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27cb…169ebacked Maple Leafs | 53c | 9,191$4,871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,319.82 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +145.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ee…697bbacked Penguins | 47c | 8,888$4,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,177.36 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Maple Leafs | 63c | 8,207$5,172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,034.5 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Penguins | 40c | 7,789$3,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,086.91 | 393 | 44.8%176 W · 217 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67bb…b6efbacked Maple Leafs | 55c | 7,773$4,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,497.73 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Penguins | 45c | 7,609$3,431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,430.76 | 793 | 50.1%397 W · 396 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Maple Leafs | 60c | 7,573$4,528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,044.92 | 854 | 64.2%548 W · 306 L | +64.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda5f…2e9bbacked Penguins | 29c | 7,095$2,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,087.77 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Maple Leafs | 67c | 6,385$4,257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,127.95 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…d9e8backed Penguins | 47c | 6,300$2,958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,957.55 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Maple Leafs | 55c | 5,454$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,454.3 | 332 | 43.7%145 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Maple Leafs | 55c | 5,160$2,821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,338.74 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8366…21ebbacked Penguins | 50c | 5,115$2,533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,533.01 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd8…f306backed Maple Leafs | 53c | 5,000$2,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,350 | 316 | 54.7%173 W · 143 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…c3bebacked Penguins | 47c | 5,000$2,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,350 | 249 | 45.4%113 W · 136 L | -16.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Penguins | 46c | 5,000$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,299.98 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.8wins | -0.42per pick | 53cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Maple Leafs | 53c | 4,966$2,632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,333.72 | 144 | 51.4%74 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddd…3d9abacked Maple Leafs | 57c | 4,697$2,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,004.1 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed Maple Leafs | 54c | 4,566$2,466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,100.36 | 246 | 54.5%134 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb68…a240backed Penguins | 44c | 4,545$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 500 | 49.6%248 W · 252 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Maple Leafs | 53c | 4,473$2,386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,086.59 | 520 | 50%260 W · 260 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf782…6849backed Maple Leafs | 54c | 4,350$2,349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,001 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Maple Leafs | 54c | 4,215$2,276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,939.09 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…38adbacked Penguins | 48c | 4,196$1,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,996 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Maple Leafs | 54c | 4,000$2,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,840 | 866 | 49.9%432 W · 434 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62b6…b6a7backed Maple Leafs | 75c | 3,931$2,949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$982.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe948…ff23backed Maple Leafs | 54c | 3,704$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,703.7 | 296 | 51.7%153 W · 143 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Maple Leafs | 53c | 3,676$1,948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,727.64 | 479 | 51.4%246 W · 233 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3679…2bacbacked Maple Leafs | 70c | 3,628$2,549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,078.96 | 89 | 52.8%47 W · 42 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Penguins | 46c | 3,500$1,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,610 | 752 | 51.7%389 W · 363 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Penguins | 46c | 3,161$1,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440.75 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Maple Leafs | 62c | 3,106$1,918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,188.06 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Maple Leafs | 64c | 3,102$1,970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,131.9 | 1,301 | 52.6%684 W · 617 L | +23.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Maple Leafs | 53c | 3,000$1,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,410 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ec…a946backed Maple Leafs | 55c | 2,919$1,603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,316 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c16…09cbbacked Maple Leafs | 53c | 2,869$1,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,348.3 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Penguins | 46c | 2,697$1,241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,240.62 | 322 | 51.9%167 W · 155 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…0944backed Maple Leafs | 57c | 2,670$1,522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,148.1 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7f…9550backed Maple Leafs | 55c | 2,635$1,449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,185.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Maple Leafs | 54c | 2,618$1,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,192.72 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5f…92e8backed Maple Leafs | 54c | 2,495$1,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,147.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ef…10c0backed Penguins | 46c | 2,449$1,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,126.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9166…b479backed Maple Leafs | 55c | 2,440$1,342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,098 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa85a…01d4backed Maple Leafs | 55c | 2,399$1,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,079.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f15…8fe8backed Penguins | 46c | 2,399$1,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,103.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d46…e089backed Maple Leafs | 55c | 2,350$1,292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,057.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad4…d241backed Penguins | 46c | 2,349$1,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab03…847fbacked Penguins | 46c | 2,300$1,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,058 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d9…de3abacked Maple Leafs | 55c | 2,299$1,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,034.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Maple Leafs | 64c | 2,249$1,436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$813.27 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Penguins | 1c | 2,222$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 745 | 0.7%5 W · 740 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -94.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Maple Leafs | 55c | 2,210$1,216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$994.5 | 201 | 47.8%96 W · 105 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb123…0a15backed Penguins | 47c | 2,200$1,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,034 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6695…6f1abacked Maple Leafs | 75c | 2,096$1,572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8563…f21ebacked Maple Leafs | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78f7…2c5dbacked Maple Leafs | 54c | 1,939$1,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$892.12 | 205 | 52.2%107 W · 98 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4eb…161fbacked Maple Leafs | 54c | 1,890$1,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$869.57 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26d2…6b85backed Penguins | 46c | 1,888$868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$868.48 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb2…c8bfbacked Maple Leafs | 55c | 1,818$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.18 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4fc…8af7backed Maple Leafs | 54c | 1,800$963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837 | 602 | 49.5%298 W · 304 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4366…c73ebacked Maple Leafs | 53c | 1,800$954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x283d…0dadbacked Maple Leafs | 56c | 1,786$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.71 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3859…3070backed Maple Leafs | 75c | 1,600$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce99…637ebacked Penguins | 47c | 1,511$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710 | 269 | 46.1%124 W · 145 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Maple Leafs | 73c | 1,506$1,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.71 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -6.6wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -28%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x96bc…7fb4backed Penguins | 45c | 1,500$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675 | 248 | 45.2%112 W · 136 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Maple Leafs | 55c | 1,500$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675 | 632 | 49.5%313 W · 319 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x490a…1d4bbacked Penguins | 36c | 1,500$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5834…f0cbbacked Maple Leafs | 75c | 1,424$1,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.89 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Penguins | 43c | 1,417$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.04 | 892 | 49.9%445 W · 447 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe529…245dbacked Maple Leafs | 65c | 1,408$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.33 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Maple Leafs | 70c | 1,400$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.08 | 263 | 44.5%117 W · 146 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdea1…742fbacked Penguins | 1c | 1,400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Maple Leafs | 54c | 1,354$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.48 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Maple Leafs | 54c | 1,300$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598 | 684 | 49.9%341 W · 343 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33d2…952ebacked Penguins | 47c | 1,300$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Penguins | 35c | 1,267$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.18 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -20.5wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Penguins vs. Maple Leafsthis page
- Penguins vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5Over won
- Penguins vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)Maple Leafs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.