NHL · resolved market
Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa43dbebfd176121be1b9e98beefb6a1765313e38af5cf513d33c0344ede2c002
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Maple Leafsof Maple Leafs, Penguins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,348
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,582
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,348 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb973…ff16backed Maple Leafs | 35c | 3,038$1,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,987.16 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Penguins | 66c | 1,571$1,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,041.32 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Penguins | 65c | 838.8$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.22 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Maple Leafs | 34c | 571.99$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.75 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb589…33d4backed Maple Leafs | 25c | 471.77$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.83 | 134 | 35.8%48 W · 86 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d43…bc5ebacked Maple Leafs | 32c | 274.58$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.72 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44b9…0598backed Maple Leafs | 34c | 258.82$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.82 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Penguins | 67c | 243$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.81 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Penguins | 65c | 240$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Penguins | 78c | 200$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.85 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Penguins | 66c | 192$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.72 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Penguins | 68c | 154.41$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Penguins | 66c | 152$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.32 | 481 | 61.3%295 W · 186 L | +21.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Maple Leafs | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.52 | 212 | 53.3%113 W · 99 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd3…c066backed Penguins | 68c | 150.88$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Penguins | 65c | 137.83$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.59 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8c…237dbacked Penguins | 66c | 129.97$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.1 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Penguins | 62c | 125$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Penguins | 65c | 120$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 583 | 46.5%271 W · 312 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc079…8881backed Maple Leafs | 44c | 113.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.63 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Maple Leafs | 28c | 109.78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.04 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Maple Leafs | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Penguins | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 312 | 57.4%179 W · 133 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Penguins | 60c | 99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.84 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed Penguins | 67c | 99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.33 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Penguins | 65c | 90$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 481 | 49.3%237 W · 244 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Maple Leafs | 37c | 88.23$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.81 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c78…1af0backed Maple Leafs | 34c | 85.29$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.29 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Maple Leafs | 33c | 75.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.33 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Penguins | 66c | 73.03$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.12 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Penguins | 65c | 72$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 271 | 48.7%132 W · 139 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70af…bcf2backed Maple Leafs | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…c8c0backed Penguins | 67c | 68$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.56 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Penguins | 67c | 67$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.89 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd53…a861backed Penguins | 66c | 63$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…c4e5backed Penguins | 67c | 61$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.87 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Maple Leafs | 34c | 56.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.31 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2348…9d10backed Maple Leafs | 33c | 56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.52 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Penguins | 65c | 54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 605 | 49.3%298 W · 307 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Penguins | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…bdfcbacked Maple Leafs | 34c | 48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6d…d6bdbacked Maple Leafs | 34c | 47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…8248backed Penguins | 67c | 46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4e…e3a4backed Maple Leafs | 34c | 45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +26%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedc2…e450backed Maple Leafs | 33c | 44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.48 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4e…9b6fbacked Maple Leafs | 33c | 42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…668abacked Maple Leafs | 33c | 42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…9b74backed Maple Leafs | 33c | 42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca65…6746backed Maple Leafs | 34c | 39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Penguins | 65c | 38.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6014…5a58backed Maple Leafs | 33c | 38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e29…c992backed Maple Leafs | 34c | 38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Maple Leafs | 33c | 37.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf9…142bbacked Maple Leafs | 33c | 37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…f56bbacked Penguins | 65c | 36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 204 | 47.5%97 W · 107 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed Penguins | 65c | 36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Penguins | 65c | 36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 291 | 47.4%138 W · 153 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed Penguins | 65c | 36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 194 | 42.8%83 W · 111 L | -12.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Penguins | 65c | 36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 196 | 47.4%93 W · 103 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Penguins | 65c | 36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 190 | 46.8%89 W · 101 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Penguins | 69c | 30.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Penguins | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 216 | 48.1%104 W · 112 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Penguins | 57c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6c…9a1dbacked Penguins | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…dce6backed Penguins | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…592bbacked Penguins | 68c | 19.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84fc…9db4backed Penguins | 65c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed Penguins | 65c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 231 | 44.6%103 W · 128 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…2783backed Penguins | 65c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 99 | 52.5%52 W · 47 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…c47fbacked Penguins | 65c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…3f2fbacked Penguins | 65c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2d…2570backed Penguins | 65c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 175 | 52%91 W · 84 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6afd…5cb1backed Penguins | 65c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked Penguins | 65c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 209 | 42.6%89 W · 120 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…c728backed Penguins | 65c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 126 | 52.4%66 W · 60 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Penguins | 65c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 418 | 51.4%215 W · 203 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b82…2d2abacked Penguins | 65c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Penguins | 65c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4edd…b1a1backed Penguins | 65c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)this page
- Penguins vs. Maple LeafsMaple Leafs won
- Penguins vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5Over won
- Penguins vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.