NHL · resolved market
Penguins vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8cc7913caf722018d7faede767b725af840eb9f4e195c1ee09a9d1eba59a461e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,639
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,127
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,639 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 40c | 1,223$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.59 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e1…e25abacked Over | 60c | 1,040$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.87 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 40c | 443.99$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.59 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 40c | 443.07$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.36 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 60c | 403.02$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.26 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8c…4bc2backed Over | 60c | 241.55$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.62 | 253 | 58.5%148 W · 105 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa521…4599backed Under | 41c | 139$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.99 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3233…0dd5backed Over | 61c | 105$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.29per pick | 53cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c6…fb72backed Over | 60c | 93.53$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.41 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +4.5wins | +0.25per pick | 53cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1a52…9ad6backed Over | 60c | 90.97$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.39 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Under | 41c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Over | 61c | 69.15$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 303 | 49.5%150 W · 153 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 39c | 69.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4970…21f6backed Under | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd0…4938backed Under | 42c | 59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7563…1fb3backed Under | 41c | 58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Over | 74c | 55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e4…24c2backed Over | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 181 | 49.7%90 W · 91 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed Under | 41c | 42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf9…142bbacked Over | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6966…409bbacked Over | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b1…cac1backed Over | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f53…1ddcbacked Over | 58c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x597f…e9cfbacked Over | 59c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Under | 41c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 59c | 25.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92e5…d129backed Over | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3be0…e4e5backed Over | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e57…41f0backed Over | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa029…c912backed Over | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaebc…bb17backed Over | 59c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe91…4462backed Over | 59c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22e5…81acbacked Over | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Penguins vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5this page
- Penguins vs. Maple LeafsMaple Leafs won
- Penguins vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)Maple Leafs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.