TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Bears vs. 49ers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
49ersof Bears, 49ers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,384,268
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,674,185

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,384,268 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,149 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0d3b…c46bbacked 49ers65c1,065,552$697,601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367,950.9611145.9%51 W · 60 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33f6…e0debacked Bears35c594,740$209,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209,949.651030%3 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-41.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7669…f58cbacked Bears0c396,000$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3962948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5350…2fdabacked Bears34c350,000$119,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119,0004250%21 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ca8…bf49backed Bears34c325,833$110,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110,0001936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ff2…dbbdbacked 49ers64c210,000$134,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75,599.963767.6%25 W · 12 L+5.7wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+32.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Bears36c200,000$72,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72,00010333%34 W · 69 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Bears39c193,971$75,707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75,707.1116955%93 W · 76 L+15.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfa21…1438backed Bears36c133,022$47,347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47,347.366459.4%38 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Bears34c115,566$39,292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,292.4617454.6%95 W · 79 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed 49ers64c112,000$71,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,32027454.7%150 W · 124 L+13.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed 49ers65c100,000$64,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,50016051.9%83 W · 77 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43d4…13a2backed 49ers72c100,000$72,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,767.613135.5%11 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-23.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2643…39aebacked Bears36c93,406$33,626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,626.162065%13 W · 7 L+3.3wins+0.17per pick48cpaid+44.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed 49ers63c75,334$47,445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,889.5573651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked 49ers63c75,000$47,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,399.935453.7%29 W · 25 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x31c5…ede4backed 49ers64c74,088$47,394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,693.3516545.5%75 W · 90 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked 49ers63c73,253$46,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,808.6419152.9%101 W · 90 L+0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Bears37c67,340$24,587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,58718650%93 W · 93 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb889…a430backed 49ers64c60,000$38,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,6003850%19 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a88…41ccbacked 49ers66c58,932$38,632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,299.734440.9%18 W · 26 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-24.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Bears39c56,007$21,815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,815.286547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked 49ers64c53,209$34,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,998.3311544.3%51 W · 64 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-7.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Bears34c50,000$17,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,00024652%128 W · 118 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9158…fa7bbacked Bears35c50,000$17,489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,489.0611445.6%52 W · 62 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked 49ers65c50,000$32,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,499.9912144.6%54 W · 67 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked 49ers69c44,494$30,864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,629.8975852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Bears34c39,732$13,617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,616.8523244.4%103 W · 129 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed 49ers64c39,192$25,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,097.2531854.7%174 W · 144 L+16.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked 49ers61c38,673$23,606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,067.1220026%52 W · 148 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked 49ers69c36,131$24,867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,263.7830043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d19…733abacked 49ers64c34,011$21,767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,243.921957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d58…9a15backed Bears26c33,998$8,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,919.922740.7%11 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked 49ers62c32,883$20,537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,345.5783147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Bears34c32,018$10,908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,908.4947738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed 49ers68c31,555$21,426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,128.688164.2%52 W · 29 L+12.1wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+137.5%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Bears38c29,583$11,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,135.5653348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e8f…52f4backed Bears49c28,000$13,624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,623.64650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+63%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Bears38c26,217$10,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,012.4450242.4%213 W · 289 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed 49ers65c25,015$16,279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,73653253%282 W · 250 L+19.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbec7…5977backed Bears38c25,000$9,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,5002642.3%11 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed 49ers64c24,328$15,681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,647.1539447.7%188 W · 206 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b5a…bb9bbacked 49ers48c24,282$11,655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,626.74143.9%18 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed 49ers67c24,111$16,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,018.1919651.5%101 W · 95 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88a2…d974backed Bears36c23,003$8,281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,28113142%55 W · 76 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Bears15c22,476$3,341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,341.420757.5%119 W · 88 L+17.5wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+13.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x84cb…28adbacked Bears51c22,071$11,281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,281.342528%7 W · 18 L-6.3wins-0.25per pick53cpaid-46.6%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Bears32c20,310$6,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,40131543.2%136 W · 179 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe258…2330backed 49ers64c20,000$12,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,200955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+29.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xedc8…cca9backed Bears36c20,000$7,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,200540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5da4…e203backed Bears26c20,000$5,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,199.993548.6%17 W · 18 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+21.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Bears36c20,000$7,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,299.9314342%60 W · 83 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked 49ers59c19,031$11,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,807.2212748%61 W · 66 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc31d…4ebebacked 49ers64c18,326$11,729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,597.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+29.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x226b…cad6backed Bears39c18,315$7,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,106.5923937.7%90 W · 149 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x92b1…6695backed Bears36c17,775$6,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,481.851136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd36…a8acbacked 49ers69c17,000$11,663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,336.516645.5%30 W · 36 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf819…d410backed Bears42c16,530$6,865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,865.175345.3%24 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked 49ers65c15,500$10,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,4252347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65cd…1e0bbacked 49ers69c14,429$9,984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,445.351752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4a3…0848backed 49ers70c14,387$10,049 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,337.694252.4%22 W · 20 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed 49ers46c14,000$6,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,519.987440.5%30 W · 44 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed 49ers60c13,666$8,176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,489.527644.2%122 W · 154 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8935…837dbacked Bears36c13,617$4,902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,902.17147.9%34 W · 37 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe916…4563backed Bears48c13,069$6,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,242.066965.2%45 W · 24 L+9.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+30.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5677…2ce9backed 49ers73c12,277$8,979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,297.581866.7%12 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick63cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0e3…29ebbacked 49ers72c12,000$8,595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,4051573.3%11 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+21.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Bears37c11,812$4,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,320.511643.1%50 W · 66 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7702…9791backed 49ers70c11,774$8,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,545.93271.9%23 W · 9 L+5.1wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+39.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa672…f083backed Bears28c11,534$3,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,237.3130%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed 49ers60c11,000$6,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,40026650.8%135 W · 131 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x490e…73adbacked Bears39c10,901$4,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,299.731241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed 49ers74c10,800$8,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,797.993847.4%18 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Bears37c10,476$3,848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,848.2827348.7%133 W · 140 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf93f…f94bbacked Bears34c10,000$3,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,35514438.9%56 W · 88 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Bears35c10,000$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,50035848.6%174 W · 184 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff7a…4c4cbacked Bears34c10,000$3,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,400633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-41.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Bears36c10,000$3,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,60012944.2%57 W · 72 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf410…ca73backed Bears34c10,000$3,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,4005536.4%20 W · 35 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f82…9b01backed 49ers63c10,000$6,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,700.192236.4%8 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+13.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0a1…7ae9backed Bears35c9,967$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,500333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-53.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2232…f6fabacked 49ers74c9,674$7,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,517.212470.8%17 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick68cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed 49ers49c9,668$4,755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,912.79853.1%52 W · 46 L+9.1wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+10.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xae0f…f647backed 49ers59c9,469$5,573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,896.2311252.7%59 W · 53 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+18.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Bears38c9,401$3,619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,619.1147348.4%229 W · 244 L+1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8366…21ebbacked Bears50c9,267$4,670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,669.761258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+16.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4534…f867backed Bears38c9,000$3,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,375.012941.4%12 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked 49ers65c8,849$5,752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,097.061,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x019d…2b01backed Bears52c8,654$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,5001926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f5a…9ecdbacked Bears36c8,611$3,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,1005038%19 W · 31 L+4.0wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+7.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed 49ers65c8,538$5,529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,009.354451.7%281 W · 263 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad6a…9dbdbacked Bears36c8,408$3,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0292638.5%10 W · 16 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+25.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdddc…ced2backed Bears36c8,333$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0003138.7%12 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c2f…3794backed Bears33c8,311$2,717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,7178128.4%23 W · 58 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f1a…6dc0backed Bears36c8,000$2,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,8807051.4%36 W · 34 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01ba…b77abacked 49ers62c8,000$4,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,039.93757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf00b…517cbacked Bears34c7,742$2,602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,601.53633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked 49ers64c7,252$4,655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,597.2915446.8%72 W · 82 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked 49ers65c7,115$4,624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,491.211,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe212…d5f4backed 49ers67c6,961$4,655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,306.436850%34 W · 34 L-6.1wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-15%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.