NFL · resolved market

Spread: 49ers (-3.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xadbe599af220e164823a2d6de7ca4dc1f82c801529ef659da3356e05d91f13a9

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: 49ersof 49ers, Bears
Resolved: Dec 29, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $2,207,192
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $2,241,918

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,207,192 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 296 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NFL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0d3b…c46bbacked 49ers	52c	1,610,022$832,678 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$777,344.47	111	45.9%51 W · 60 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Bears	48c	475,000$228,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$228,000	300	43.7%131 W · 169 L	-4.4wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e25…0af8backed Bears	49c	408,180$200,008 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200,008.2	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-1.9wins	-0.18per pick	54cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Bears	48c	364,753$175,209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175,209.11	865	47.9%414 W · 451 L	-6.6wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Bears	48c	232,838$111,762 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111,762.09	174	54.6%95 W · 79 L	+8.9wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x777d…5143backed Bears	50c	173,837$86,221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86,221.27	24	41.7%10 W · 14 L	-2.1wins	-0.09per pick	50cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x801e…ad90backed Bears	48c	169,900$82,051 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82,050.99	30	50%15 W · 15 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed 49ers	51c	92,847$47,576 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45,270.93	473	48.4%229 W · 244 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked 49ers	51c	81,221$41,386 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39,835.32	533	48.4%258 W · 275 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Bears	48c	52,829$25,579 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25,579.03	274	54.7%150 W · 124 L	+13.3wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed 49ers	50c	50,000$25,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25,000	160	51.9%83 W · 77 L	+5.2wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed 49ers	52c	41,600$21,632 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19,968	67	64.2%43 W · 24 L	+9.7wins	+0.14per pick	50cpaid	+35.3%equal weight	62+0.10 edge/pick
0xb889…a430backed Bears	48c	32,444$15,573 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15,572.83	38	50%19 W · 19 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed 49ers	50c	22,935$11,468 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11,467.45	168	60.7%102 W · 66 L	+18.7wins	+0.11per pick	50cpaid	+21.3%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3b5a…bb9bbacked 49ers	50c	20,717$10,358 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,358.27	41	43.9%18 W · 23 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x07c8…2696backed 49ers	48c	18,848$9,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,848.2	59	57.6%34 W · 25 L	+7.1wins	+0.12per pick	46cpaid	+29.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x87b6…4ababacked 49ers	51c	18,317$9,342 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,975.41	44	52.3%23 W · 21 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11e2…26ccbacked 49ers	50c	15,000$7,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,500	94	42.6%40 W · 54 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1a38…8fb5backed Bears	51c	14,380$7,313 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,313	142	52.1%74 W · 68 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked 49ers	51c	13,493$6,926 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,566.58	1,065	51.3%546 W · 519 L	+25.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Bears	49c	13,000$6,370 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,369.97	266	50.8%135 W · 131 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Bears	48c	12,987$6,188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,188.35	736	51.2%377 W · 359 L	+25.9wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf782…6849backed Bears	48c	11,427$5,516 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,515.77	41	46.3%19 W · 22 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc468…530fbacked Bears	1c	11,028$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.35	42	59.5%25 W · 17 L	+5.5wins	+0.13per pick	47cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe796…7f5ebacked Bears	49c	10,000$4,880 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,879.99	37	24.3%9 W · 28 L	-4.2wins	-0.11per pick	36cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Bears	51c	9,804$5,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,000	106	48.1%51 W · 55 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc323…0171backed Bears	48c	9,292$4,460 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,460	29	44.8%13 W · 16 L	-1.9wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed 49ers	52c	9,000$4,680 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,320	265	47.2%125 W · 140 L	+10.4wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Bears	49c	8,578$4,162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,162.06	373	50.9%190 W · 183 L	+12.9wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1de3…0321backed 49ers	47c	7,000$3,320 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,680	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+1.0wins	+0.10per pick	50cpaid	+29.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Bears	47c	6,807$3,199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,199.28	246	52%128 W · 118 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Bears	48c	6,000$2,880 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,880	111	39.6%44 W · 67 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c09…c9b4backed Bears	53c	5,648$3,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,000	181	40.9%74 W · 107 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	+42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked 49ers	52c	5,577$2,921 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,656.36	1,196	49.9%597 W · 599 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5581…cb44backed Bears	50c	5,166$2,583 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,583	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	59cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed 49ers	55c	5,114$2,834 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,280.25	196	51.5%101 W · 95 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6911…947cbacked 49ers	51c	5,014$2,567 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,446.84	85	40%34 W · 51 L	-3.8wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Bears	50c	5,000$2,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,500	358	48.6%174 W · 184 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x201c…58bfbacked 49ers	50c	5,000$2,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,500	74	64.9%48 W · 26 L	+9.8wins	+0.13per pick	52cpaid	+28.6%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed 49ers	53c	4,860$2,566 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,294.38	647	47.3%306 W · 341 L	+42.5wins	+0.07per pick	41cpaid	+56.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x55a1…db28backed 49ers	60c	4,773$2,844 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,929.41	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.17per pick	51cpaid	-44.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2984…0fc6backed Bears	49c	4,082$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	47	44.7%21 W · 26 L	-4.0wins	-0.09per pick	53cpaid	-20%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed 49ers	51c	4,078$2,080 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,998.43	200	39.5%79 W · 121 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked 49ers	50c	4,008$1,987 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,021.7	127	48%61 W · 66 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x71a5…c3eabacked Bears	51c	3,900$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	34	29.4%10 W · 24 L	-7.7wins	-0.23per pick	52cpaid	-49.9%equal weight	35-0.13 edge/pick
0x8214…ef72backed Bears	49c	3,667$1,797 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,796.6	83	50.6%42 W · 41 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec92…98f5backed 49ers	50c	3,600$1,800 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,800	147	57.1%84 W · 63 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed 49ers	67c	3,070$2,060 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,010.42	684	46.1%315 W · 369 L	+16.9wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d43…bc5ebacked Bears	49c	3,000$1,470 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,470	23	60.9%14 W · 9 L	+3.1wins	+0.14per pick	47cpaid	+26.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1388…339abacked Bears	50c	3,000$1,490 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,490	101	42.6%43 W · 58 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Bears	52c	3,000$1,560 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,560	212	54.2%115 W · 97 L	+5.0wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed Bears	50c	2,893$1,446 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,446.33	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xea89…0b5fbacked 49ers	52c	2,885$1,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,384.62	50	46%23 W · 27 L	+2.1wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed 49ers	47c	2,575$1,216 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,359.31	195	43.6%85 W · 110 L	-3.5wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Bears	49c	2,500$1,225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,225	266	49.6%132 W · 134 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6757…7ecebacked 49ers	50c	2,500$1,250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,250	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.12per pick	55cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa313…e124backed Bears	50c	2,400$1,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,200	166	48.2%80 W · 86 L	+3.0wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked 49ers	53c	2,105$1,107 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$997.9	502	42.4%213 W · 289 L	-5.6wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2513…91fbbacked 49ers	49c	2,018$998 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,020.16	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x698b…4426backed 49ers	50c	2,000$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,000	43	48.8%21 W · 22 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe5f…d795backed Bears	47c	2,000$940 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$939.99	114	52.6%60 W · 54 L	+3.8wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Bears	49c	2,000$980 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$979.99	27	40.7%11 W · 16 L	-2.8wins	-0.10per pick	51cpaid	-24.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7234…1d85backed 49ers	50c	1,987$993 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$993.47	42	61.9%26 W · 16 L	+2.0wins	+0.05per pick	57cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked 49ers	52c	1,923$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$923.08	397	54.4%216 W · 181 L	+26.0wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb338…606ebacked 49ers	52c	1,915$996 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$919.2	49	49%24 W · 25 L	+1.5wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Bears	50c	1,900$950 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$950	257	44.4%114 W · 143 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb2c3…4d61backed 49ers	38c	1,798$683 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,115.35	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x7851…d471backed Bears	49c	1,700$833 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$833	141	51.8%73 W · 68 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Bears	50c	1,500$750 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$750	125	50.4%63 W · 62 L	+8.4wins	+0.07per pick	44cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf819…d410backed 49ers	53c	1,500$795 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$705	53	45.3%24 W · 29 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x68bf…3e67backed Bears	62c	1,479$917 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$916.76	22	50%11 W · 11 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Bears	51c	1,325$671 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$671.43	194	39.2%76 W · 118 L	-11.5wins	-0.06per pick	45cpaid	-16%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Bears	51c	1,200$606 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$606	172	51.7%89 W · 83 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Bears	52c	1,160$603 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$603.09	394	47.7%188 W · 206 L	-7.3wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked 49ers	49c	1,158$567 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$590.85	63	46%29 W · 34 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ae…f471backed 49ers	57c	1,150$654 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$496	36	52.8%19 W · 17 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6e7…caa8backed Bears	4c	1,100$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	54	9.3%5 W · 49 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x611a…e63ebacked Bears	4c	1,100$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	24	4.2%1 W · 23 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x206a…e438backed Bears	2c	1,055$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.14	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-2.0wins	-0.17per pick	50cpaid	-41.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked 49ers	63c	1,046$657 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$388.28	831	47.8%397 W · 434 L	+13.7wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4da0…8bb8backed Bears	2c	1,046$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.09	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd51b…9606backed Bears	48c	1,042$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	67	38.8%26 W · 41 L	-7.8wins	-0.12per pick	50cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2123…8d70backed Bears	49c	1,020$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$499.8	117	40.2%47 W · 70 L	-10.0wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x827a…8a2bbacked 49ers	51c	1,000$510 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$490	155	55.5%86 W · 69 L	+7.2wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5077…4e7cbacked Bears	50c	1,000$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	27	40.7%11 W · 16 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Bears	50c	1,000$495 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$495	187	45.5%85 W · 102 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x2dc0…fe28backed Bears	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9c8…44fbbacked Bears	49c	1,000$490 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$490	148	37.2%55 W · 93 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee36…3776backed Bears	51c	999.97$510 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$509.99	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+1.1wins	+0.14per pick	36cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d59…e0edbacked 49ers	51c	980.39$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$480.39	32	46.9%15 W · 17 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xff81…44c9backed 49ers	51c	980.39$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$480.39	73	61.6%45 W · 28 L	+7.8wins	+0.11per pick	51cpaid	+27.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Bears	49c	806.45$392 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$392.37	650	48.3%314 W · 336 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked 49ers	45c	800$364 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$436.13	139	59%82 W · 57 L	+12.5wins	+0.09per pick	50cpaid	+19.1%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x8021…0da8backed Bears	49c	796.2$394 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$394	45	51.1%23 W · 22 L	+3.7wins	+0.08per pick	43cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa61d…df1abacked 49ers	51c	784.31$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$384.31	105	55.2%58 W · 47 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x740b…1d47backed Bears	54c	734.78$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	105	48.6%51 W · 54 L	-4.2wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed 49ers	48c	726.05$345 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$380.61	356	48%171 W · 185 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0cbb…f8a3backed 49ers	51c	686.27$350 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$336.27	37	43.2%16 W · 21 L	-3.5wins	-0.09per pick	53cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc092…0cd9backed 49ers	51c	662.54$336 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$326.54	59	49.2%29 W · 30 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x35de…b39abacked 49ers	51c	631.37$322 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$309.37	201	43.3%87 W · 114 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: 49ers (-3.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event