TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Bears vs. 49ers: O/U 59.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$97,220
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$97,652

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,220 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x84cb…28adbacked Under52c80,492$41,848 inLost-$41,847.82528%7 W · 18 L-6.3wins-0.25per pick53cpaid-46.6%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Over50c41,801$20,816 inWon+$20,985.6816955%93 W · 76 L+15.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over53c23,727$12,521 inWon+$11,206.5483147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Over50c14,301$7,131 inWon+$7,170.4412748%61 W · 66 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Over47c10,785$5,112 inWon+$5,672.986547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under47c9,126$4,289 inLost-$4,289.373651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb74d…9b2abacked Over9c1,200$102 inWon+$1,0981323.1%3 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick11cpaid+128.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc2c3…0e32backed Under47c1,067$502 inLost-$501.57650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6e7…caa8backed Over9c1,000$87 inWon+$913549.3%5 W · 49 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06eb…1a5fbacked Under48c827.51$400 inLost-$4003767.6%25 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Over53c800$424 inWon+$37619651.5%101 W · 95 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3798…27fabacked Over7c640.94$44 inWon+$597.252516%4 W · 21 L+2.8wins+0.11per pick5cpaid+136.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3eb6…2abbbacked Over8c500$39 inWon+$4612711.1%3 W · 24 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ae2…20a3backed Over48c423.58$203 inWon+$220.261758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+14.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe235…aba2backed Under50c184.47$92 inLost-$92.246240.3%25 W · 37 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe02f…669fbacked Over11c150$17 inWon+$133.54920.4%10 W · 39 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-11.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cee…0ad1backed Under47c53.19$25 inLost-$251040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-28.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32f4…c885backed Under25c50$13 inLost-$12.531032.6%101 W · 209 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee20…5b37backed Over75c50$38 inWon+$12.57164.8%46 W · 25 L+10.7wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+33.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7c0f…09debacked Under48c40.82$20 inLost-$19.597841%32 W · 46 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6422…a346backed Under51c31.37$16 inLost-$163345.5%15 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbddd…5042backed Over79c18.99$15 inWon+$3.999263%58 W · 34 L+10.0wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+15.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.