TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Bears vs. 49ers: O/U 51.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$359,374
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$361,381

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $359,374 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 173 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1117…3532backed Under52c115,654$59,663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59,662.8931240.7%127 W · 185 L-22.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Over48c93,780$45,386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48,393.3127454.7%150 W · 124 L+13.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Under51c87,265$44,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,450.0386547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Over49c75,000$36,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,249.9816051.9%83 W · 77 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over50c35,791$17,722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,068.431,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x801e…ad90backed Under51c26,301$13,414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,413.753050%15 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Under51c21,335$10,878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,877.9926650.8%135 W · 131 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over49c20,040$9,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,220.475852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd89e…35fabacked Under48c14,498$7,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,022.442045%9 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Over51c11,000$5,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,44017648.9%86 W · 90 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Under52c10,221$5,315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,315.1135848.6%174 W · 184 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Over49c10,000$4,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,10013560%81 W · 54 L+14.7wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+21.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under50c9,000$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,50051352.2%268 W · 245 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Under50c9,000$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,50054451.7%281 W · 263 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Under52c8,000$4,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,16011139.6%44 W · 67 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over48c8,000$3,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,16083147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae0f…f647backed Under54c5,500$2,963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,962.811252.7%59 W · 53 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+18.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Under52c5,000$2,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,59036246.7%169 W · 193 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over46c4,755$2,187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,567.8573651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Under52c4,500$2,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,339.9926547.2%125 W · 140 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6911…947cbacked Over49c4,490$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,289.88540%34 W · 51 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-17.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x90f6…48f3backed Over48c4,248$2,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,208.924146.3%19 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over49c4,190$2,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,136.956852.3%297 W · 271 L+26.3wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb2e2…4e99backed Over49c4,082$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,081.636647%31 W · 35 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Over49c3,921$1,915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,006.5237350.9%190 W · 183 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over51c3,494$1,772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,722.1739447.7%188 W · 206 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked Over49c3,000$1,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,529.9915446.8%72 W · 82 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d43…bc5ebacked Over48c3,000$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,559.962360.9%14 W · 9 L+3.1wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+26.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x68ce…d06dbacked Over50c2,948$1,465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,483.532030%6 W · 14 L-3.1wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-43.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Under51c2,500$1,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,27519240.1%77 W · 115 L-16.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-21.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Under51c2,500$1,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,27526649.6%132 W · 134 L+0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x014c…f5b6backed Over49c2,449$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,248.9812343.1%53 W · 70 L+0.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over49c2,286$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,165.8639754.4%216 W · 181 L+26.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+13.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Over48c2,100$1,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,09228447.5%135 W · 149 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5351…9b3cbacked Over48c2,100$1,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,091.921450%7 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Over52c2,000$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96034349.3%169 W · 174 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Over48c2,000$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0407152.1%37 W · 34 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1244…c851backed Over49c2,000$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,02010156.4%57 W · 44 L+7.0wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+14.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over49c1,941$956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$985.191,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over50c1,631$817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$814.4265048.3%314 W · 336 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2c2…4de7backed Over50c1,200$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60022446.4%104 W · 120 L+11.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Over48c1,055$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544.0934652.9%183 W · 163 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x827a…8a2bbacked Over49c1,000$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51015555.5%86 W · 69 L+7.2wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Over50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50026648.9%130 W · 136 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5555…2af1backed Over49c987.64$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.71566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+39.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb8ac…c62dbacked Under51c969.63$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.511637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick40cpaid+4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd51b…9606backed Under52c961.54$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5006738.8%26 W · 41 L-7.8wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-26.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0775…eca8backed Over54c925.93$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.932755.6%15 W · 12 L+4.0wins+0.15per pick41cpaid+39.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x12fe…38cfbacked Under36c875$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.7531540.6%128 W · 187 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4d1…086ebacked Over49c814.29$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.292948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbde…a758backed Over50c760.81$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.424257.1%24 W · 18 L+3.8wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Over51c720.83$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35360049.3%296 W · 304 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xefc9…b337backed Under51c677.25$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.49754.6%53 W · 44 L+9.1wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Under51c639.22$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32617251.7%89 W · 83 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2ca…d984backed Over51c627.34$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.344951%25 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6036…d2ccbacked Over49c613$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.6312151.2%62 W · 59 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe544…3cfcbacked Over49c612.24$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.245550.9%28 W · 27 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb871…9f15backed Over49c600$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3067533.3%25 W · 50 L-8.2wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-27.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0ed4…4547backed Over50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25012445.2%56 W · 68 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8052…1124backed Under52c500$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2606246.8%29 W · 33 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over49c493$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.4377052.7%406 W · 364 L+24.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe21a…88edbacked Under52c432.69$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2253151.6%16 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2123…8d70backed Over49c408.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.1611740.2%47 W · 70 L-10.0wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe727…5e8dbacked Over49c408.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.1617548%84 W · 91 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over48c400$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20818745.5%85 W · 102 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7851…d471backed Under52c400$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20814151.8%73 W · 68 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Over49c400$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20420555.6%114 W · 91 L+15.7wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+17.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd2e5…ebeabacked Over49c389.8$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.819651.5%101 W · 95 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87ae…811bbacked Under52c326.92$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1703158.1%18 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x681d…4cbfbacked Over49c305$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.5517047.1%80 W · 90 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f85…7e17backed Over50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1502035%7 W · 13 L-3.8wins-0.19per pick54cpaid-41.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Over49c300$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15314060.7%85 W · 55 L+14.3wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+23.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Over49c300$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15317656.3%99 W · 77 L+16.3wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+21.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x21ce…5d26backed Over49c300$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.28per pick39cpaid-77.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8eb1…0812backed Under51c299.99$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.23831.6%12 W · 26 L-5.4wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-29.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xee20…5b37backed Over49c289.16$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.557164.8%46 W · 25 L+10.7wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+33.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Over79c269.13$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.0935648%171 W · 185 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed Over49c240$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.411758.1%68 W · 49 L+9.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed Over49c240$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.411859.3%70 W · 48 L+11.2wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+19.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa717…8919backed Under51c205$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.5511047.3%52 W · 58 L-7.4wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-13.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8021…0da8backed Over49c201.02$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.524551.1%23 W · 22 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Over49c200$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1028345.8%38 W · 45 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-14.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x445e…007bbacked Over49c200$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1025156.9%29 W · 22 L+5.1wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+24.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xdf60…f8d5backed Over50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1002560%15 W · 10 L+3.0wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+30.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8333…eb93backed Under47c195$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.652437.5%9 W · 15 L-3.6wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-32.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Under51c193$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.4355345%249 W · 304 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed Over49c180$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.812057.5%69 W · 51 L+9.6wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over49c180$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.816360.1%98 W · 65 L+16.9wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+22.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7602…2775backed Over48c172.75$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.596558.5%38 W · 27 L+6.5wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+20.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa97e…7753backed Over49c150$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.510461.5%64 W · 40 L+12.5wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+25.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9dd6…6202backed Under51c147.06$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756737.3%25 W · 42 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7398…f4b6backed Over49c120$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.26752.2%35 W · 32 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f1f…f56bbacked Over49c120$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.210155.4%56 W · 45 L+6.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf79e…9a84backed Over49c120$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.26147.5%29 W · 32 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x864c…735fbacked Over49c120$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.26755.2%37 W · 30 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Over49c120$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.212356.9%70 W · 53 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0fad…aa0fbacked Over49c120$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.211058.2%64 W · 46 L+11.0wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+19.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa48d…b023backed Over49c120$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.210359.2%61 W · 42 L+9.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+22.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa800…cc71backed Over49c120$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.29659.4%57 W · 39 L+9.2wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+21%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2025…db59backed Over49c120$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.210958.7%64 W · 45 L+9.4wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.