NFL · resolved market
Bears vs. 49ers: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ff689dbdd73191e7bd6ab1643d7a3fad71c46fd88bd4d2c7aba02497846eb15
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 49ersof Bears, 49ers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,345
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,533
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,345 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Bears | 37c | 1,500$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.99 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed 49ers | 64c | 1,213$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.83 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +12.1wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +137.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a9…be15backed 49ers | 71c | 702.62$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.62 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05d7…22c1backed 49ers | 62c | 454.84$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.26 | 40 | 72.5%29 W · 11 L | +6.7wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…5e8dbacked 49ers | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.46 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Bears | 37c | 280.68$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.85 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Bears | 40c | 235.78$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.31 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Bears | 39c | 230$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.47 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f9…e58abacked Bears | 39c | 189.74$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed Bears | 39c | 184$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.76 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Bears | 40c | 148.5$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +6.5wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf9…1abfbacked 49ers | 62c | 118$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.84 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d9…a94bbacked Bears | 39c | 118$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.02 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae28…5d17backed 49ers | 61c | 107$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.86 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked 49ers | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80ac…6ac9backed Bears | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…c71fbacked 49ers | 61c | 98$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa024…4929backed 49ers | 60c | 98$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.7wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Bears | 26c | 87.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f41…5cb3backed 49ers | 60c | 86$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +4.1wins | +0.29per pick | 49cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Bears | 39c | 80$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x68e0…a3a6backed Bears | 39c | 72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…07d8backed 49ers | 62c | 67$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed 49ers | 62c | 64.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.21 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…5526backed Bears | 40c | 58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Bears | 22c | 57.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83b1…cac1backed 49ers | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.33per pick | 55cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Bears | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…af43backed Bears | 40c | 49.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x194f…81b6backed Bears | 39c | 48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf86a…9ed1backed 49ers | 61c | 47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c9…3f9fbacked 49ers | 61c | 46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4844…9c83backed 49ers | 62c | 46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6393…dde9backed 49ers | 61c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14cd…1716backed 49ers | 61c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…d929backed Bears | 39c | 44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d7…f2d1backed 49ers | 61c | 43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…c6ecbacked Bears | 39c | 43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3bec…6997backed 49ers | 62c | 42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5d…be79backed 49ers | 61c | 42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25c3…eb62backed 49ers | 60c | 42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…c8c0backed Bears | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9431…6270backed Bears | 38c | 39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfadc…a4e8backed Bears | 40c | 38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd67a…304cbacked 49ers | 61c | 37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e57…41f0backed Bears | 39c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…ee41backed 49ers | 60c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46ed…cfa6backed 49ers | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 122 | 50%61 W · 61 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc86f…341dbacked 49ers | 61c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf06a…cfdabacked 49ers | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bd…0da6backed 49ers | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a94…31e6backed Bears | 40c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…de52backed 49ers | 61c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b3…0d89backed 49ers | 61c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdb…ae41backed Bears | 39c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…8c58backed 49ers | 61c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…7ca5backed 49ers | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd0…4938backed 49ers | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacc…23c6backed Bears | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed 49ers | 62c | 20.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 124 | 47.6%59 W · 65 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d78…4756backed 49ers | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9430…97cebacked 49ers | 61c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -39%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26fc…2286backed 49ers | 61c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2348…9d10backed 49ers | 60c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43dc…88cfbacked 49ers | 61c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bears vs. 49ers: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: 49ers (-1.5)49ers won
- 1H Spread: 49ers (-2.5)49ers won
- Bears vs. 49ers49ers won
- Bears vs. 49ers: O/U 50.5Over won
- Bears vs. 49ers: O/U 51.5Over won
- Bears vs. 49ers: O/U 52.5Over won
- Bears vs. 49ers: O/U 59.5Over won
- Bears vs. 49ers: O/U 61.5Over won
- Bears vs. 49ers: O/U 62.5Over won
- Bears vs. 49ers: O/U 72.5Over won
- Bears vs. 49ers: O/U 74.5Over won
- Bears vs. 49ers: O/U 75.5Over won
- Bears vs. 49ers: O/U 77.5Over won
- Bears vs. 49ers: O/U 78.5Over won
- Bears vs. 49ers: O/U 79.5Over won
- Bears vs. 49ers: O/U 80.5Under won
- Spread: 49ers (-2.5)49ers won
- Spread: 49ers (-3.5)49ers won
- Spread: 49ers (-6.5)Bears won
- Spread: 49ers (-7.5)Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.