TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

1H Spread: 49ers (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
49ersof 49ers, Bears
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$44,408
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$64,720

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,408 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x07c8…2696backed 49ers59c20,328$12,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,267.665957.6%34 W · 25 L+7.1wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+29.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Bears40c16,173$6,539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,539.0875852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Bears40c1,500$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60519439.2%76 W · 118 L-11.5wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Bears43c1,302$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.8639754.4%216 W · 181 L+26.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+13.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Bears41c780$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.616045%72 W · 88 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f91…20ccbacked Bears45c224$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.82356.5%13 W · 10 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+32.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x363a…b79ebacked Bears45c220$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked Bears42c210.49$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.4115446.8%72 W · 82 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8a3…a380backed Bears44c196$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.241540%6 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x102f…9b6ebacked Bears45c153$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.851241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10f7…26f0backed Bears45c152$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.41747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e32…f244backed Bears45c143$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.351546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4130…a35bbacked Bears45c132$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.42147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb82d…5d1ebacked Bears44c127$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.881533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3ca0…7ebebacked Bears44c124$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.56825%2 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6132…7665backed Bears45c121$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.451650%8 W · 8 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f1c…0dd0backed Bears45c118$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.11643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4dc…d394backed Bears45c113$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.852564%16 W · 9 L+4.0wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+36.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd104…0c60backed 49ers55c109$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.89850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e29…c992backed 49ers56c105$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.58850%4 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc938…af43backed Bears45c104$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.82250%11 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb81d…c6c0backed Bears45c101$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.451435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-34.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Bears43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4365048.3%314 W · 336 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fed…0d78backed Bears45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452050%10 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37bb…c71fbacked Bears45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e75…e81dbacked Bears45c98$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.11136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-29.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x89ad…5e22backed Bears45c98$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.12259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+22%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa49…949ebacked Bears45c94$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.31637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-24.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x49ec…c4e5backed Bears43c91$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.131457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc427…ee41backed Bears44c86$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.81172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.21per pick52cpaid+42.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4970…21f6backed Bears43c82$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.51258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa024…4929backed Bears45c81$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.451968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.7wins+0.19per pick49cpaid+33.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Bears41c78$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9854451.7%281 W · 263 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88d0…524cbacked 49ers55c77$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.65250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64a3…cc70backed Bears45c71$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.95728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.21per pick49cpaid-41.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x699c…3600backed Bears44c69$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.361957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+20.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc0e6…71e4backed Bears45c68$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.61450%7 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7563…1fb3backed Bears45c66$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.71838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-0.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e1a…60e5backed 49ers55c65$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.25875%6 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+40.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x67ec…06aabacked 49ers55c64$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.49666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+35.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc9f6…9cdabacked 49ers55c63$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.35540%2 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick63cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd289…98b5backed 49ers56c63$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.91050%5 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd14…5ab9backed Bears45c59$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.552766.7%18 W · 9 L+4.2wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+32.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4e66…921dbacked Bears43c58$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.941442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-16.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6fe1…e560backed 49ers55c57$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.65785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.32per pick54cpaid+61.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x194f…81b6backed 49ers55c56$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.21070%7 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick50cpaid+36.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x15b7…7fd0backed 49ers55c54$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.21346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x06b1…614cbacked 49ers55c54$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.36100%6 W · 0 L+2.9wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+94.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3be0…e4e5backed 49ers56c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221560%9 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+21.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x25c3…eb62backed 49ers55c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.51070%7 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+26.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf86a…9ed1backed 49ers55c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.5850%4 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Bears42c49.91$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7220944.5%93 W · 116 L+0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa64b…1e4bbacked Bears49c49.18$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-67.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x309d…3a8abacked Bears44c49$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.561844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a4e…e3a4backed 49ers55c49$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.05771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+20.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd43a…f530backed 49ers55c47$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.15862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5956…e127backed 49ers56c47$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.85785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.31per pick55cpaid+59.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x14c2…6070backed 49ers55c46$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.71266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+24.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x470e…07c0backed Bears46c45$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.71758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+19.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf572…065abacked Bears44c45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.81952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0068…d7b0backed 49ers55c45$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.251163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+24.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x08a7…e161backed 49ers55c45$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.251258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2877…dc5bbacked 49ers55c45$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.251250%6 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x68e0…a3a6backed Bears45c44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.81861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+40.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb9ab…8137backed 49ers55c44$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.72650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7219…fcf7backed 49ers56c43$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.031090%9 W · 1 L+3.8wins+0.38per pick52cpaid+91.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1f57…6d41backed 49ers55c41$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.45850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83fc…13ccbacked Bears49c40.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.762138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-18.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7690…92cbbacked 49ers55c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Bears45c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182050%10 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed3f…0ab8backed Bears45c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182634.6%9 W · 17 L-3.4wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-28.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4d49…c438backed 49ers57c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.38850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e71…8913backed 49ers55c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+37.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xca65…6746backed 49ers56c38$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.72862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+40%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd5c…1f57backed 49ers56c37$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.151050%5 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf33d…1969backed 49ers55c37$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.65850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x279b…7d84backed 49ers55c36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.21154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0dcf…4028backed 49ers55c35$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.751338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick54cpaid-29.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d1b…854dbacked 49ers55c34$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.3616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.3wins-0.38per pick55cpaid-69.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0aae…e845backed 49ers56c33$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.671080%8 W · 2 L+2.6wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+50.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7f1a…ad50backed 49ers56c33$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.411050%5 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf57a…a337backed 49ers56c33$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.53450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d19…8b58backed 49ers55c33$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.85757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97de…15eabacked 49ers55c32$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick53cpaid+58.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1313…866abacked 49ers56c32$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.21050%5 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68cc…24adbacked 49ers55c32$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x152c…3b50backed 49ers55c32$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick55cpaid-26.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7bf2…6640backed 49ers55c31$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.951070%7 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick56cpaid+22.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e26…c672backed 49ers55c31$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.95728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick55cpaid-46.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8ef9…b5bfbacked 49ers55c31$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.95757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2614…1000backed 49ers55c31$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.95757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4cdb…ae41backed 49ers56c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.34966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+21.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bbb…1594backed Bears44c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.21741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-15.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa554…e53dbacked 49ers56c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.21258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96ae…89d9backed 49ers55c29$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.051030%3 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.25per pick55cpaid-42.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x143d…5bc4backed 49ers55c29$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.051266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+31.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e57…41f0backed 49ers55c29$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.05966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+16.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e85…d253backed 49ers55c28$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-25.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5931…08cbbacked 49ers55c28$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa46…1559backed 49ers55c28$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.61154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.