NFL · resolved market
Spread: 49ers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87336bc492d49e839f125080ccffbd5ae6487f91775f3c26c9cdc798ab26b5df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 49ersof 49ers, Bears
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $118,740
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $124,083
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $118,740 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1496…a429backed Bears | 41c | 77,300$31,693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,693.16 | 274 | 54.7%150 W · 124 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked 49ers | 59c | 33,140$19,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,587.4 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed 49ers | 59c | 24,250$14,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,905.58 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked 49ers | 59c | 22,209$13,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,038.58 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Bears | 40c | 10,000$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked 49ers | 60c | 8,377$5,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,327.9 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3b…c46bbacked 49ers | 60c | 5,991$3,595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,396.44 | 111 | 45.9%51 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Bears | 39c | 5,837$2,277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,276.53 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x188c…c62bbacked 49ers | 59c | 4,661$2,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,911.02 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Bears | 41c | 2,072$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$845.09 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…8cd6backed Bears | 41c | 2,000$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51b…9606backed 49ers | 59c | 1,695$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.92 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -7.8wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Bears | 40c | 1,500$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed 49ers | 58c | 1,500$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.94 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb74d…9b2abacked Bears | 10c | 1,400$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 11cpaid | +128.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5834…f0cbbacked 49ers | 59c | 1,250$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.5 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…fe28backed Bears | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked Bears | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 148 | 37.2%55 W · 93 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8021…0da8backed Bears | 42c | 938.1$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked 49ers | 65c | 596.02$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.6 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Bears | 40c | 572$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.8 | 266 | 49.6%132 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Bears | 11c | 568.91$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.58 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | +13.9wins | +0.13per pick | 10cpaid | +428.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Bears | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 54 | 9.3%5 W · 49 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x611a…e63ebacked Bears | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Bears | 39c | 481.36$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.28 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24da…9561backed Bears | 38c | 442.69$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.22 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee7e…61bbbacked 49ers | 59c | 440.68$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.68 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Bears | 39c | 399.99$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe02f…669fbacked Bears | 5c | 350$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Bears | 41c | 349.64$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.17 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9827…6c61backed Bears | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed 49ers | 60c | 294.5$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.81 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d7…22c1backed 49ers | 59c | 254.24$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.24 | 40 | 72.5%29 W · 11 L | +6.7wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…b17abacked 49ers | 59c | 250$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.5 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ce…5d26backed Bears | 42c | 230$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.6 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 39cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Bears | 40c | 228.67$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.47 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed 49ers | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Bears | 41c | 173.87$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.29 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +6.5wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed 49ers | 61c | 165$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.35 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed 49ers | 60c | 144.75$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.57 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed 49ers | 60c | 112$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Bears | 31c | 106.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b33…8c31backed Bears | 42c | 104.52$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77ff…4ddebacked 49ers | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…b2d7backed 49ers | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed 49ers | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c36…67cdbacked Bears | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8013…5b52backed Bears | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed 49ers | 57c | 98.6$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.93 | 294 | 39.5%116 W · 178 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6e…6a74backed 49ers | 63c | 79.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.84 | 121 | 48.8%59 W · 62 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84f0…327cbacked Bears | 39c | 79$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf492…29c2backed Bears | 42c | 75.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 102 | 52.9%54 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Bears | 41c | 73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f8…79a8backed Bears | 41c | 72.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 102 | 56.9%58 W · 44 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed 49ers | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Bears | 24c | 55.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 148 | 44.6%66 W · 82 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Bears | 37c | 49.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 246 | 52%128 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…cd5dbacked 49ers | 58c | 48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Bears | 40c | 47.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 149 | 52.3%78 W · 71 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked 49ers | 66c | 42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed 49ers | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 320 | 43.8%140 W · 180 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…2783backed Bears | 39c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 124 | 59.7%74 W · 50 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea3…aa4dbacked Bears | 42c | 38.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Bears | 42c | 34.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 206 | 50.5%104 W · 102 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a59…e94cbacked 49ers | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc840…0650backed 49ers | 60c | 30.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…eb97backed 49ers | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3b…bd9fbacked 49ers | 59c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked 49ers | 59c | 20.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 199 | 54.8%109 W · 90 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa554…e53dbacked 49ers | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…667fbacked 49ers | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x512f…6a7ebacked 49ers | 59c | 18.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +6.2wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bd…2bf8backed 49ers | 59c | 17.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: 49ers (-2.5)this page
- 1H Spread: 49ers (-1.5)49ers won
- 1H Spread: 49ers (-2.5)49ers won
- Bears vs. 49ers49ers won
- Bears vs. 49ers: 1H Moneyline49ers won
- Bears vs. 49ers: O/U 50.5Over won
- Bears vs. 49ers: O/U 51.5Over won
- Bears vs. 49ers: O/U 52.5Over won
- Bears vs. 49ers: O/U 59.5Over won
- Bears vs. 49ers: O/U 61.5Over won
- Bears vs. 49ers: O/U 62.5Over won
- Bears vs. 49ers: O/U 72.5Over won
- Bears vs. 49ers: O/U 74.5Over won
- Bears vs. 49ers: O/U 75.5Over won
- Bears vs. 49ers: O/U 77.5Over won
- Bears vs. 49ers: O/U 78.5Over won
- Bears vs. 49ers: O/U 79.5Over won
- Bears vs. 49ers: O/U 80.5Under won
- Spread: 49ers (-3.5)49ers won
- Spread: 49ers (-6.5)Bears won
- Spread: 49ers (-7.5)Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.