NFL · resolved market
Lions vs. Bears
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f1d9ad2092d7a2feb4f10509f3c5800298f071e9272e87c41a5a672d3b0ba82
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lionsof Lions, Bears
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,519,110
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,575,687
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,519,110 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 738 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x31c5…ede4backed Lions | 35c | 213,748$75,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138,698.72 | 165 | 45.5%75 W · 90 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5350…2fdabacked Bears | 61c | 155,424$95,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95,561.39 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Bears | 62c | 87,172$53,986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53,985.64 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc257…358ebacked Lions | 39c | 72,735$28,367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44,368.43 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a3…0848backed Bears | 61c | 62,216$37,658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37,658 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Bears | 65c | 49,615$32,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,249.75 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Lions | 39c | 47,390$18,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,964.6 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Lions | 35c | 42,946$15,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,914.65 | 168 | 36.9%62 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Bears | 65c | 40,000$26,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,000 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Lions | 39c | 30,585$11,912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,673.56 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84db…aeebbacked Bears | 65c | 29,335$19,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,067.45 | 115 | 44.3%51 W · 64 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Lions | 38c | 25,000$9,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,500 | 246 | 52%128 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Lions | 68c | 24,447$16,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,727.93 | 169 | 55%93 W · 76 L | +15.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3b…10eebacked Lions | 37c | 22,988$8,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,482.81 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cb…d096backed Lions | 53c | 21,643$11,563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,080.1 | 116 | 43.1%50 W · 66 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d19…733abacked Lions | 72c | 20,062$14,534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,527.1 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5da4…e203backed Bears | 42c | 20,000$8,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,399.99 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Lions | 41c | 18,617$7,549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,067.93 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d0…9391backed Bears | 64c | 17,944$11,484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,484.15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…e675backed Lions | 48c | 17,767$8,457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,310.22 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed Bears | 31c | 17,598$5,461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,461.26 | 143 | 49%70 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Lions | 49c | 14,052$6,846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,206.3 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Bears | 63c | 13,778$8,716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,716.01 | 318 | 54.7%174 W · 144 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bd…b539backed Lions | 36c | 13,695$4,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,714.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +192.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3b…c46bbacked Bears | 65c | 13,166$8,558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,557.73 | 111 | 45.9%51 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…30a1backed Bears | 65c | 12,870$8,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,359.45 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Lions | 57c | 12,640$7,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,372.79 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23c8…f293backed Bears | 62c | 12,400$7,749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,748.8 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.32per pick | 55cpaid | +75.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x83ab…3d56backed Bears | 63c | 12,000$7,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,599.97 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Bears | 16c | 11,731$1,894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,894.23 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c9…0d9ebacked Bears | 60c | 10,304$6,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,196.4 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Bears | 59c | 10,021$5,911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,911.35 | 239 | 37.7%90 W · 149 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a38…8fb5backed Bears | 62c | 10,000$6,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,200 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Bears | 63c | 10,000$6,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,300 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Bears | 63c | 10,000$6,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,300 | 240 | 56.7%136 W · 104 L | +19.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Bears | 9c | 9,682$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$848.19 | 192 | 35.4%68 W · 124 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf77…bae9backed Bears | 57c | 9,430$5,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,356 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -4.3wins | -0.43per pick | 53cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Lions | 50c | 9,412$4,735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,677.02 | 232 | 44.4%103 W · 129 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Lions | 35c | 9,000$3,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,850 | 265 | 47.2%125 W · 140 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Lions | 58c | 8,964$5,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,808.3 | 273 | 48.7%133 W · 140 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe194…cd47backed Bears | 66c | 8,893$5,829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,829.19 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf569…36a6backed Lions | 45c | 8,795$3,934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,861.45 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa04e…376abacked Bears | 65c | 8,328$5,413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,413.06 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 56cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe948…ff23backed Bears | 66c | 8,042$5,307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,306.67 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x881b…9893backed Bears | 52c | 8,036$4,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,152.14 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Bears | 64c | 7,438$4,749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,748.65 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9e…a250backed Lions | 35c | 7,200$2,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,680 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa996…8aacbacked Bears | 65c | 7,193$4,676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,675.67 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x447e…9710backed Bears | 60c | 7,094$4,278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,278 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.25per pick | 49cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Bears | 17c | 6,430$1,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,096.02 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe916…4563backed Bears | 63c | 6,349$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 69 | 65.2%45 W · 24 L | +9.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Bears | 64c | 6,292$4,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,026.75 | 195 | 53.8%105 W · 90 L | +16.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82ba…0a52backed Bears | 64c | 6,000$3,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,840 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b71…a995backed Bears | 64c | 5,721$3,661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,661.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8e…acb5backed Lions | 36c | 5,699$2,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,647.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 43cpaid | +140.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…5d08backed Lions | 40c | 5,505$2,202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,302.79 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Lions | 62c | 5,497$3,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,099.56 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Bears | 46c | 5,465$2,532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,531.83 | 276 | 44.2%122 W · 154 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfecb…19babacked Bears | 41c | 5,303$2,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,179.13 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…f5b6backed Lions | 61c | 5,009$3,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,928.78 | 123 | 43.1%53 W · 70 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x699f…d5c6backed Bears | 64c | 5,003$3,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,201.63 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf70…5e92backed Lions | 42c | 5,000$2,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,904.73 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…37efbacked Lions | 59c | 5,000$2,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,050 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Bears | 63c | 5,000$3,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,136.7 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed57…99a3backed Bears | 55c | 4,919$2,683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,682.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd776…ffebbacked Lions | 40c | 4,900$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,940 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0886backed Bears | 37c | 4,798$1,783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,782.8 | 151 | 32.5%49 W · 102 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc9…6786backed Bears | 64c | 4,688$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +29%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Bears | 64c | 4,627$2,954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,954.3 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56be…57eebacked Lions | 57c | 4,231$2,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,800.3 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Lions | 38c | 4,213$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,613.44 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…0566backed Lions | 61c | 4,188$2,554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,633.89 | 162 | 54.9%89 W · 73 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a55…394ebacked Bears | 46c | 4,000$1,841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,841.4 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…2a44backed Bears | 64c | 4,000$2,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,560 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Lions | 35c | 4,000$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,599.99 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Lions | 56c | 3,927$2,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,716.89 | 238 | 50.8%121 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef26…05babacked Lions | 57c | 3,900$2,214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,685.65 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Lions | 35c | 3,841$1,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,510.58 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Lions | 63c | 3,827$2,398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,429.49 | 315 | 43.2%136 W · 179 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca21…b07cbacked Lions | 60c | 3,700$2,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,472.35 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a14…fddabacked Bears | 56c | 3,601$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3158…d469backed Lions | 38c | 3,600$1,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,231.97 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bears | 63c | 3,344$2,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,119.14 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15a6…bf5dbacked Lions | 74c | 3,295$2,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843.83 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +6.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x65cd…1e0bbacked Bears | 47c | 3,260$1,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,521.64 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb83a…6bfcbacked Bears | 60c | 3,145$1,885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,885 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +34%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Bears | 44c | 3,017$1,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,334.62 | 300 | 43.7%131 W · 169 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Lions | 36c | 3,000$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,920 | 122 | 50%61 W · 61 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Bears | 63c | 2,775$1,749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,749 | 284 | 47.5%135 W · 149 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a82…c113backed Lions | 72c | 2,766$1,989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$776.67 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x710c…892cbacked Bears | 64c | 2,744$1,756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,756 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7234…1d85backed Lions | 41c | 2,683$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,582.89 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Bears | 50c | 2,596$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7990…c870backed Bears | 62c | 2,581$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc11d…0299backed Lions | 78c | 2,464$1,915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.45 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 72cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Bears | 1c | 2,444$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 431 | 1.6%7 W · 424 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309f…9282backed Lions | 59c | 2,198$1,297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$901.31 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Bears | 65c | 2,193$1,417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,416.88 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6368…6dc8backed Bears | 23c | 2,173$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.8 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf00b…517cbacked Bears | 21c | 2,165$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.54 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lions vs. Bearsthis page
- Lions vs. Bears: 1H MoneylineLions won
- Lions vs. Bears: O/U 49.5Under won
- Lions vs. Bears: O/U 50.5Under won
- Lions vs. Bears: O/U 51.5Under won
- Spread: Bears (-1.5)Lions won
- Spread: Bears (-2.5)Lions won
- Spread: Bears (-3.5)Lions won
- Spread: Bears (-4.5)Lions won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.