NFL · resolved market

Spread: Bears (-2.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ea8244f7a068d5365c6671118a663de29c0952cc1c8f9d2f0fc9e1b97a00c17

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Lionsof Bears, Lions
Resolved: Jan 4, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $90,138
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $89,944

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,138 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NFL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x16b2…a881backed Lions	39c	56,568$22,103 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34,465.69	865	47.9%414 W · 451 L	-6.6wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed Bears	61c	48,986$29,881 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29,881.48	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	+1.4wins	+0.13per pick	51cpaid	+27.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed Bears	61c	10,322$6,248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,247.6	195	53.8%105 W · 90 L	+16.1wins	+0.08per pick	46cpaid	+23.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Lions	38c	10,089$3,863 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,225.28	1,196	49.9%597 W · 599 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Bears	63c	9,492$5,980 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,980	51	49%25 W · 26 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x83ab…3d56backed Bears	60c	4,000$2,400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,400	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24d8…e8a8backed Lions	40c	2,840$1,134 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,706.24	35	65.7%23 W · 12 L	+5.2wins	+0.15per pick	51cpaid	+29.9%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Lions	43c	2,789$1,204 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,584.97	650	48.3%314 W · 336 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Lions	39c	2,000$770 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,229.98	195	43.6%85 W · 110 L	-3.5wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Lions	38c	1,467$555 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$911.68	394	47.7%188 W · 206 L	-7.3wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Lions	41c	1,342$549 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$793.23	758	52.5%398 W · 360 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Bears	61c	1,110$674 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$674.38	544	51.7%281 W · 263 L	+7.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa613…d494backed Bears	57c	1,032$588 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$588.28	88	56.8%50 W · 38 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7851…d471backed Bears	58c	1,000$580 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$580	141	51.8%73 W · 68 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Lions	37c	975$361 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$614.25	1,065	51.3%546 W · 519 L	+25.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ed4…4547backed Bears	62c	908.55$563 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$563.06	124	45.2%56 W · 68 L	-5.3wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Lions	42c	903$379 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$523.74	94	47.9%45 W · 49 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Lions	40c	869.17$352 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$517.64	532	53%282 W · 250 L	+19.1wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Lions	38c	500$190 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$310	276	33.3%92 W · 184 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Lions	42c	464$195 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$269.12	187	45.5%85 W · 102 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Lions	46c	416.16$190 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$226.41	81	64.2%52 W · 29 L	+12.1wins	+0.15per pick	49cpaid	+137.5%equal weight	63+0.11 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Bears	61c	400$244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$244	266	48.9%130 W · 136 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc4d…f0b8backed Bears	54c	350$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189	134	48.5%65 W · 69 L	-9.4wins	-0.07per pick	56cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa408…d831backed Bears	61c	327.87$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	53	47.2%25 W · 28 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Bears	13c	327.2$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.01	502	42.4%213 W · 289 L	-5.6wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x740b…1d47backed Bears	62c	322.58$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	105	48.6%51 W · 54 L	-4.2wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x42c1…e644backed Bears	61c	300$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.11per pick	61cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9754…2162backed Bears	60c	247.21$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.65	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.8wins	-0.58per pick	58cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8fdd…23d8backed Bears	61c	244.88$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.53	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+1.6wins	+0.20per pick	55cpaid	+38.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa774…005fbacked Bears	59c	230$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.95	47	48.9%23 W · 24 L	-2.2wins	-0.05per pick	54cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb43…9d70backed Lions	45c	224.62$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$124.62	117	44.4%52 W · 65 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83c8…26f0backed Bears	17c	200$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.4	30	13.3%4 W · 26 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+39.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x036a…4c9abacked Bears	55c	169.09$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93	56	48.2%27 W · 29 L	-2.3wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe02f…669fbacked Bears	17c	150$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.8	49	20.4%10 W · 39 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Lions	39c	114.83$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.78	209	44.5%93 W · 116 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x60ad…fdcebacked Bears	61c	113.66$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.33	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-2.8wins	-0.40per pick	55cpaid	-73%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Lions	44c	105$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.8	553	45%249 W · 304 L	-9.0wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc29d…3352backed Bears	32c	103.13$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	25	56%14 W · 11 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	58cpaid	-11%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2d9…0092backed Bears	61c	102.44$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.49	62	46.8%29 W · 33 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f6…bd06backed Bears	54c	101.85$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.4wins	-0.24per pick	57cpaid	-48.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x57b9…e9b4backed Bears	59c	101.69$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	105	47.6%50 W · 55 L	-3.4wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd53e…e70cbacked Bears	61c	100.89$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.54	66	47%31 W · 35 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50ba…5435backed Bears	60c	100$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	51	58.8%30 W · 21 L	+5.6wins	+0.11per pick	48cpaid	+30.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe6f0…5701backed Bears	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	49	44.9%22 W · 27 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…f17abacked Bears	17c	100$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.3	49	14.3%7 W · 42 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0fe6…2f03backed Bears	61c	96.89$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.1	14	50%7 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x650b…ebc3backed Bears	62c	96.77$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.29per pick	62cpaid	-52.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x206a…e438backed Bears	62c	92.59$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.12	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-2.0wins	-0.17per pick	50cpaid	-41.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6666…c652backed Bears	62c	90.32$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.5wins	+0.22per pick	50cpaid	+52.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa535…dffcbacked Bears	61c	90.16$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	49	42.9%21 W · 28 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x87ae…811bbacked Bears	57c	87.72$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	31	58.1%18 W · 13 L	+1.9wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x83fd…cad0backed Bears	61c	87.12$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.14	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.53per pick	53cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x15f9…607ebacked Bears	60c	84$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.4	31	48.4%15 W · 16 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Bears	52c	82.35$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.53	148	44.6%66 W · 82 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Lions	75c	81.27$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.03	294	39.5%116 W · 178 L	-6.4wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0ff…4085backed Bears	61c	79.03$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.21	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.16per pick	56cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1540…04e9backed Lions	40c	77.43$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.46	28	53.6%15 W · 13 L	+1.4wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3bd…2bf8backed Bears	61c	71.57$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.66	45	40%18 W · 27 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Lions	39c	70.72$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.45	320	43.8%140 W · 180 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Lions	46c	64.52$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.84	346	52.9%183 W · 163 L	+16.0wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd2a2…004abacked Lions	39c	59.99$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.59	115	52.2%60 W · 55 L	+2.4wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a87…fb21backed Lions	40c	56$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.6	203	54.7%111 W · 92 L	+11.9wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf672…c3c4backed Bears	63c	55.56$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	28	42.9%12 W · 16 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ebb…11a7backed Bears	54c	55.56$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.54per pick	54cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Lions	41c	54.89$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.16	163	49.7%81 W · 82 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a5c…b3f2backed Lions	40c	53.14$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.95	55	56.4%31 W · 24 L	+3.6wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3888…0755backed Lions	39c	51.28$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.28	98	55.1%54 W · 44 L	+5.0wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+12.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Lions	50c	49.43$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.5	342	47.4%162 W · 180 L	-4.9wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Bears	51c	49.12$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	149	52.3%78 W · 71 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Lions	42c	48$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.68	363	41.9%152 W · 211 L	-13.5wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Bears	31c	46.81$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.43	134	49.3%66 W · 68 L	+4.8wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Bears	56c	45$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.2	533	48.4%258 W · 275 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Lions	50c	44$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.9	736	51.2%377 W · 359 L	+25.9wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Lions	44c	40$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.4	127	56.7%72 W · 55 L	+8.4wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+15.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8396…0de1backed Lions	39c	35$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.35	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.1wins	+0.56per pick	44cpaid	+130.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe80…dad1backed Bears	61c	32.79$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-1.4wins	-0.11per pick	53cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfdc6…b20dbacked Bears	59c	30$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.7	153	53.6%82 W · 71 L	+5.3wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Lions	41c	30$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.7	160	45%72 W · 88 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a88…2bffbacked Bears	59c	30$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.7	42	59.5%25 W · 17 L	+3.1wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+15.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3da1…c13bbacked Bears	58c	30$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.4	94	56.4%53 W · 41 L	+3.0wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x56d2…7afcbacked Bears	62c	25.89$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Bears	61c	25.8$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.74	165	51.5%85 W · 80 L	+9.5wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+15.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6de0…af02backed Bears	61c	24.6$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.02	14	50%7 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x196a…f34fbacked Bears	61c	24.59$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	30	33.3%10 W · 20 L	-4.1wins	-0.14per pick	47cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0xbc44…3b40backed Lions	50c	21$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.5	18	77.8%14 W · 4 L	+5.1wins	+0.29per pick	49cpaid	+51.3%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Bears (-2.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event