NFL · resolved market

Spread: Bears (-4.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x634ff8077c5478a82be65c3d5d3b75024bff795b2479ec2aae471b617d7efae5

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Lionsof Bears, Lions
Resolved: Jan 4, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $95,158
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $95,590

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,158 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NFL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0d3b…c46bbacked Lions	56c	79,595$44,277 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35,317.08	111	45.9%51 W · 60 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Bears	44c	41,948$18,457 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18,456.94	865	47.9%414 W · 451 L	-6.6wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45d5…47efbacked Bears	45c	17,464$7,830 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,829.87	26	26.9%7 W · 19 L	-5.4wins	-0.21per pick	48cpaid	-48%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Bears	45c	10,000$4,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,500	240	56.7%136 W · 104 L	+19.3wins	+0.08per pick	49cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x226b…cad6backed Bears	49c	5,005$2,452 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,452.34	239	37.7%90 W · 149 L	-9.3wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Bears	44c	5,000$2,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,200	358	48.6%174 W · 184 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Bears	45c	5,000$2,250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,250	544	51.7%281 W · 263 L	+7.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Lions	52c	5,000$2,600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,400	240	53.8%129 W · 111 L	+9.1wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+26.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Bears	48c	4,792$2,300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,300	568	52.3%297 W · 271 L	+26.3wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Lions	51c	3,033$1,547 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,486	249	57%142 W · 107 L	+12.6wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Lions	51c	3,000$1,530 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,470	94	47.9%45 W · 49 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Bears	49c	2,000$980 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$980	284	47.5%135 W · 149 L	-5.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bears	47c	1,532$727 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$726.65	1,196	49.9%597 W · 599 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Lions	51c	1,170$597 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$573.45	64	51.6%33 W · 31 L	+3.1wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Lions	51c	800$408 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$392	266	48.9%130 W · 136 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bf3…6077backed Lions	53c	500$265 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$235	59	39%23 W · 36 L	-6.1wins	-0.10per pick	49cpaid	-24.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa313…e124backed Lions	58c	349.93$203 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$146.97	166	48.2%80 W · 86 L	+3.0wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2000…df78backed Bears	47c	310$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.4	208	51%106 W · 102 L	+12.1wins	+0.06per pick	45cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3fbc…9cf6backed Bears	48c	208.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	75	50.7%38 W · 37 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd25c…2bdcbacked Lions	54c	92.39$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.54	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-2.7wins	-0.22per pick	56cpaid	-46%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6d72…c356backed Bears	50c	60$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	28	25%7 W · 21 L	-4.8wins	-0.17per pick	42cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9fbd…3d15backed Bears	42c	55.6$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.35	83	49.4%41 W · 42 L	+5.0wins	+0.06per pick	43cpaid	+16.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4546…c148backed Bears	44c	51.98$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.87	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-3.5wins	-0.32per pick	50cpaid	-61.7%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Bears	46c	50$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	58	51.7%30 W · 28 L	+3.7wins	+0.06per pick	45cpaid	+22.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa60d…2204backed Bears	44c	47.73$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	19	52.6%10 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2b9e…0db0backed Bears	44c	45.45$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	37	45.9%17 W · 20 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f2a…700fbacked Bears	49c	44.9$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	14	50%7 W · 7 L	-1.1wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Lions	54c	43.44$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.98	758	52.5%398 W · 360 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a5c…b3f2backed Bears	44c	41.52$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.27	55	56.4%31 W · 24 L	+3.6wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbda3…ef65backed Lions	56c	40$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.6	137	51.8%71 W · 66 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1540…04e9backed Bears	44c	37.82$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.64	28	53.6%15 W · 13 L	+1.4wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a88…2bffbacked Bears	44c	37$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.28	42	59.5%25 W · 17 L	+3.1wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+15.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x99ab…d706backed Lions	55c	36.36$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.36	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-3.2wins	-0.19per pick	54cpaid	-31%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Bears (-4.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event