NFL · resolved market

Spread: Bears (-3.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabc90b8a4712e2f1be5d05f1194ee333ec980798ca645e50d4b226ad18af7d36

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Lionsof Bears, Lions
Resolved: Jan 4, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $473,567
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $480,496

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $473,567 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 157 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NFL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x16b2…a881backed Lions	47c	136,964$64,371 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72,592.52	865	47.9%414 W · 451 L	-6.6wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d3b…c46bbacked Bears	53c	69,019$36,580 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36,580.3	111	45.9%51 W · 60 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb889…a430backed Bears	48c	60,000$28,800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28,800	38	50%19 W · 19 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9249…4f16backed Lions	49c	50,000$24,300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25,700	176	47.7%84 W · 92 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a88…41ccbacked Lions	53c	47,419$25,355 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22,064.93	44	40.9%18 W · 26 L	-2.5wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	-24.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c16…09cbbacked Lions	52c	35,358$18,386 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16,971.72	49	55.1%27 W · 22 L	+2.9wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Bears	47c	34,530$16,254 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16,253.92	473	48.4%229 W · 244 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Bears	51c	33,770$17,223 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17,222.83	758	52.5%398 W · 360 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f1a…6dc0backed Bears	47c	20,000$9,443 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,442.82	70	51.4%36 W · 34 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb2f…eca9backed Lions	49c	20,000$9,800 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,200	173	48%83 W · 90 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Bears	52c	19,960$10,379 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,379.19	160	51.9%83 W · 77 L	+5.2wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bears	50c	16,581$8,295 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,294.58	1,196	49.9%597 W · 599 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed Bears	48c	15,519$7,449 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,449.25	195	53.8%105 W · 90 L	+16.1wins	+0.08per pick	46cpaid	+23.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Bears	51c	12,500$6,375 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,375	831	47.8%397 W · 434 L	+13.7wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Lions	48c	11,746$5,638 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,107.76	64	51.6%33 W · 31 L	+3.1wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Lions	52c	9,075$4,712 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,362.86	265	47.2%125 W · 140 L	+10.4wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Bears	52c	8,000$4,160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,160	257	44.4%114 W · 143 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1a38…8fb5backed Bears	47c	6,383$3,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,000	142	52.1%74 W · 68 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b90…2194backed Lions	51c	6,000$3,060 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,940	32	53.1%17 W · 15 L	+2.9wins	+0.09per pick	44cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x07fc…7ac6backed Bears	48c	4,300$2,064 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,064	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.27per pick	52cpaid	-51%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4db0…d3eabacked Bears	53c	4,200$2,226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,226	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-2.1wins	-0.21per pick	51cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x83ab…3d56backed Bears	52c	4,000$2,080 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,080	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4124…8af2backed Bears	54c	3,180$1,717 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,717.2	39	43.6%17 W · 22 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Lions	48c	3,125$1,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,625	186	50%93 W · 93 L	+9.3wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Lions	47c	3,000$1,410 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,589.99	152	52.6%80 W · 72 L	+4.2wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Bears	1c	2,999$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.56	45	55.6%25 W · 20 L	+5.9wins	+0.13per pick	42cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Bears	48c	2,638$1,266 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,266.37	544	51.7%281 W · 263 L	+7.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Bears	47c	2,500$1,175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,174.99	192	40.1%77 W · 115 L	-16.2wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Bears	53c	2,468$1,308 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,308.04	94	47.9%45 W · 49 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8d7…c17bbacked Lions	53c	2,400$1,272 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,127.99	117	59.8%70 W · 47 L	+8.0wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbe5f…d795backed Bears	47c	2,000$940 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$940	114	52.6%60 W · 54 L	+3.8wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Bears	47c	2,000$940 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$940	71	52.1%37 W · 34 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Lions	48c	2,000$960 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,040	129	44.2%57 W · 72 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Bears	47c	1,990$942 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$942.31	146	41.8%61 W · 85 L	-10.9wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Lions	51c	1,938$989 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$948.93	650	48.3%314 W · 336 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x226b…cad6backed Bears	49c	1,705$835 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$835.33	239	37.7%90 W · 149 L	-9.3wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Bears	50c	1,307$658 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$658.33	394	47.7%188 W · 206 L	-7.3wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Lions	52c	1,000$520 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$480	57	54.4%31 W · 26 L	+4.4wins	+0.08per pick	47cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7da6…4ff3backed Lions	47c	1,000$470 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$530	75	34.7%26 W · 49 L	-9.1wins	-0.12per pick	47cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4b5f…1ae6backed Lions	51c	1,000$510 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$490	43	41.9%18 W · 25 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Bears	40c	842.43$341 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$341	736	51.2%377 W · 359 L	+25.9wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd95c…f1d7backed Lions	59c	801.02$472 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$328.87	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.7wins	+0.10per pick	48cpaid	+24.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf08…9f3fbacked Bears	53c	754.72$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	80	56.3%45 W · 35 L	+3.1wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x710c…892cbacked Bears	49c	747.41$366 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$366.23	12	50%6 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39c6…0ac1backed Bears	51c	706.55$358 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$358	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	-2.1wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc092…0cd9backed Bears	50c	666.12$335 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$335	59	49.2%29 W · 30 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcea6…67adbacked Bears	48c	625$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	65	49.2%32 W · 33 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Bears	51c	614.01$313 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$313.14	532	53%282 W · 250 L	+19.1wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x24d8…e8a8backed Bears	51c	600$303 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$303	35	65.7%23 W · 12 L	+5.2wins	+0.15per pick	51cpaid	+29.9%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Bears	53c	500$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265	83	45.8%38 W · 45 L	-5.6wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Lions	50c	500$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$250	187	45.5%85 W · 102 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x68db…e12bbacked Lions	50c	500$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$250	134	35.8%48 W · 86 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Bears	51c	499.99$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$254.99	67	59.7%40 W · 27 L	+5.5wins	+0.08per pick	52cpaid	+19.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Bears	48c	416.67$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	221	42.1%93 W · 128 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f99…c209backed Lions	49c	408.16$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$208.16	30	56.7%17 W · 13 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	58cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb871…9f15backed Bears	48c	400$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192	75	33.3%25 W · 50 L	-8.2wins	-0.11per pick	44cpaid	-27.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x43d7…dca3backed Lions	54c	370.37$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$170.37	67	55.2%37 W · 30 L	+3.4wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xff32…5f58backed Bears	49c	306.12$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	+38.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb04…3ce1backed Bears	53c	264.15$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	26	57.7%15 W · 11 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c9b…a556backed Bears	51c	254.9$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	39	46.2%18 W · 21 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa408…d831backed Bears	49c	250.24$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.62	53	47.2%25 W · 28 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed Bears	51c	250$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.5	206	32%66 W · 140 L	-10.8wins	-0.05per pick	37cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked Bears	50c	244$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122	67	56.7%38 W · 29 L	+4.5wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xee21…3721backed Bears	52c	230$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.6	29	41.4%12 W · 17 L	-3.2wins	-0.11per pick	53cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf36f…fb15backed Bears	47c	212.77$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	86	50%43 W · 43 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4c03…f8bebacked Lions	53c	212.76$113 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	194	59.3%115 W · 79 L	+15.6wins	+0.08per pick	51cpaid	+15.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x15f9…607ebacked Bears	48c	210$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.8	31	48.4%15 W · 16 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xde77…6351backed Lions	51c	209$107 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102.41	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.0wins	+0.24per pick	51cpaid	+46.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x612a…a940backed Bears	50c	209$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.5	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.17per pick	51cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39c9…1dafbacked Lions	51c	206$105 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100.94	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.15per pick	51cpaid	+30.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeba5…6ff7backed Bears	50c	206$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.5wins	+0.29per pick	51cpaid	+56.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5cfd…ca1bbacked Lions	49c	204.08$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.08	51	49%25 W · 26 L	-2.9wins	-0.06per pick	55cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf020…70e2backed Bears	50c	202$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa88…b48bbacked Lions	51c	202$103 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98.98	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.16per pick	51cpaid	+30.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc624…446fbacked Bears	50c	201$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.5	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.51per pick	51cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2528…a7d1backed Lions	51c	201$103 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98.49	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.0wins	+0.49per pick	51cpaid	+96.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Bears	52c	200$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	138	44.9%62 W · 76 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9907…f0e6backed Bears	51c	199$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.49	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.10per pick	50cpaid	+21.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41dc…7ca9backed Lions	51c	199$101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$97.51	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ff9…ce7abacked Bears	52c	192.31$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	116	50.9%59 W · 57 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Lions	47c	191.49$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$101.49	280	47.5%133 W · 147 L	-5.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85c2…9730backed Lions	54c	185.19$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.19	96	51%49 W · 47 L	+7.2wins	+0.08per pick	43cpaid	+21.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbb43…9d70backed Lions	54c	185.19$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.19	117	44.4%52 W · 65 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe727…5e8dbacked Lions	54c	185.19$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.19	175	48%84 W · 91 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa5dc…ec43backed Bears	51c	182.11$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.38	153	52.3%80 W · 73 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6da…235ebacked Lions	51c	180$92 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.2	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.4wins	+0.29per pick	51cpaid	+56.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5dc1…aa8bbacked Bears	50c	180$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.25per pick	50cpaid	-51%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2d9…0092backed Bears	49c	150.49$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.74	62	46.8%29 W · 33 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd53e…e70cbacked Bears	49c	148.22$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.63	66	47%31 W · 35 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc46…1203backed Bears	52c	145.63$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.73	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a87…fb21backed Lions	47c	144$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76.32	203	54.7%111 W · 92 L	+11.9wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x57b9…e9b4backed Bears	49c	142.86$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	105	47.6%50 W · 55 L	-3.4wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a5c…b3f2backed Lions	48c	125.67$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.35	55	56.4%31 W · 24 L	+3.6wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Bears	22c	125.02$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.72	134	49.3%66 W · 68 L	+4.8wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3888…0755backed Lions	48c	125$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65	98	55.1%54 W · 44 L	+5.0wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+12.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x32eb…0c1bbacked Bears	48c	125$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	24	62.5%15 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	63cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x15e3…b3e8backed Bears	49c	122.45$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	86	44.2%38 W · 48 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Bears	51c	120$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.2	123	56.9%70 W · 53 L	+6.8wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x021a…b2d7backed Bears	51c	117.65$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	96	41.7%40 W · 56 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa535…dffcbacked Bears	49c	112.24$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	49	42.9%21 W · 28 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Bears (-3.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event