NFL · resolved market
Lions vs. Bears: O/U 50.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc329712dda3a953d22d0e07be5bd1ea39ce65bc1d67330b53c2b31f25e588106
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,735
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,847
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,735 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Over | 52c | 25,000$13,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,000 | 168 | 60.7%102 W · 66 L | +18.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 48c | 20,789$9,979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,810.28 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…cd5dbacked Under | 77c | 3,975$3,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$932.55 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Over | 2c | 3,000$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +5.9wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 48c | 2,917$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,516.67 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 2,047$962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,085 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 4c | 1,527$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.31 | 315 | 43.2%136 W · 179 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 46c | 1,278$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.86 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5f…d795backed Over | 52c | 1,192$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.8 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed Over | 54c | 800$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73a9…c189backed Over | 54c | 800$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 48c | 769$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.88 | 314 | 50%157 W · 157 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 20c | 731.14$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.72 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Over | 53c | 678$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.12 | 202 | 38.6%78 W · 124 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Under | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 315 | 40.6%128 W · 187 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0c…b6bdbacked Over | 16c | 481.67$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 53c | 405$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.65 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…f8bebacked Over | 50c | 388$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 194 | 59.3%115 W · 79 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Under | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Over | 7c | 295$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a45…41f6backed Over | 55c | 254.55$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 41c | 241.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.03 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 12c | 236.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 5c | 224.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 356 | 48%171 W · 185 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 47c | 221.27$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.27 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…298cbacked Under | 47c | 213.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.99 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…aa74backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…d3e4backed Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf98f…e563backed Over | 51c | 188$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf11c…654fbacked Under | 50c | 188$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 10c | 183.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 294 | 39.5%116 W · 178 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe64…873ebacked Under | 51c | 150$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b7…fa4bbacked Over | 53c | 147.26$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.05 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99fe…b61cbacked Over | 53c | 120$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.6 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 65c | 117$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.5 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Under | 49c | 102.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.43 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…5a08backed Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Under | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 158 | 51.9%82 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x754d…893bbacked Under | 52c | 98$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 47c | 95.79$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.78 | 209 | 44.5%93 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe36b…095dbacked Over | 51c | 94.12$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +65%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…7c7ebacked Over | 52c | 57.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 153 | 53.6%82 W · 71 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…1dbebacked Over | 55c | 44.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 48c | 43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 163 | 49.7%81 W · 82 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 127 | 56.7%72 W · 55 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa709…8d1dbacked Under | 51c | 38.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24d8…e8a8backed Over | 53c | 31.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +5.2wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x72e4…0369backed Under | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.18per pick | 36cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed Over | 49c | 20.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lions vs. Bears: O/U 50.5this page
- Lions vs. BearsLions won
- Lions vs. Bears: 1H MoneylineLions won
- Lions vs. Bears: O/U 49.5Under won
- Lions vs. Bears: O/U 51.5Under won
- Spread: Bears (-1.5)Lions won
- Spread: Bears (-2.5)Lions won
- Spread: Bears (-3.5)Lions won
- Spread: Bears (-4.5)Lions won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.