NHL · resolved market
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc72ed2c419f4a336015bc919b50d5ffc14301d8f1c205ee53ba4502b44c781bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wildof Golden Knights, Wild
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,449
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,431
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,449 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1b9e…0262backed Golden Knights | 33c | 4,500$1,485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,484.99 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked Wild | 67c | 3,471$2,326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,145.4 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.29per pick | 44cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xacbe…85d4backed Wild | 67c | 479$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.07 | 201 | 47.3%95 W · 106 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Wild | 76c | 418.75$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.5 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Golden Knights | 24c | 298.75$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.7 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Wild | 67c | 282.14$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.11 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4970…21f6backed Wild | 70c | 157$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.1 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Wild | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x102f…9b6ebacked Wild | 70c | 146$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…ee41backed Wild | 70c | 125$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Wild | 68c | 108.36$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.24 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Golden Knights | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Golden Knights | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 210 | 40.5%85 W · 125 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…dce6backed Wild | 70c | 82$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28e7…7384backed Wild | 70c | 69$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4669…785ebacked Wild | 70c | 68$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked Wild | 70c | 68$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Golden Knights | 30c | 67.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea0e…a5dabacked Wild | 67c | 67.16$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Wild | 68c | 62.52$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7563…1fb3backed Wild | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e75…e81dbacked Wild | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…3a8abacked Wild | 70c | 59$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked Wild | 70c | 59$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67ec…06aabacked Golden Knights | 30c | 56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…07d8backed Wild | 70c | 55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Wild | 68c | 54.18$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae28…5d17backed Wild | 70c | 54$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fba…dc55backed Golden Knights | 30c | 48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Golden Knights | 32c | 45.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 607 | 41%249 W · 358 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43dc…88cfbacked Golden Knights | 30c | 44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…af43backed Wild | 70c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…d929backed Golden Knights | 30c | 42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7483…96a6backed Golden Knights | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2949…76bcbacked Golden Knights | 30c | 37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fc…8cc0backed Golden Knights | 30c | 37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Golden Knights | 30c | 34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50fc…ba9abacked Wild | 70c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)this page
- Wild vs. Golden KnightsWild won
- Wild vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5Over won
- Wild vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.