NHL · resolved market
Wild vs. Sharks: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3587afbb185b196058e887882ef693f99ad62fce01cb570e15da32614fb44db1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,783
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,087
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,783 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Under | 54c | 10,728$5,815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,815 | 168 | 43.5%73 W · 95 L | -14.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Over | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,039.96 | 225 | 46.2%104 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Over | 46c | 3,000$1,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,620 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 45c | 2,388$1,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,319.76 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 46c | 1,775$809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$966.45 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Under | 51c | 1,768$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901.48 | 282 | 51.8%146 W · 136 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 50c | 1,512$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755.99 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 360 | 38.6%139 W · 221 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x106b…4e8bbacked Over | 51c | 937.37$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.01 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -7.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 46c | 815$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.1 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 767.37$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.01 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Under | 6c | 735$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 217 | 4.1%9 W · 208 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 51c | 666$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.66 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Over | 46c | 600$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324 | 222 | 48.2%107 W · 115 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Under | 50c | 555$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.5 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -6.3wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 485 | 52.2%253 W · 232 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Under | 13c | 387.96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.29 | 294 | 12.9%38 W · 256 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 759 | 46.6%354 W · 405 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8307…ad90backed Under | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 37 | 5.4%2 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Over | 46c | 240$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.6 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Over | 48c | 223$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.96 | 792 | 51.1%405 W · 387 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Under | 51c | 200.94$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.48 | 308 | 55.5%171 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…b1b9backed Under | 54c | 199.42$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.69 | 337 | 35%118 W · 219 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf60…f8d5backed Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -8.3wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 46c | 190.92$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.83 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 28c | 183.01$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.93 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc916…2ee5backed Under | 47c | 175$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.02 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 76c | 156.93$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.06 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4651…8da8backed Under | 13c | 150.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Under | 51c | 150$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 50c | 126$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Under | 51c | 111$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.61 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 48c | 108$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 605 | 49.3%298 W · 307 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e3…9efebacked Under | 51c | 103.36$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.71 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Over | 46c | 90$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 481 | 49.3%237 W · 244 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Over | 46c | 90$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 472 | 49.2%232 W · 240 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fc…13ccbacked Over | 50c | 88.78$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.39 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Over | 46c | 72$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 263 | 48.7%128 W · 135 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Over | 46c | 72$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 271 | 48.7%132 W · 139 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 295 | 50.2%148 W · 147 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c6…75adbacked Over | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 401 | 52.4%210 W · 191 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 46c | 54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 264 | 48.9%129 W · 135 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…c6d6backed Over | 49c | 54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Over | 46c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 216 | 48.1%104 W · 112 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50c1…6c6cbacked Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 137 | 43.1%59 W · 78 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…f4b6backed Over | 46c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 196 | 45.4%89 W · 107 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…f56bbacked Over | 46c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 204 | 47.5%97 W · 107 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed Over | 46c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked Over | 46c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Over | 46c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 291 | 47.4%138 W · 153 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Over | 46c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 130 | 46.2%60 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…b023backed Over | 46c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed Over | 46c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 194 | 42.8%83 W · 111 L | -12.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Over | 46c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 196 | 47.4%93 W · 103 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed Over | 46c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 189 | 46%87 W · 102 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed Over | 46c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 197 | 45.2%89 W · 108 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Over | 48c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 418 | 51.4%215 W · 203 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Over | 46c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 190 | 46.8%89 W · 101 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Over | 46c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 200 | 45.5%91 W · 109 L | -7.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6666…c652backed Over | 50c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 48c | 31.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea0e…a5dabacked Under | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 64c | 28.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…e66fbacked Over | 46c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Over | 50c | 22.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…ace1backed Over | 50c | 20.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 45cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0969…b289backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wild vs. Sharks: O/U 6.5this page
- Spread: Wild (-1.5)Sharks won
- Wild vs. SharksSharks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.