TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Jaguars vs. Colts

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Jaguarsof Jaguars, Colts
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,162,124
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,554,225

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,162,124 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 754 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1ff2…dbbdbacked Jaguars67c149,254$100,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49,253.733767.6%25 W · 12 L+5.7wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+32.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Colts34c131,194$44,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,163.567554.7%41 W · 34 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f11…5a95backed Colts31c103,308$31,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,80050%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Colts32c90,772$29,436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,436.139359.1%55 W · 38 L+10.2wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+22.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x58ff…73a4backed Jaguars67c86,558$57,994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,564.01450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Jaguars59c75,241$44,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,975.2530043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb889…a430backed Colts34c60,000$20,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,4003850%19 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Colts33c50,926$16,662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,662.1273651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Colts35c50,000$17,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,50016836.9%62 W · 106 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Colts32c42,005$13,439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,438.6819152.9%101 W · 90 L+0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Colts32c40,000$12,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,799.8814342%60 W · 83 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Jaguars67c36,054$24,176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,878.3975852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Colts34c31,930$10,742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,742.1811643.1%50 W · 66 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Jaguars69c30,797$21,247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,549.7753348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Jaguars66c30,000$19,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,20016051.9%83 W · 77 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Colts30c28,392$8,642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,641.6521254.2%115 W · 97 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5350…2fdabacked Jaguars68c25,000$17,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,929.994250%21 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Jaguars70c24,866$17,328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,538.427248.6%35 W · 37 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Colts31c22,450$6,875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,87512944.2%57 W · 72 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Colts6c22,095$1,398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,397.812748%61 W · 66 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Jaguars68c20,601$14,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,592.325837.9%22 W · 36 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7c…357dbacked Jaguars68c19,314$13,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,274.151662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Colts19c19,169$3,614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,614.2823244.4%103 W · 129 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5682…97afbacked Jaguars77c19,128$14,803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,324.571190.9%10 W · 1 L+3.6wins+0.32per pick58cpaid+60.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Jaguars68c19,073$13,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,059.8986547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88a2…d974backed Colts33c18,182$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,00013142%55 W · 76 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d1c…f13cbacked Jaguars78c17,700$13,741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,959.543043.3%13 W · 17 L-5.3wins-0.18per pick61cpaid-31.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0d3b…c46bbacked Colts29c16,614$4,835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,834.9511145.9%51 W · 60 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Jaguars70c16,001$11,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,840.1739447.7%188 W · 206 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked Jaguars67c14,918$9,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,922.91683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick73cpaid+16.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Colts40c14,447$5,731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,730.820026%52 W · 148 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Colts35c13,665$4,813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,812.7250242.4%213 W · 289 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Colts4c12,267$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.5212138.8%47 W · 74 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa553…ef40backed Jaguars62c12,227$7,581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,646.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8a5…122bbacked Jaguars69c11,520$7,949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,571.291464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+22.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf70c…72c1backed Colts34c10,471$3,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,560.14415.9%7 W · 37 L-5.9wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-46.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Colts8c10,430$851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851.3431543.2%136 W · 179 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebc9…6786backed Jaguars70c10,104$7,073 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,031.291573.3%11 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.16per pick57cpaid+29%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x240c…bd0dbacked Jaguars71c10,100$7,171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,929757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+20.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x309f…9282backed Jaguars59c10,087$6,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,086.47557.3%43 W · 32 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45d5…47efbacked Colts30c10,010$3,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0032626.9%7 W · 19 L-5.4wins-0.21per pick48cpaid-48%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xc374…46f4backed Colts29c10,000$2,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,900742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb802…5bbebacked Jaguars55c9,519$5,215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,303.98333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Colts36c9,491$3,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,459.5323850.8%121 W · 117 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Jaguars68c9,000$6,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,899.9826650.8%135 W · 131 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Jaguars69c8,044$5,581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,463.5712744.9%57 W · 70 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Colts34c7,680$2,611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,611.194362.8%27 W · 16 L+4.3wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+24%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x39fd…5a3fbacked Jaguars67c7,489$5,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,471.294100%4 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+77%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Colts53c7,226$3,808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,808.2511139.6%44 W · 67 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd89e…35fabacked Jaguars69c6,400$4,402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9982045%9 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd36…a8acbacked Colts51c6,325$3,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,226.056645.5%30 W · 36 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5555…2af1backed Jaguars67c6,000$4,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9801566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+39.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9397…ceb4backed Jaguars69c6,000$4,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,859.99650%3 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-28.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Jaguars68c5,913$4,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,878.181,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Colts31c5,750$1,771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,771.1554451.7%281 W · 263 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd27c…c081backed Jaguars67c5,600$3,752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8482373.9%17 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick68cpaid+11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf655…7ea4backed Colts34c5,000$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,70016226.5%43 W · 119 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-30.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa849…c825backed Jaguars67c5,000$3,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6508351.8%43 W · 40 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6576…6cc5backed Colts30c5,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc480…0caabacked Jaguars70c5,000$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,500475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+35.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Jaguars70c5,000$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,50019651.5%101 W · 95 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4534…f867backed Colts35c5,000$1,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7502941.4%12 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…837dbacked Jaguars61c4,900$2,989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9117147.9%34 W · 37 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Jaguars70c4,887$3,421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,466.035547.3%26 W · 29 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-7.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Colts31c4,808$1,478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,477.7131854.7%174 W · 144 L+16.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Colts13c4,503$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577.7716955%93 W · 76 L+15.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb924…0886backed Colts24c4,494$1,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,057.8915132.5%49 W · 102 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked Jaguars70c4,493$3,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,355.615446.8%72 W · 82 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Jaguars62c4,219$2,612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,606.1927348.7%133 W · 140 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Colts31c4,000$1,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,24051352.2%268 W · 245 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ae…7b92backed Colts30c4,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2004330.2%13 W · 30 L-4.3wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-23.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Colts4c3,882$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.8164747.3%306 W · 341 L+42.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+56.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x78f7…2c5dbacked Jaguars70c3,828$2,665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,162.495860.3%35 W · 23 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+18.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c95…ed41backed Jaguars68c3,758$2,556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,202.631741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+29.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe648…b79abacked Jaguars69c3,716$2,564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,151.942263.6%14 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5822…629cbacked Jaguars68c3,685$2,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,165.91520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-70.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0a7e…c00abacked Jaguars70c3,674$2,555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,118.872356.5%13 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+19.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf05…70dabacked Jaguars55c3,628$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,628.214763.9%94 W · 53 L+12.0wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+14.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd51b…9606backed Jaguars69c3,623$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,123.196738.8%26 W · 41 L-7.8wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-26.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7990…c870backed Jaguars70c3,571$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,071.438953.9%48 W · 41 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cee…b72abacked Jaguars68c3,520$2,394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,126.4757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Colts32c3,501$1,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,126.6956852.3%297 W · 271 L+26.3wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Colts27c3,409$911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$911.1868446.1%315 W · 369 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c0c…7c83backed Jaguars54c3,311$1,774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,537.224266.7%28 W · 14 L+6.8wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+30.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5a0c…9db8backed Colts31c3,200$996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$995.992821.4%6 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick21cpaid-19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2c0…69d0backed Jaguars72c3,080$2,213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$867.285549.1%27 W · 28 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Jaguars69c3,033$2,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$940.3431848.1%153 W · 165 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Colts33c3,012$994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$993.8511544.3%51 W · 64 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-7.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Colts33c3,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00012250%61 W · 61 L+8.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+19.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x56eb…f3d2backed Jaguars70c2,982$2,087 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$894.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad6a…9dbdbacked Jaguars67c2,955$1,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$975.222638.5%10 W · 16 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+25.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x19ff…d0d0backed Jaguars66c2,949$1,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$998.894240.5%17 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ca8…1a39backed Jaguars50c2,918$1,467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,451.451752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5976…b3d4backed Colts30c2,860$858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8583727%10 W · 27 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-40.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2984…0fc6backed Jaguars71c2,817$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$816.94744.7%21 W · 26 L-4.0wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-20%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0523…ace5backed Jaguars71c2,765$1,963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801.85560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+24.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Jaguars65c2,750$1,777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$972.81250%6 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Jaguars70c2,683$1,886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$796.7747348.4%229 W · 244 L+1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked Colts35c2,628$916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$916.278737.9%33 W · 54 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-21.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x360d…5e0fbacked Jaguars59c2,522$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,021.871729.4%5 W · 12 L-3.2wins-0.19per pick48cpaid-38.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.