TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Spread: Jaguars (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Jaguarsof Jaguars, Colts
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$72,308
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$83,035

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,308 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb889…a430backed Colts52c24,550$12,766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,766.213850%19 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Jaguars50c10,000$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,0004358.1%25 W · 18 L+4.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+33.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Colts50c9,719$4,859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,859.421254.2%115 W · 97 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Jaguars50c8,646$4,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,358.0877052.7%406 W · 364 L+24.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c09…c9b4backed Jaguars48c8,333$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,333.3318140.9%74 W · 107 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid+42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Colts48c6,693$3,209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,208.6186547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe916…4563backed Jaguars56c5,132$2,859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,273.146965.2%45 W · 24 L+9.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+30.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Jaguars48c5,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,599.9918435.9%66 W · 118 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5555…2af1backed Jaguars48c4,000$1,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0801566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+39.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Colts45c3,347$1,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,498.911,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Jaguars48c2,500$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,30015252.6%80 W · 72 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+17.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Colts50c2,456$1,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,22813560%81 W · 54 L+14.7wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+21.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb2e2…4e99backed Colts52c2,308$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2006647%31 W · 35 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Jaguars52c2,300$1,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,108.9865048.3%314 W · 336 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked Colts51c2,227$1,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,125.415446.8%72 W · 82 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8ac…c62dbacked Jaguars49c2,017$989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,028.891637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick40cpaid+4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8d7…c17bbacked Jaguars48c1,600$768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83211759.8%70 W · 47 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Colts45c1,588$716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$716.2639447.7%188 W · 206 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb72b…f4e0backed Jaguars48c1,521$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$790.8316737.7%63 W · 104 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Colts49c1,153$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.251352.2%268 W · 245 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe5f…d795backed Colts52c999.99$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52011452.6%60 W · 54 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Jaguars47c934.49$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.2816051.9%83 W · 77 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd51b…9606backed Jaguars60c837.25$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.256738.8%26 W · 41 L-7.8wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-26.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe544…3cfcbacked Jaguars48c800$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4165550.9%28 W · 27 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Colts40c602.52$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.0175852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Jaguars51c588.24$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.2416351.5%84 W · 79 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Colts49c404.12$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.9236341.9%152 W · 211 L-13.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Colts53c400$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2128345.8%38 W · 45 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-14.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Jaguars54c400$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18426857.1%153 W · 115 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Colts53c380$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.455345%249 W · 304 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc210…39fcbacked Jaguars52c375$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1806663.6%42 W · 24 L+9.7wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+30.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x002d…4a9cbacked Jaguars50c332$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick53cpaid+35.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x43d7…dca3backed Colts52c288.46$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1506755.2%37 W · 30 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6564…8846backed Jaguars51c241.82$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.494158.5%24 W · 17 L+4.5wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+23.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Colts49c217.96$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.2154451.7%281 W · 263 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0102…e4d2backed Jaguars56c212.5$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.51764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x58ab…9450backed Jaguars50c199.88$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.94450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+17.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf60…f8d5backed Jaguars52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.312560%15 W · 10 L+3.0wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+30.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed Colts52c179.45$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.3116860.7%102 W · 66 L+18.7wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+21.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x34ad…040abacked Jaguars59c169.97$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.972532%8 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-11.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Colts41c143.1$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.6734652.9%183 W · 163 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xabdf…3cbcbacked Jaguars48c130.06$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.635444.4%24 W · 30 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Colts50c120$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6012356.9%70 W · 53 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0fad…aa0fbacked Colts50c120$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6011058.2%64 W · 46 L+11.0wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+19.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc383…a540backed Colts50c120$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6011265.2%73 W · 39 L+16.1wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+29.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x0915…d08abacked Jaguars48c110$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.27745.5%35 W · 42 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa5f…3de3backed Jaguars49c104$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.042166.7%14 W · 7 L+4.1wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+46.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Colts58c103$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.6373651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc468…530fbacked Colts49c101.01$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.494259.5%25 W · 17 L+5.5wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+19.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4451…c6afbacked Colts53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534032.5%13 W · 27 L-4.9wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-29.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x5fb3…88c1backed Jaguars55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4518245.6%83 W · 99 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe43b…f955backed Jaguars48c83.33$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.334748.9%23 W · 24 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Jaguars51c81.53$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.951,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7820…60a9backed Jaguars49c73.47$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.471861.1%11 W · 7 L+3.9wins+0.21per pick40cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8d67…cf38backed Jaguars49c73$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.231546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3381…52bcbacked Colts49c66.62$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.642941.4%12 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-20.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2a88…2bffbacked Colts49c61$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.894259.5%25 W · 17 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x31ce…88cdbacked Jaguars50c60$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3013357.1%76 W · 57 L+9.2wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+15.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1941…c47fbacked Colts50c60$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010155.4%56 W · 45 L+5.9wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+12.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9adf…3f2fbacked Colts50c60$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010361.2%63 W · 40 L+11.3wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+24.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdcf7…bcbebacked Jaguars50c60$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3011463.2%72 W · 42 L+14.5wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+26.6%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xd2dc…b3c5backed Colts50c60$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010161.4%62 W · 39 L+11.3wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+24.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6b82…2d2abacked Jaguars50c60$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3010864.8%70 W · 38 L+15.5wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+29.4%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xe6df…22a9backed Colts50c60$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010861.1%66 W · 42 L+11.4wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+23.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x313d…6f98backed Jaguars53c56.6$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.65858.6%34 W · 24 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9592…e568backed Colts53c52.83$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf86a…9ed1backed Colts51c45$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.95850%4 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Jaguars49c42.8$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.834942.9%21 W · 28 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e08…15ebbacked Colts47c42.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202181%17 W · 4 L+6.1wins+0.29per pick52cpaid+51%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x859a…1ccebacked Colts51c42$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.42933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-31%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf9d…3ea9backed Jaguars48c41.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.6726660.9%162 W · 104 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a59…e94cbacked Jaguars62c40.32$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.326550.8%33 W · 32 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Colts38c40.32$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3219439.2%76 W · 118 L-11.5wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeb01…2783backed Jaguars47c40$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.212459.7%74 W · 50 L+12.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+20.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe450…a6c9backed Jaguars50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20875%6 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+45.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed Jaguars39c40$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.46453.1%34 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1acc…35b7backed Jaguars55c36.52$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.523161.3%19 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick62cpaid+2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Colts42c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.634247.4%162 W · 180 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc94d…2b20backed Colts51c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+16.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d89…87b0backed Colts51c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc840…0650backed Colts51c29.04$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.682347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Colts45c27$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.152347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd62d…02ccbacked Jaguars53c22.64$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.6419954.8%109 W · 90 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.