NFL · resolved market
Jaguars vs. Colts: O/U 45.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ff65d712783d52aa7b8b24ee257a6246f387c7bb9e0dc4bf3449decac43ba9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,131
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,141
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,131 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6576…6cc5backed Under | 40c | 23,000$9,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,800 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc480…0caabacked Over | 60c | 23,000$13,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,800 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf7e…339abacked Over | 62c | 3,211$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.29per pick | 56cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 38c | 3,089$1,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,925.2 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Under | 39c | 133$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.13 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed Under | 41c | 132$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.88 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Under | 39c | 99.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 315 | 40.6%128 W · 187 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed Under | 40c | 92$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa024…4929backed Under | 41c | 78$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.02 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.7wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Under | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed Under | 39c | 61.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.63 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 39c | 61.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.63 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d72…c356backed Over | 61c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -4.8wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 60c | 57.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2999…50bcbacked Over | 59c | 49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14cd…1716backed Over | 60c | 48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a9…f72ebacked Over | 60c | 44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…de52backed Over | 59c | 43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf9…142bbacked Over | 61c | 42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…5e22backed Under | 39c | 39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +22%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Under | 41c | 33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…9305backed Under | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Under | 39c | 29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +4.0wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x370a…cccebacked Over | 59c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f6…9cdabacked Over | 61c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60a6…7ed2backed Over | 59c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd4…9cebbacked Over | 61c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5d…be79backed Over | 61c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaac…1045backed Over | 59c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 58c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jaguars vs. Colts: O/U 45.5this page
- 1H Spread: Jaguars (-3.5)Colts won
- Jaguars vs. ColtsJaguars won
- Jaguars vs. Colts: 1H MoneylineColts won
- Jaguars vs. Colts: 1H O/U 23.5Under won
- Jaguars vs. Colts: O/U 43.5Under won
- Jaguars vs. Colts: O/U 44.5Under won
- Jaguars vs. Colts: O/U 46.5Under won
- Jaguars vs. Colts: O/U 47.5Under won
- Jaguars vs. Colts: O/U 48.5Under won
- Jonathan Taylor: Receiving Yards O/U 17.5Under won
- Spread: Colts (-1.5)Jaguars won
- Spread: Jaguars (-1.5)Jaguars won
- Spread: Jaguars (-3.5)Jaguars won
- Spread: Jaguars (-4.5)Jaguars won
- Spread: Jaguars (-5.5)Jaguars won
- Spread: Jaguars (-6.5)Colts won
- Spread: Jaguars (-7.5)Colts won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.