NFL · resolved market
Jaguars vs. Colts: O/U 44.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd8dd53ecc4dc46cb59cdaf584b2fdfb8994105e7dfd31e5544cb50ded29196c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,518
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,798
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,518 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 55c | 2,906$1,598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,598.32 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 45c | 1,532$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$842.89 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5682…97afbacked Under | 36c | 1,375$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$873.35 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +3.6wins | +0.32per pick | 58cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 59c | 302$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.18 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 41c | 297$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.23 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -11.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 39c | 250$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.5 | 192 | 40.1%77 W · 115 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…2422backed Over | 62c | 242.47$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 162 | 43.8%71 W · 91 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 49c | 182$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.18 | 356 | 48%171 W · 185 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…3de3backed Under | 37c | 182$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.66 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…9b53backed Under | 68c | 174.65$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.89 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked Under | 36c | 134.53$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.1 | 148 | 37.2%55 W · 93 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Over | 64c | 117$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.71 | 182 | 45.6%83 W · 99 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b8…799cbacked Over | 61c | 114.89$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Under | 40c | 100.04$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.75 | 315 | 40.6%128 W · 187 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa024…4929backed Under | 40c | 64$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.7wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 44c | 48.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 207 | 57.5%119 W · 88 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc07…e9f2backed Over | 63c | 43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -59%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 37c | 40.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 163 | 49.7%81 W · 82 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe21a…88edbacked Over | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 60c | 35.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 294 | 39.5%116 W · 178 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12af…0730backed Over | 63c | 34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe829…a4aabacked Over | 63c | 33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x521c…64d2backed Over | 63c | 26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 64c | 25.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 60c | 25.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480a…e3c9backed Over | 63c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.2wins | -0.35per pick | 57cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd53e…e70cbacked Under | 56c | 23.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Over | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 199 | 54.8%109 W · 90 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaac…1045backed Over | 63c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Under | 56c | 20.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcf…4028backed Over | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1acc…35b7backed Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jaguars vs. Colts: O/U 44.5this page
- 1H Spread: Jaguars (-3.5)Colts won
- Jaguars vs. ColtsJaguars won
- Jaguars vs. Colts: 1H MoneylineColts won
- Jaguars vs. Colts: 1H O/U 23.5Under won
- Jaguars vs. Colts: O/U 43.5Under won
- Jaguars vs. Colts: O/U 45.5Under won
- Jaguars vs. Colts: O/U 46.5Under won
- Jaguars vs. Colts: O/U 47.5Under won
- Jaguars vs. Colts: O/U 48.5Under won
- Jonathan Taylor: Receiving Yards O/U 17.5Under won
- Spread: Colts (-1.5)Jaguars won
- Spread: Jaguars (-1.5)Jaguars won
- Spread: Jaguars (-3.5)Jaguars won
- Spread: Jaguars (-4.5)Jaguars won
- Spread: Jaguars (-5.5)Jaguars won
- Spread: Jaguars (-6.5)Colts won
- Spread: Jaguars (-7.5)Colts won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.