NFL · resolved market
Spread: Jaguars (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79dc46fdf61696096cedb6af57e58ee1374d95b1c2119cee26f96b51a9dc263d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Coltsof Jaguars, Colts
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,199
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,599
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,199 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Colts | 62c | 11,614$7,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,409.35 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Jaguars | 38c | 5,014$1,888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,887.86 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Jaguars | 44c | 5,000$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,200 | 239 | 37.7%90 W · 149 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Colts | 56c | 5,000$2,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,200 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Jaguars | 38c | 2,500$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 144 | 38.9%56 W · 88 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…30fabacked Jaguars | 39c | 1,674$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.73 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d59…e0edbacked Jaguars | 37c | 945.95$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Jaguars | 38c | 900$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Jaguars | 37c | 815$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.55 | 314 | 50%157 W · 157 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Jaguars | 39c | 657$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.16 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Colts | 60c | 562.09$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.91 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed Colts | 63c | 400$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb225…d86bbacked Colts | 65c | 300$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 89 | 56.2%50 W · 39 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397d…794fbacked Colts | 65c | 247.69$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.69 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Jaguars | 39c | 206$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.16 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x036a…4c9abacked Jaguars | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Colts | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…5e22backed Jaguars | 39c | 85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +22%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46ed…cfa6backed Colts | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 122 | 50%61 W · 61 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…c6d6backed Jaguars | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…07d8backed Colts | 61c | 49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Colts | 63c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 320 | 43.8%140 W · 180 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Colts | 63c | 40.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 206 | 61.2%126 W · 80 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Colts | 57c | 39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 148 | 44.6%66 W · 82 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Jaguars | 39c | 34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25c3…eb62backed Colts | 61c | 34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Colts | 56c | 31.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Colts | 61c | 31.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 199 | 54.8%109 W · 90 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…89e4backed Colts | 65c | 29.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.3wins | -0.30per pick | 58cpaid | -59%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6e…6a74backed Colts | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 121 | 48.8%59 W · 62 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2999…50bcbacked Colts | 61c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Jaguars (-7.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Jaguars (-3.5)Colts won
- Jaguars vs. ColtsJaguars won
- Jaguars vs. Colts: 1H MoneylineColts won
- Jaguars vs. Colts: 1H O/U 23.5Under won
- Jaguars vs. Colts: O/U 43.5Under won
- Jaguars vs. Colts: O/U 44.5Under won
- Jaguars vs. Colts: O/U 45.5Under won
- Jaguars vs. Colts: O/U 46.5Under won
- Jaguars vs. Colts: O/U 47.5Under won
- Jaguars vs. Colts: O/U 48.5Under won
- Jonathan Taylor: Receiving Yards O/U 17.5Under won
- Spread: Colts (-1.5)Jaguars won
- Spread: Jaguars (-1.5)Jaguars won
- Spread: Jaguars (-3.5)Jaguars won
- Spread: Jaguars (-4.5)Jaguars won
- Spread: Jaguars (-5.5)Jaguars won
- Spread: Jaguars (-6.5)Colts won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.