NFL · resolved market
Spread: Jaguars (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea9b16a660a49af0f18638cefa49f7a7922d2c1cf32e1cba1687724017bcf6d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jaguarsof Jaguars, Colts
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,797
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,791
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,797 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d3b…c46bbacked Colts | 49c | 11,832$5,855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,855.04 | 111 | 45.9%51 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Colts | 52c | 10,000$5,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,200 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Colts | 52c | 8,432$4,384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,384.37 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Colts | 50c | 6,919$3,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,474.47 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1a…8bedbacked Jaguars | 51c | 6,863$3,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,362.75 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87b6…4ababacked Jaguars | 48c | 6,250$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,250 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Jaguars | 48c | 5,002$2,401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,601.01 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Jaguars | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 266 | 50.8%135 W · 131 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…1862backed Jaguars | 48c | 3,958$1,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,058.33 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -6.5wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -50%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Jaguars | 49c | 2,820$1,376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,444.41 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9e…0262backed Jaguars | 53c | 2,520$1,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,189.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Jaguars | 47c | 2,052$964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,087.5 | 284 | 47.5%135 W · 149 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa63c…27a4backed Jaguars | 47c | 1,409$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.51 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Colts | 50c | 1,299$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.16 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Colts | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 206 | 61.2%126 W · 80 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe544…3cfcbacked Jaguars | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed Jaguars | 46c | 900$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…66abbacked Jaguars | 53c | 837.53$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.64 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf782…6849backed Colts | 48c | 768.27$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.77 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…44f1backed Jaguars | 48c | 558.33$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.33 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed Jaguars | 45c | 557.24$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.48 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd277…73febacked Jaguars | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x801e…ad90backed Colts | 52c | 493.29$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.51 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Jaguars | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Jaguars | 48c | 375$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +9.7wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Jaguars | 49c | 353.41$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.12 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2123…8d70backed Jaguars | 51c | 310.04$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.87 | 117 | 40.2%47 W · 70 L | -10.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Colts | 54c | 300$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Jaguars | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 169 | 57.4%97 W · 72 L | +15.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e57…21cbbacked Colts | 53c | 283.02$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53b0…4daabacked Jaguars | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Jaguars | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Jaguars | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8160…c908backed Jaguars | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 54cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Colts | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 223 | 49.8%111 W · 112 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Colts | 52c | 114.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.56 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Jaguars | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Colts | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 243 | 52.7%128 W · 115 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c01…428ebacked Colts | 53c | 94.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -5.3wins | -0.28per pick | 54cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x87ae…811bbacked Jaguars | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Colts | 48c | 94$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.12 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae28…5d17backed Jaguars | 46c | 78$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3381…52bcbacked Colts | 52c | 60.64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked Jaguars | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 114 | 63.2%72 W · 42 L | +14.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Colts | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b82…2d2abacked Jaguars | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | +15.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…c6d6backed Jaguars | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Jaguars | 46c | 51.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.39 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +6.5wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Jaguars | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72e4…0369backed Jaguars | 50c | 46.54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.27 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.18per pick | 36cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f55…bae8backed Jaguars | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 160 | 48.1%77 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Jaguars | 45c | 41.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 315 | 40.6%128 W · 187 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…3d1cbacked Jaguars | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x315a…b24cbacked Jaguars | 52c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a94…31e6backed Colts | 54c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Colts | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…1f57backed Colts | 54c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a45…36dcbacked Colts | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Jaguars (-5.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Jaguars (-3.5)Colts won
- Jaguars vs. ColtsJaguars won
- Jaguars vs. Colts: 1H MoneylineColts won
- Jaguars vs. Colts: 1H O/U 23.5Under won
- Jaguars vs. Colts: O/U 43.5Under won
- Jaguars vs. Colts: O/U 44.5Under won
- Jaguars vs. Colts: O/U 45.5Under won
- Jaguars vs. Colts: O/U 46.5Under won
- Jaguars vs. Colts: O/U 47.5Under won
- Jaguars vs. Colts: O/U 48.5Under won
- Jonathan Taylor: Receiving Yards O/U 17.5Under won
- Spread: Colts (-1.5)Jaguars won
- Spread: Jaguars (-1.5)Jaguars won
- Spread: Jaguars (-3.5)Jaguars won
- Spread: Jaguars (-4.5)Jaguars won
- Spread: Jaguars (-6.5)Colts won
- Spread: Jaguars (-7.5)Colts won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.