NFL · resolved market
Jaguars vs. Colts: O/U 47.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5c6b12a0568216ae6673afb8dcbd6aaf366f41283ee7ad2f22da51bd91533fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,164
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,219
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,164 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1be4…47c3backed Over | 53c | 10,200$5,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,406 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc38a…aff3backed Under | 47c | 8,500$3,995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,505 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3700…3c06backed Under | 47c | 4,300$2,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,279 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f82…5ba7backed Over | 53c | 3,400$1,802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,802 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5682…97afbacked Under | 54c | 1,115$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.15 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +3.6wins | +0.32per pick | 58cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1abf…6024backed Over | 54c | 1,111$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Under | 46c | 1,075$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.5 | 140 | 35%49 W · 91 L | -12.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bd…11bebacked Under | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b22…c59cbacked Over | 55c | 922.3$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.27 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 45c | 600$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Over | 49c | 600$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 127 | 48%61 W · 66 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 45c | 505.13$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.82 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 43c | 445$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.35 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Over | 53c | 400$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 136 | 41.2%56 W · 80 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 116 | 40.5%47 W · 69 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Under | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 315 | 40.6%128 W · 187 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 55c | 292.39$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 137 | 52.6%72 W · 65 L | +10.9wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 46c | 253$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.62 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Over | 54c | 250$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 192 | 40.1%77 W · 115 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd6…6202backed Over | 55c | 227.27$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac81…3fd2backed Over | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5912…2fe0backed Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 47c | 134.84$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.47 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…71e4backed Under | 46c | 134$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.36 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 243 | 52.7%128 W · 115 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 47c | 89$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.25 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 47c | 86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.52 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…5526backed Under | 46c | 85$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 46c | 65.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 209 | 44.5%93 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06f4…758dbacked Under | 45c | 65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.75 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…2f86backed Over | 54c | 42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…ab38backed Over | 54c | 41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f2…6d82backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 43c | 34.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 127 | 56.7%72 W · 55 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 52c | 29.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 149 | 52.3%78 W · 71 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cae…bf8abacked Over | 52c | 29.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 124 | 58.1%72 W · 52 L | +10.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…c4e5backed Under | 46c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5935…b8dabacked Over | 54c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -55%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 234 | 47.9%112 W · 122 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca65…6746backed Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +40%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5253…b898backed Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e29…c992backed Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jaguars vs. Colts: O/U 47.5this page
- 1H Spread: Jaguars (-3.5)Colts won
- Jaguars vs. ColtsJaguars won
- Jaguars vs. Colts: 1H MoneylineColts won
- Jaguars vs. Colts: 1H O/U 23.5Under won
- Jaguars vs. Colts: O/U 43.5Under won
- Jaguars vs. Colts: O/U 44.5Under won
- Jaguars vs. Colts: O/U 45.5Under won
- Jaguars vs. Colts: O/U 46.5Under won
- Jaguars vs. Colts: O/U 48.5Under won
- Jonathan Taylor: Receiving Yards O/U 17.5Under won
- Spread: Colts (-1.5)Jaguars won
- Spread: Jaguars (-1.5)Jaguars won
- Spread: Jaguars (-3.5)Jaguars won
- Spread: Jaguars (-4.5)Jaguars won
- Spread: Jaguars (-5.5)Jaguars won
- Spread: Jaguars (-6.5)Colts won
- Spread: Jaguars (-7.5)Colts won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.