NBA · resolved market
Magic vs. Raptors: O/U 221.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6b4de3df44332055a0e7d20859a20fc90d79b299e8a78f3d6ca13825b373a2d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $101,036
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $100,885
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,036 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf42…d698backed Under | 50c | 60,000$29,976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,024.24 | 170 | 31.8%54 W · 116 L | -24.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6184…79a2backed Over | 50c | 12,000$6,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,000 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68a5…a2f5backed Over | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 52c | 10,000$5,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,799.95 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0842…4500backed Over | 50c | 9,998$4,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,998.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbab0…f131backed Over | 50c | 9,216$4,608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,607.89 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 48c | 7,138$3,454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,454.42 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f2…da9cbacked Over | 50c | 5,653$2,827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,826.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 5,325$2,581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,580.86 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x647e…6d10backed Over | 49c | 4,982$2,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,441 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0352…3292backed Under | 51c | 4,303$2,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,129.69 | 101 | 58.4%59 W · 42 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed Under | 54c | 4,266$2,301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,964.2 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9531…8140backed Over | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Over | 48c | 2,523$1,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,210 | 485 | 46.4%225 W · 260 L | -14.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf95…eb74backed Over | 51c | 2,100$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,071 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e8…29f1backed Over | 51c | 2,100$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,071 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcebf…0706backed Over | 51c | 2,100$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,071 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b8…e3dabacked Under | 49c | 2,100$1,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,071 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf32…e0e7backed Under | 49c | 2,100$1,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,071 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc898…e5b3backed Under | 49c | 2,100$1,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,071 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 164 | 42.1%69 W · 95 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0500…6158backed Over | 46c | 1,654$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89bd…3f72backed Over | 50c | 1,287$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.5 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26eb…22d0backed Over | 50c | 1,286$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.1 | 277 | 35%97 W · 180 L | -30.7wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 52c | 796.71$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.93 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Over | 50c | 732$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.14 | 446 | 48%214 W · 232 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 47c | 558$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.26 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ee…697bbacked Under | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 203 | 52.2%106 W · 97 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed Over | 48c | 456.44$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.09 | 363 | 51.2%186 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x426f…e76bbacked Over | 47c | 417.55$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.39 | 176 | 44.9%79 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Over | 50c | 414$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 51c | 400$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51e1…c98abacked Over | 48c | 347.92$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…39fdbacked Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Under | 52c | 299.62$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.86 | 181 | 57.5%104 W · 77 L | +21.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 51c | 236.68$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.71 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Under | 49c | 199.61$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.8 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…b3d4backed Over | 50c | 128$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Under | 53c | 120.2$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.49 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Over | 52c | 119$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.34 | 311 | 44.4%138 W · 173 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 48c | 115.98$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.77 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 477 | 38.2%182 W · 295 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…52e6backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…2893backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 37c | 94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Under | 53c | 89.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 734 | 45.5%334 W · 400 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 334 | 42.8%143 W · 191 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8636…f893backed Over | 53c | 73$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Under | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 377 | 55.7%210 W · 167 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 47c | 62.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 46c | 53.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34e8…cff9backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d45…55e9backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10fc…aa69backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7597…a162backed Over | 50c | 45.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 47c | 44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 52c | 39.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c17…0458backed Over | 48c | 37.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 171 | 53.2%91 W · 80 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Over | 58c | 32.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 271 | 44.3%120 W · 151 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa709…8d1dbacked Over | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd612…0bc1backed Over | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 115 | 64.3%74 W · 41 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ca…0a0dbacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 126 | 48.4%61 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea0e…a5dabacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Over | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 493 | 58.6%289 W · 204 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0969…b289backed Over | 49c | 23.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 222 | 47.3%105 W · 117 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 53c | 21.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 52c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb308…19debacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.5wins | -0.24per pick | 50cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa448…81a1backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5d…b99abacked Over | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Magic vs. Raptors: O/U 221.5this page
- Magic vs. RaptorsRaptors won
- Magic vs. Raptors: 1H MoneylineMagic won
- Magic vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Magic vs. Raptors: O/U 219.5Under won
- Magic vs. Raptors: O/U 220.5Under won
- Magic vs. Raptors: O/U 222.5Under won
- Magic vs. Raptors: O/U 223.5Under won
- Magic vs. Raptors: O/U 224.5Under won
- Spread: Magic (-1.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Magic (-2.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.