NBA · resolved market
Magic vs. Raptors: O/U 222.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07344cd8de2c4e368271fea3764c96ff3686774d50d4442c9c4669c0d2b04393
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,353
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,253
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,353 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x647e…6d10backed Over | 47c | 9,663$4,498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,498 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 54c | 8,842$4,732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,109.93 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Under | 52c | 2,400$1,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,152 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc96…8a0bbacked Under | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x926f…5626backed Over | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.9wins | -0.32per pick | 49cpaid | -66%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf0…1e2abacked Under | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 47c | 1,560$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738.15 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 49c | 1,411$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.19 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 44c | 1,179$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.59 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…0a77backed Under | 54c | 1,025$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475 | 157 | 56.7%89 W · 68 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cae…a00abacked Under | 53c | 894.11$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.23 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +5.9wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed Under | 56c | 719.32$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.5 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Over | 44c | 693.32$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.06 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 48c | 570.99$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.29 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 47c | 399.98$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.99 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72e4…0369backed Over | 46c | 313.38$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.06 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…55e8backed Over | 47c | 275.36$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.42 | 237 | 47.7%113 W · 124 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Over | 46c | 174.74$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.38 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 44c | 128$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.21 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 45c | 89.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 48c | 55.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…47a4backed Under | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Under | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 516 | 51.2%264 W · 252 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…2041backed Under | 57c | 35.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 195 | 48.7%95 W · 100 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9318…22b8backed Over | 49c | 32.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | -12.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 47c | 31.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d9…0092backed Under | 53c | 23.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 762 | 50.4%384 W · 378 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd431…06d4backed Under | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…d43cbacked Over | 49c | 21.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 288 | 52.8%152 W · 136 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 51c | 21.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dd…95ccbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Magic vs. Raptors: O/U 222.5this page
- Magic vs. RaptorsRaptors won
- Magic vs. Raptors: 1H MoneylineMagic won
- Magic vs. Raptors: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Magic vs. Raptors: O/U 219.5Under won
- Magic vs. Raptors: O/U 220.5Under won
- Magic vs. Raptors: O/U 221.5Under won
- Magic vs. Raptors: O/U 223.5Under won
- Magic vs. Raptors: O/U 224.5Under won
- Spread: Magic (-1.5)Raptors won
- Spread: Magic (-2.5)Raptors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.