TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Magic vs. Raptors

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Raptorsof Magic, Raptors
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,575,775
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,642,904

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,575,775 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,261 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0d3b…c46bbacked Magic53c544,735$288,709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288,709.447745.5%35 W · 42 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Raptors47c448,205$210,657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237,548.8926253.8%141 W · 121 L+10.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc2e7…be51backed Magic53c295,657$156,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156,699.8810049%49 W · 51 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bc0…4429backed Raptors48c187,048$89,783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97,264.8248343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe73e…74febacked Raptors48c145,083$70,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75,053.011471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.7wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+46.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Raptors47c129,999$61,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68,899.4647848.1%230 W · 248 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Magic52c73,213$38,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,029.2624650%123 W · 123 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Raptors47c66,287$31,468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,819.421,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x060e…2384backed Raptors48c62,376$29,941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,435.758037.5%30 W · 50 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-7.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b6c…6305backed Magic52c55,498$28,838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,837.737941.8%33 W · 46 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+20.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d16…d24dbacked Magic51c51,099$26,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,060.258961.8%55 W · 34 L+0.4wins0.00per pick61cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Magic51c49,247$25,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,116.212,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Raptors47c43,797$20,799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,998.0348046%221 W · 259 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd538…cc31backed Raptors49c40,000$19,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,40021450%107 W · 107 L-14.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-12.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d56…7486backed Magic52c40,000$20,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,80017861.2%109 W · 69 L+11.4wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Raptors49c36,284$17,779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,504.9417554.9%96 W · 79 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Raptors47c34,537$16,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,424.574,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Magic52c29,516$15,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,348.2556945.3%258 W · 311 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Raptors20c27,205$5,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,773.664,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x959a…7b64backed Raptors14c23,673$3,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,393.093357.6%19 W · 14 L+5.3wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+42%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe6a3…2f0dbacked Raptors48c23,016$11,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,015.7619560%117 W · 78 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Magic52c22,081$11,454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,453.671,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Magic52c21,960$11,419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,419.4259347%279 W · 314 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6576…6cc5backed Magic52c20,000$10,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,4002450%12 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe12a…67efbacked Magic52c20,000$10,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,40015841.1%65 W · 93 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe734…8f6abacked Magic52c20,000$10,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,40019150.8%97 W · 94 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xedc8…cca9backed Raptors48c20,000$9,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,40020551.2%105 W · 100 L+8.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc480…0caabacked Raptors48c20,000$9,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,399.9913249.2%65 W · 67 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe258…2330backed Raptors48c20,000$9,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,399.9823245.3%105 W · 127 L+0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Magic52c19,051$9,877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,876.599,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf72a…dc8fbacked Magic52c19,000$9,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,88010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1747…7e6ebacked Raptors48c19,000$9,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,879.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde6d…0926backed Magic66c18,549$12,303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,302.582352.2%12 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b6a…e11cbacked Magic52c18,000$9,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,360250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x920a…e4f2backed Magic52c18,000$9,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,36010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x828c…726fbacked Raptors49c18,000$8,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,1801100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked Raptors46c16,130$7,483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,647.0544654.3%242 W · 204 L+21.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc62a…c2c7backed Raptors47c15,000$7,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,9503063.3%19 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Raptors48c15,000$7,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,799.9635235.8%126 W · 226 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ed4…4547backed Magic52c14,689$7,638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,638.2919351.8%100 W · 93 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-1.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Magic61c11,582$7,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,055.415,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Magic51c11,110$5,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,665.9836741.4%152 W · 215 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Magic52c10,508$5,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,465.962,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Raptors31c10,116$3,181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,934.31,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Magic46c10,109$4,607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,606.841,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Raptors36c10,000$3,629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,371.721,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Magic53c10,000$5,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,3001,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8323…ba89backed Magic52c9,615$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Magic53c9,103$4,824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,824.3848347.2%228 W · 255 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8b…77d4backed Raptors48c8,799$4,223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,575.3511244.6%50 W · 62 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35bd…1ecfbacked Magic51c8,700$4,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,436.8814945.6%68 W · 81 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Raptors48c8,451$4,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,418.4944459.7%265 W · 179 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Magic52c8,423$4,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,379.962,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x019d…2b01backed Raptors49c8,163$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,163.2729037.9%110 W · 180 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd0b3…cb3abacked Raptors57c8,120$4,668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,451.77450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked Raptors19c7,711$1,473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,238.334227.2%93 W · 249 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Magic52c6,731$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,50076746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e4a…311cbacked Magic51c6,210$3,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,167.0811443.9%50 W · 64 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x90f6…48f3backed Magic52c6,135$3,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,1906256.5%35 W · 27 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Magic46c5,973$2,748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,748.043,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Raptors47c5,775$2,714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,060.751,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Magic62c5,551$3,431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,430.742,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Magic52c4,846$2,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,519.926,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa312…c8a0backed Raptors48c4,600$2,208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,391.99771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+38.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Magic52c4,242$2,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,205.8474748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Magic52c4,200$2,184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1841,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d20…a976backed Raptors19c4,136$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,335.5414248.6%69 W · 73 L-12.2wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-17.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1ac2…ca2ebacked Raptors47c4,000$1,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1201080%8 W · 2 L+3.1wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+60.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7b43…d0bbbacked Raptors48c4,000$1,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,079.961181.8%9 W · 2 L+3.8wins+0.35per pick47cpaid+92.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xc764…3e79backed Magic51c3,700$1,887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8871656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+18.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Magic51c3,456$1,771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,771.3548944.2%216 W · 273 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Magic36c3,446$1,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,236.571,05549.9%526 W · 529 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9534…1fe8backed Raptors47c3,393$1,609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,783.7326247.7%125 W · 137 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Magic49c3,372$1,659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,658.963,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Raptors48c3,200$1,526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,674.162,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Raptors38c3,196$1,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,991.51,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7a7…fc0dbacked Magic52c3,100$1,612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,612728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-55.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf332…3c89backed Raptors38c3,052$1,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,904.5165649.2%323 W · 333 L+9.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cf5…6440backed Magic52c3,000$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,56046928.4%133 W · 336 L+2.3wins0.00per pick28cpaid-4.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Raptors47c3,000$1,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,59010057%57 W · 43 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Raptors47c2,944$1,385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,559.872,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66cd…0d77backed Magic51c2,900$1,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4791250%6 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Raptors47c2,564$1,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,358.71,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Raptors47c2,539$1,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,345.5772450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x697d…985dbacked Raptors48c2,500$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3002441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd1f…6623backed Magic52c2,500$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3002445.8%11 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x161e…6ef0backed Raptors44c2,463$1,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,379.125664.3%36 W · 20 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb0e…61d9backed Magic52c2,400$1,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,24810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3eb6…2abbbacked Magic2c2,400$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508512.9%11 W · 74 L+5.2wins+0.06per pick7cpaid+61.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Magic50c2,400$1,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,193.4778445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb875…68a8backed Magic52c2,380$1,238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,237.610144.6%45 W · 56 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x45e1…c872backed Magic52c2,360$1,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,227.23253.1%17 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa21…1438backed Raptors45c2,273$1,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,249.5116848.2%81 W · 87 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Raptors18c2,250$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,835.8542640.4%172 W · 254 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x816b…d69dbacked Magic65c2,235$1,453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,452.7924752.6%130 W · 117 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1692…831fbacked Magic72c2,153$1,544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,544.256051.7%31 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x964f…ca58backed Raptors61c2,145$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$844.982751.9%14 W · 13 L+2.8wins+0.10per pick41cpaid+35.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf4e1…ee5abacked Raptors48c2,105$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,104.7118764.7%121 W · 66 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdeaf…dbaabacked Raptors23c2,093$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,614.3337930.6%116 W · 263 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Raptors47c2,087$981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,106.111,66752.7%878 W · 789 L+45.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.