TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Magic vs. Raptors: O/U 224.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,039
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,763

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,039 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xac81…3fd2backed Over45c9,600$4,320 inLost-$4,32010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa85c…54b5backed Under55c7,000$3,850 inWon+$3,150450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8bd…11bebacked Under55c2,600$1,430 inWon+$1,1703100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+90.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over45c1,649$742 inLost-$741.759,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over45c1,075$484 inLost-$483.532,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under59c1,030$604 inWon+$426.278,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Over43c701.65$303 inLost-$303.411,29448.1%623 W · 671 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd3f…44f1backed Under59c677.97$400 inWon+$277.9725452.8%134 W · 120 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over41c299.98$123 inLost-$122.992,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b23…39fdbacked Over44c227.27$100 inLost-$1004447.7%21 W · 23 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1889…0714backed Under58c110.63$64 inWon+$46.4621056.2%118 W · 92 L+10.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+15.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Over42c109.8$46 inLost-$46.122,90238.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L-51.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00fe…eff7backed Under60c104$62 inWon+$41.68552.9%45 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Over42c95.24$40 inLost-$402,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Over42c59.99$25 inLost-$25.21,69544.7%758 W · 937 L-30.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under51c55.95$29 inWon+$27.371,78653.2%950 W · 836 L+52.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over42c52.41$22 inLost-$21.923,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8de1…2d12backed Under57c35.13$20 inWon+$15.1316968.6%116 W · 53 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over42c33$14 inLost-$13.862,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Under50c29.23$15 inWon+$14.623,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Over42c27$11 inLost-$11.3444648%214 W · 232 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Under57c25.16$14 inWon+$10.733,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f71…b80ebacked Over80c25$20 inLost-$201942.1%8 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-27.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x06f4…758dbacked Under60c25$15 inWon+$103348.5%16 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7602…2775backed Under59c20.48$12 inWon+$8.450648%243 W · 263 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.