TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Magic vs. Raptors: O/U 220.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$25,187
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,225

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,187 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Under49c10,210$4,990 inWon+$5,220.59,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x647e…6d10backed Over52c4,934$2,565 inLost-$2,56530%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x535b…25a9backed Over51c3,920$2,000 inLost-$2,00012555.2%69 W · 56 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c85…f893backed Over49c2,000$980 inLost-$9801315.4%2 W · 11 L-4.2wins-0.32per pick48cpaid-69.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xce2f…aa56backed Under51c2,000$1,020 inWon+$9802152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4a0…43cfbacked Under51c2,000$1,020 inWon+$9802356.5%13 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+12.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x270b…ff56backed Over49c2,000$980 inLost-$9801850%9 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b1d…1e31backed Under51c2,000$1,020 inWon+$9801947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Under50c2,000$1,000 inWon+$1,0001,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a4c…94fdbacked Over49c2,000$980 inLost-$9801428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.0wins-0.21per pick50cpaid-42.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x1041…f452backed Over50c1,842$921 inLost-$92126949.1%132 W · 137 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc90b…f45dbacked Over51c1,659$846 inLost-$846650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe962…663abacked Over48c999.99$480 inLost-$48084342.9%362 W · 481 L-39.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b28…66f0backed Under50c600$300 inWon+$30010351.5%53 W · 50 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9519…3b2ebacked Over51c588.24$300 inLost-$30017856.2%100 W · 78 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Under52c550$286 inWon+$2641,19747.5%569 W · 628 L-32.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb871…9f15backed Under49c500$245 inWon+$25559144.5%263 W · 328 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e00…eb46backed Over51c452.19$231 inLost-$230.6236351.2%186 W · 177 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under49c400$194 inWon+$2062,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8f2…4adebacked Over50c333.79$167 inLost-$166.9616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.35per pick52cpaid-65.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb2ca…d984backed Under50c201.8$100 inWon+$101.836450.8%185 W · 179 L-1.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Over51c200$102 inLost-$10278652.4%412 W · 374 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Over50c160$80 inLost-$8066046.8%309 W · 351 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Under40c100$40 inWon+$603,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d14…1eb4backed Under50c100$50 inWon+$5037352%194 W · 179 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Over60c100$60 inLost-$601,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Under52c100$52 inWon+$4865855.6%366 W · 292 L+27.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb460…041fbacked Under52c96.15$50 inWon+$46.158132.1%26 W · 55 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e06…b0d9backed Over51c90$46 inLost-$45.9757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under50c57.51$29 inWon+$28.9193849.7%466 W · 472 L+36.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x61ea…aa6fbacked Under49c47$23 inWon+$23.972100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick47cpaid+115.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over48c42$20 inLost-$20.358,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72ea…d4f2backed Over50c40.39$20 inLost-$2012052.5%63 W · 57 L-0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f34…1a46backed Under49c29.55$14 inWon+$15.072045%9 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaad7…5557backed Under52c23.89$12 inWon+$11.473452.9%18 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.