TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Ravens vs. Packers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Ravensof Ravens, Packers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,068,822
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,156,856

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,068,822 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 927 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6a72…33eebacked Packers50c848,036$428,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428,142.2130043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d3b…c46bbacked Ravens44c753,477$331,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421,947.3111145.9%51 W · 60 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Ravens44c208,649$92,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116,476.9486547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a55…f9bebacked Packers55c132,810$73,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73,045.571428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.1wins-0.22per pick51cpaid-39.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Ravens56c117,416$65,187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52,229.5347348.4%229 W · 244 L+1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Ravens60c111,497$67,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,329.4173651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d58…9a15backed Packers50c100,961$50,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,940.072740.7%11 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Packers56c89,286$50,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,000.165453.7%29 W · 25 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc3e…37efbacked Packers16c73,820$11,559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,559.327736.4%28 W · 49 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Ravens44c69,325$30,503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,821.8811544.3%51 W · 64 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-7.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Ravens45c60,000$27,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,999.9116051.9%83 W · 77 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x801e…ad90backed Packers55c55,780$30,624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,623.663050%15 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Packers57c53,044$30,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,263.3521254.2%115 W · 97 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Ravens57c50,233$28,881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,352.0675852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Packers59c50,000$29,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,50012144.6%54 W · 67 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb889…a430backed Packers59c50,000$29,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,5003850%19 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5da4…e203backed Packers28c50,000$13,911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,910.823548.6%17 W · 18 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+21.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Ravens43c35,957$15,323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,633.7214342%60 W · 83 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Ravens46c32,508$15,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,453.4218650%93 W · 93 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x88a2…d974backed Packers57c26,122$14,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,80013142%55 W · 76 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d19…733abacked Ravens44c25,663$11,292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,371.151957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x57cd…a0fbbacked Ravens45c25,000$11,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,7502965.5%19 W · 10 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+30.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Ravens63c24,209$15,159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,049.9923244.4%103 W · 129 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Ravens61c20,000$12,211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,78912748%61 W · 66 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x45d5…47efbacked Packers61c19,603$11,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,957.922626.9%7 W · 19 L-5.4wins-0.21per pick48cpaid-48%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xf5d1…cdc9backed Packers6c18,966$1,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,086.852626.9%7 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5176…9229backed Packers27c18,651$5,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,028.56333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+52.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Ravens44c18,157$7,915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,241.6783147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Packers55c17,950$9,914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,914.0627454.7%150 W · 124 L+13.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6919…5effbacked Ravens39c17,497$6,892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,604.594852.1%25 W · 23 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4a3…0848backed Ravens45c17,380$7,821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,5594252.4%22 W · 20 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Ravens68c15,393$10,471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,922.1427644.2%122 W · 154 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Ravens42c15,000$6,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,70035848.6%174 W · 184 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9dd…3cc5backed Packers22c14,156$3,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,124.71931.6%6 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+28.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ca8…bf49backed Ravens78c13,358$10,428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,929.891936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8935…837dbacked Packers56c12,273$6,873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,872.767147.9%34 W · 37 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11e2…26ccbacked Packers56c12,000$6,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,719.939442.6%40 W · 54 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Ravens35c11,562$4,082 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,480.2819152.9%101 W · 90 L+0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8a5…122bbacked Packers56c11,446$6,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,4101464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+22.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7509…4b9dbacked Packers31c11,324$3,494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,494.013630.6%11 W · 25 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-24.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xef92…9df5backed Packers64c11,156$7,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,139.84250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87b6…4ababacked Ravens45c11,120$5,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,116.174452.3%23 W · 21 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Packers56c11,000$6,151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,150.944544.4%20 W · 25 L+6.4wins+0.14per pick30cpaid+37.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6b4f…37b8backed Packers56c10,991$6,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,155.162937.9%11 W · 18 L-8.4wins-0.29per pick67cpaid-49.1%equal weight33-0.16 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Packers60c10,989$6,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,620.067248.6%35 W · 37 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5677…2ce9backed Ravens68c10,777$7,298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,478.561866.7%12 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick63cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe622…18cabacked Packers0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Ravens68c9,406$6,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,046.0227348.7%133 W · 140 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Packers61c9,226$5,617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,616.9553348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Packers63c9,197$5,794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,794.2717648.9%86 W · 90 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8214…ef72backed Packers39c9,058$3,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,535.468350.6%42 W · 41 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Packers3c8,878$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.1633328.5%95 W · 238 L+16.7wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+19.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0549…c052backed Ravens44c8,698$3,827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,870.735855.2%32 W · 26 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe53f…62d7backed Packers39c8,368$3,223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,222.5511237.5%42 W · 70 L-10.8wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-24.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x28b1…5a3fbacked Packers58c8,181$4,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,759.769359.1%55 W · 38 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7320…28b4backed Packers55c8,000$4,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,399.983351.5%17 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa04e…376abacked Packers55c7,298$4,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,013.9728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick56cpaid-57.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x50dd…c186backed Packers57c7,292$4,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,156.182520%5 W · 20 L-2.7wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a09…3c83backed Packers67c7,190$4,782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,7821662.5%10 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee29…8c8bbacked Packers41c7,154$2,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,899.9250%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x48be…73a8backed Packers42c7,153$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0005650%28 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0026…1ed5backed Ravens73c7,081$5,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,881.054969.4%34 W · 15 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+18.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Packers38c7,043$2,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,665.5947738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Ravens67c6,540$4,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,135.4911643.1%50 W · 66 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Ravens42c6,137$2,597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,539.7554451.7%281 W · 263 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked Packers12c5,987$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$713.868737.9%33 W · 54 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-21.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Packers20c5,793$1,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,133.6720026%52 W · 148 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8366…21ebbacked Packers56c5,714$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,2001258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+16.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Packers0c5,621$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.71980%0 W · 98 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19ff…d0d0backed Packers53c5,561$2,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,9504240.5%17 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f5a…9ecdbacked Packers26c5,481$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4005038%19 W · 31 L+4.0wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+7.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Packers1c5,409$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.321486.8%10 W · 138 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick2cpaid+296.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a55…394ebacked Ravens58c5,320$3,094 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,226.446639.4%26 W · 40 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-27.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd27c…c081backed Packers63c5,270$3,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,320.12373.9%17 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick68cpaid+11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb973…ff16backed Packers39c5,125$1,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,998.753240.6%13 W · 19 L-3.2wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-21.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked Ravens67c5,092$3,396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,696.5115446.8%72 W · 82 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x088e…bc56backed Packers57c5,077$2,905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,905.21225%3 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-34.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Ravens45c5,044$2,292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,751.7512944.2%57 W · 72 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14ac…dd9fbacked Packers20c5,005$1,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,020.821723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-40.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x226b…cad6backed Ravens44c5,000$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,80023937.7%90 W · 149 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7592…f661backed Packers42c4,874$2,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,061.715736.8%21 W · 36 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+28.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Ravens40c4,805$1,919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,885.5622434.4%77 W · 147 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-19.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Packers57c4,671$2,662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,662.412744.9%57 W · 70 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2917…be8fbacked Packers25c4,643$1,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,182.853823.7%9 W · 29 L-4.8wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x7d43…bc5ebacked Packers61c4,605$2,821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,820.932360.9%14 W · 9 L+3.1wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+26.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7990…c870backed Packers53c4,554$2,393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3938953.9%48 W · 41 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe258…2330backed Packers61c4,545$2,772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,772.45955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+29.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xedc8…cca9backed Ravens39c4,542$1,771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,770.57540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94f1…b9e7backed Ravens45c4,536$2,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,503.962055%11 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+55.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Ravens40c4,473$1,799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,674.6931854.7%174 W · 144 L+16.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Ravens76c4,344$3,281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,062.7223850.8%121 W · 117 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x273c…7a42backed Packers55c4,316$2,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,394.636943.5%30 W · 39 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x657c…0cc5backed Ravens66c4,174$2,753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,420.791546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-15.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa30f…ba19backed Packers61c4,170$2,544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,543.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4691…997ebacked Ravens39c4,153$1,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,533.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Ravens41c4,029$1,671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,357.9951352.2%268 W · 245 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcdf6…d7f7backed Packers34c4,024$1,384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,383.862147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3a1…3529backed Packers25c4,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7ef5…325ebacked Packers56c3,750$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,10011154.1%60 W · 51 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Ravens44c3,636$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,036.1637350.9%190 W · 183 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.