NFL · resolved market
Ravens vs. Packers: O/U 38.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb732410d5710e3d82517be80c91b47d0262ad1785e63dc8bf2f9fde98dec0d66
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $198,927
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $201,694
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $198,927 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Under | 53c | 58,908$31,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,205.76 | 168 | 60.7%102 W · 66 L | +18.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Under | 52c | 53,279$27,705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,705.21 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 48c | 50,409$24,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,057.8 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777d…5143backed Under | 53c | 41,509$22,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,000 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…bd7abacked Over | 48c | 28,854$13,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,004.17 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed Over | 47c | 23,140$10,845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,295.09 | 274 | 54.7%150 W · 124 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 47c | 20,160$9,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,684.8 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 47c | 12,000$5,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,330 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 47c | 9,783$4,633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,149.63 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 50c | 9,235$4,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,600.38 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 50c | 7,500$3,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,750 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 6,114$2,954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,160 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 48c | 3,642$1,747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,895.28 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe235…aba2backed Under | 54c | 3,456$1,866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,866.18 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Under | 50c | 3,000$1,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,510 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Over | 47c | 3,000$1,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,590 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b22…c59cbacked Over | 48c | 3,000$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,560 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Over | 48c | 2,500$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,300 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 47c | 2,500$1,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,325 | 266 | 49.6%132 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d43…bc5ebacked Over | 49c | 2,481$1,216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,265.38 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…5d08backed Under | 56c | 2,337$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 51c | 2,039$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 212 | 54.2%115 W · 97 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…afb3backed Under | 54c | 1,852$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -9.4wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x94f1…b9e7backed Over | 47c | 1,500$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 46c | 1,500$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over | 48c | 1,458$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.16 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7104…afefbacked Over | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.83 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Over | 45c | 1,020$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.2 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked Over | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 148 | 37.2%55 W · 93 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51b…9606backed Over | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.39 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -7.8wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…47efbacked Over | 48c | 970$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.4 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -5.4wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -48%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf395…8e3cbacked Under | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 50c | 772.35$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.55 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 48c | 772$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.44 | 314 | 50%157 W · 157 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8052…1124backed Over | 47c | 600$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b3…0476backed Over | 48c | 520.83$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.83 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e24…b31fbacked Over | 48c | 520.83$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.83 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Over | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 44c | 500$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -11.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24da…9561backed Over | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…4547backed Under | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 124 | 45.2%56 W · 68 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 47c | 471.69$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.6 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Over | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc65c…6bc7backed Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.26per pick | 59cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…e124backed Under | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 166 | 48.2%80 W · 86 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb1…0812backed Over | 47c | 319.15$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.15 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -5.4wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 48c | 250$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 243 | 52.7%128 W · 115 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Over | 52c | 234.62$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.62 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 48c | 229.17$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.17 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe36a…d049backed Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed Over | 52c | 199.99$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7d…928abacked Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +5.6wins | +0.14per pick | 35cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x575b…14f0backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 48c | 97.92$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.92 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb78d…835dbacked Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 220 | 53.2%117 W · 103 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6db2…9289backed Over | 51c | 86.94$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f06…2614backed Over | 52c | 85$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cee…0ad1backed Over | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3620…2e6cbacked Over | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 48c | 75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.25 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 48c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed Over | 47c | 65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x313d…6f98backed Under | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 51c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 112 | 60.7%68 W · 44 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 46c | 43.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 209 | 44.5%93 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ad…5a42backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 153 | 53.6%82 W · 71 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8160…c908backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 54cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Under | 51c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…4c2cbacked Under | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf492…29c2backed Over | 47c | 23.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 102 | 52.9%54 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…4cc9backed Under | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbd…43bebacked Under | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x460b…19cbbacked Under | 49c | 20.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe15c…9e57backed Over | 51c | 20.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ravens vs. Packers: O/U 38.5this page
- 1H Spread: Packers (-0.5)Ravens won
- 1H Spread: Packers (-1.5)Ravens won
- 1H Spread: Packers (-2.5)Ravens won
- Ravens vs. PackersRavens won
- Ravens vs. Packers: 1H MoneylineRavens won
- Ravens vs. Packers: 1H O/U 19.5Over won
- Ravens vs. Packers: O/U 40.5Over won
- Ravens vs. Packers: O/U 41.5Over won
- Ravens vs. Packers: O/U 43.5Over won
- Ravens vs. Packers: O/U 45.5Over won
- Ravens vs. Packers: O/U 49.5Over won
- Ravens vs. Packers: O/U 51.5Over won
- Ravens vs. Packers: O/U 61.5Over won
- Spread: Packers (-2.5)Ravens won
- Spread: Packers (-3.5)Ravens won
- Spread: Packers (-4.5)Ravens won
- Spread: Ravens (-1.5)Ravens won
- Spread: Ravens (-4.5)Ravens won
- Spread: Ravens (-5.5)Ravens won
- Spread: Ravens (-6.5)Ravens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.